中华护理杂志 ›› 2022, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (11): 1337-1344.DOI: 10.3761/j.issn.0254-1769.2022.11.009
收稿日期:
2021-12-07
出版日期:
2022-06-10
发布日期:
2022-06-15
通讯作者:
付秀荣,E-mail: 940813036@qq.com作者简介:
徐苗苗:女,本科(硕士在读),护师,E-mail: xmm620@163.com
XU Miaomiao(), FU Xiurong(), ZHANG Na, WANG Yue, SHI Fangzhu
Received:
2021-12-07
Online:
2022-06-10
Published:
2022-06-15
摘要:
目的 分析老年结肠镜检查患者肠道准备失败的危险因素,并构建风险评分模型,为制订针对性的干预措施提供依据。 方法 采用便利抽样法,选取2021年5月—10月在太原市某三级甲等医院进行结肠镜检查的610例老年患者作为调查对象,采用随机数字表法分为建模组(406例)和验证组(204例)。依据肠道准备质量,将建模组患者分为肠道准备成功组和失败组,采用Logistic回归分析确定肠道准备失败的独立危险因素,并构建风险评分模型。采用Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2检验及受试者操作特征曲线下面积评价模型的预测效果。 结果 Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄>65岁、BMI≥24、合并便秘、合并糖尿病、有结直肠手术史、首次进行结肠镜检查是老年患者肠道准备失败的独立危险因素,相应的风险评分依次为2、2、3、2、5、4分,评分≥8分为高风险人群。建模组检验结果显示,Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2=8.969,P=0.255;受试者操作特征曲线下面积为0.717(P<0.001),灵敏度为50.89%,特异度为79.59%。验证组检验结果显示,Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2=4.188,P=0.840;受试者操作特征曲线下面积为0.720(P<0.001),灵敏度为48.38%,特异度为81.69%,正确率为71.57%。 结论 该研究构建的风险评分模型的预测效果良好,可为临床医护人员评估老年结肠镜检查患者肠道准备失败的风险提供参考。
徐苗苗, 付秀荣, 张娜, 王越, 史方竹. 老年结肠镜检查患者肠道准备失败风险评分模型的构建及验证[J]. 中华护理杂志, 2022, 57(11): 1337-1344.
XU Miaomiao, FU Xiurong, ZHANG Na, WANG Yue, SHI Fangzhu. Development and validation of a risk score model for inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy in elderly patients[J]. Chinese Journal of Nursing, 2022, 57(11): 1337-1344.
表1 老年结肠镜检查患者肠道准备失败的单因素分析[例(百分比,%)]
Table 1 Univariate analysis of the factors of inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy in elderly patients [cases(percentage,%)]
表3 老年结肠镜检查患者肠道准备失败的多因素分析及风险评分
Table 3 Logistic regression analysis and risk score of the factors of inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy in elderly patients
图1 建模组肠道准备失败风险评分模型的受试者操作特征曲线
Figure 1 Receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk score model for inadequate bowel preparation in the development group
图2 验证组肠道准备失败风险评分模型的受试者操作特征曲线
Figure 2 Receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk score model for inadequate bowel preparation in the validation group
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