A surprise ceasefire between Palestinian militants in Gaza and the Israeli military appeared to hold for its opening day yesterday, raising the first hopes for months of a return to peace negotiations.
The dawn truce got off to a shaky start as some militants fired several of their crude rockets into southern Israel in the early morning. But Israeli troops did not respond, and Palestinian officials said later they believed the ceasefire was still intact. The agreement, brokered by the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, and offered to the Israelis in a late-night telephone call on Saturday, may bring to an end five months of violence in Gaza that came at huge cost.
Israeli troops withdrew from Gaza overnight, and Ehud Olmert, Israel's prime minister, suggested yesterday that he did not intend to retaliate against the initial ceasefire violations. "We will show the necessary restraint and patience - certainly in the coming days," he said.
Later, he held out the possibility that the ceasefire could lead to a change of direction in the worsening relationship between Israel and the Palestinians.
"All of these things ultimately could lead to one thing - the opening of serious, real, open and direct negotiations between us so that we can move forward towards a comprehensive agreement," said Mr Olmert. There have been no significant peace talks since the second Palestinian uprising began six years ago.
However, many obstacles remain. Palestinian militants are still holding Corporal Gilad Shalit, the soldier whose capture in June triggered the latest crisis. Israel is withholding the $60m (£31m) in monthly tax revenues it should pass to the Palestinian Authority, while western governments in the so-called Quartet - America, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations - are freezing all direct financial support. They say the flow of money will not resume until there is a Palestinian government that recognises Israel's right to exist, halts violence and accepts previous peace deals.
Hamas, the militant Islamic organisation elected into government this year, rejects those terms, and efforts to form a more moderate coalition with its political rival Fatah have stumbled repeatedly. Those efforts will now restart.
The dispute with Israel and the Quartet is not simply political. The economic effect has been to drive Gaza's 1.3 million people ever deeper into poverty. More than 160,000 civil servants, including doctors and teachers, in both Gaza and the occupied West Bank have not received their salaries since March. In addition, the latest ceasefire appears to deal only with Gaza, leaving open the possibility of continued clashes in the West Bank.
President George Bush is due in Jordan this week for talks on Iraq and the Middle East, and it is possible that his visit prompted the ceasefire. Further steps to signal an improved situation would be the release of the Israeli soldier and a meeting between Mr Olmert and Mr Abbas.
The latter sent his security forces out to the Gaza border yesterday in an effort to prevent further rocket launches by militants. But his control over groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad - both of whose militants claimed responsibility for yesterday's rockets - is limited. He needs the ceasefire as much as anybody in an attempt to strengthen his position within the Palestinian political sphere.
Some remained wary. "Let's hope that's just the problems of the beginning," Miri Eisin, an Israeli spokeswoman, said of the rockets. "But if Israel is attacked, we will respond. If there are Palestinian factions that are not part of the ceasefire, it's hard to see how it will hold."