Interests of Belarus residents by search queries in Google and Yandex

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Annotation

This paper presents the results of analyzing data on the preferences of Belarusian residents based on information about search activity. To collect the public attention indicator, the data were obtained through Google Trends and Yandex Wordstat services. Google Trends is a tool from Google that shows a numerical representation of how much a particular topic is of interest to users in the world or in a particular country, for a particular period and in a particular location relative to the total number of search queries. Google Trends takes the search volume for a particular query and divides it by the total number of searches performed during a given time period and in a given geographic region. The resulting ratio is then scaled between 0 and 100, which is used to create a graph. Google Trends removes data on repeated searches by the same user over a short period of time to give a more accurate representation of search popularity. A line pointing down means that the relative popularity of a search term is decreasing, but not necessarily that the total number of searches for that term is decreasing, but that its popularity relative to other searches is decreasing.

Yandex Wordstat is a word matching service that allows you to assess user interest in a certain topic and get information about the queries of Yandex users. It allows you to find out how many users of a particular geographical area in a given time period are searching for a particular word or phrase.

The search behavior of a mass user on the Internet is a fairly accurate representation of public attention. If people are willing to spend effort and time searching for information about an issue, these same people must have a noticeable interest in that issue.[1] Searching for information about an issue on the Internet is to some extent driven by thinking about it[2].

In the research, searches were filtered to look at the entire volume of search interest in Belarus at different time intervals. The data set of search queries outside Belarus was excluded from the sample, as it would distort the result due to the impossibility of verification of Belarusian citizens living in other countries.

As of January 1, 2023, the population of Belarus was 9.2 million people.[3]

According to the latest available UN data, 1.5 million Belarusians will live outside Belarus in 2020[4]. At the beginning of 2023, there were 8.3 million Internet users in Belarus, the Internet penetration rate was 86.9%.[5] Google and Yandex are the main search resources used by residents of Belarus.[6]

All terms researched were in Russian and are translated into English in this paper.

Search engines in Belarus

The most popular search engines in Belarus are Google (71%) and Yandex (28%). 
In the period from 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-16, a drop in Google search engine traffic from the territory of Belarus was recorded, which was due to the blocking that took place after the presidential election.


In 2015, the share of Google and Yandex were on par with each other at around 45%.As of October 2023, Google is the most popular search engine with 71% share.

War

Since February 2022, the interest of the residents of Belarus has been aroused by the theme of war and Ukraine.

The penetration of Russian narratives has an impact on changing public attitudes.

Under the influence of propaganda, citizens tend to panic. In March and October 2022, citizens of Belarus were looking for bomb shelters and potassium iodide, fearing war in Belarus and a nuclear bomb.

In the spring of 2022, Belarus saw a significant surge of interest in exchange rates.

There was a surge of interest in the word "credit" at the end of 2021.

There is also an increased interest in the topic of obtaining visas and apostille. This fact is a sign of possible departure of citizens for emigration. No interest in obtaining alternative passports advertised by a group of citizens from the "Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya" was registered in search queries. This topic is not in the focus of attention of the country's residents. The surge of interest in VPN search is caused by objective reasons and is related to user security issues, as well as gaining access to blocked sites.

Media

Since February 2022, news residents of Belarus have shown more interest in events in the world, Ukraine and Russia.

According to Google, Belarus' domestic news has taken a back seat.

Belarus is fully dependent on Russian media for information. This factor influences the political situation.

State and opposition media in Belarus are considerably inferior to Russian media in terms of popularity. Non-state media operating in emigration face difficulties in disseminating material, there is no correspondent network inside the country.

Since the beginning of 2022, the residents of Belarus have significantly increased their interest in searching for Russian political talk shows. This trend shows that there is a huge demand for such programs. The influence of one-sided propaganda without any alternative information has a detrimental effect on the state of society. The state and opposition media in Belarus failed to create quality projects that would gather hundreds of thousands of viewers every day.

The leading opposition resource of Belarus is Charter97. Blogger Yury Podoliaka has gained a foothold in the information field. The positions in Yandex search queries to the Russian edition of "Komsomolskaya Pravda" and Nexta resource are presented for example.

Residents of Belarus are actively interested in the future. Tarot cards are the main source of forecasts. Also, in some periods there is interest in the Bulgarian clairvoyant Vanga. Through such tools of influence false information and propaganda fakes are often thrown in, for example, about the third world war, the collapse of the dollar, aliens from outer space, etc.

Entertainment

During 2023 there is an increase in requests for various leisure activities. Especially high dynamics during school and New Year vacations.

Protests

The topic of protests in Belarus has left the agenda. Political prisoners are not among the priorities of the residents.

Religion

Interest in the topic of religion is observed during periods of religious holidays. The most popular references to the words "prayer" and "Orthodox".

Jobs

There has been a steady trend of interest in job vacancies among residents, which may be a sign of lack of any permanent employment or dissatisfaction with current activities.

Shopping

During the period of instability on the currency market, residents of Belarus show increased interest in buying apartments, houses, cars and household appliances. However, this does not mean buying itself, but only indicates an interest and, possibly, a study of prices on the market.

During the panic associated with the war and currency fluctuations, there was a heightened interest in long-storage products.

Cuisine

The leading references to the words: cutlets, pancakes, solyanka, borsch, draniki.

Politics

In the period from October 2021 to September 2023, according to Yandex Wordstat, the highest interest is observed in the figures of Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Zelensky and Joe Biden. The surge was recorded in February-March 2022, which is associated with the outbreak of war. Interest in Lukashenko in May 2023 was caused by information about his health condition.

This dynamic is also visible in Google search queries.

Interest in opposition politicians is significantly lower among users from Belarus. The trend of the last months shows that all opposition politicians are at approximately the same level. The interest to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has fallen several times. Over the past year there is an equalization of attention to opposition politicians and representatives of the authorities. In September 2023, the interest to the person of Natalia Kochanova has significantly increased. This can be seen in the search engines Yandex and Google. The authorities have more resources to influence the situation in Belarus and to shape the news agenda. Any informational occasions attract interest to personalities, so the dynamics is not sustainable.

There is a complete lack of interest in the advisers of the "Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya" among the residents of Belarus. Interest in them is at the level of statistical error. While search queries to Russian and Ukrainian politicians are many times higher. This is explained by the absence of the result of work, any program and numerous scandals.

Recently, there has been a lot of speculation about how things were during the presidential election. The time period from May to August 2020 shows that the interest in the opposition candidates was at the level, and in some periods even higher than in the figure of Alexander Lukashenko. This is due to numerous informational occasions, involvement of people in the presidential campaign, collection of signatures, arrest and inadmissibility of candidates, participation in rallies. Unlike his opponents, Lukashenko did not run a presidential campaign, and few rallies in his support were held only after the elections were over.

According to Google trends, significant interest in politicians was seen during the presidential election in the summer of 2020 and declined significantly thereafter.

There is practically no interest in political parties in the country. This is due to the fact that they did not play any role in the socio-political life. At the beginning of May 2023, the party "Belaya Rus" was registered, as well as the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus, the Communist Party and the Republican Party of Labor and Justice were re-registered. All opposition parties were liquidated and their activists fell under repression.

Conclusion

In the conditions of difficulties in conducting regular qualitative sociological research, an important tool for measuring public sentiment is the analysis of statistics of queries in Yandex and Google.

The presented results of the study of the preferences of the residents of Belarus based on the data of search queries show several important trends.

Over the past two years, a decline in interest in protest activity has been recorded. This was the result of repressions, information cleansing and lack of results on the part of the opposition. However, any cataclysms, currency collapse, internal and external challenges can provoke panic in society with unpredictable consequences.

Russia has significantly increased its informed presence in Belarus since 2020, which is a threat to the country's independence. State-owned Russian media have a significant influence, pushing Kremlin narratives. In the first months, the war in Ukraine influenced the behavior of citizens who were concerned about domestic issues, keeping their savings in a reliable currency, and personal security. After a while, interest in the situation in Ukraine began to wane. Through the influence of state media, the use of the term "Special Military Operation" increased.

State TV channels of Belarus, unlike Russian ones, are not subject to the EU sanctions, which include blocking their context on YouTube. The lack of material and technical basis for non-state media and independent bloggers to create high-quality interesting videos and talk shows is a factor. The restrictions imposed by YouTube and the EU countries on Belarus had the exact opposite result. The sanctions affected bloggers who could have developed through advertising revenue. Since the spring of 2022, monetization of private bloggers has fallen tenfold, making it impossible to have enough money to maintain the channels. State media have found themselves in a significantly advantageous position, reinforcing their propaganda narrative and eliminating competitors from the market.

The development of alternative media is a significant factor in countering external information influences. The EU has created a mechanism of political, administrative and financial dependence of non-governmental media on one political group representing a small segment of the democratic movement and lacking broad support among the population.

Over the past three years, interest in opposition politicians has dropped significantly. This is due to the launched flywheel of repression, the cleansing of the information field inside the country, the lack of resources for the development of quality independent media, political censorship in non-state opposition media, the fragmentation of political forces, and numerous scandals among the opposition.

The so-called "united transitional cabinet" created in August 2022 by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the new Coordination Council formed in exile have not become subjects that arouse interest among the population of Belarus. The absence of elections and the absence of citizens' participation in the formation of political institutions lead to the fading of public interest in the activities of the opposition and politicians. This dynamic is an objective process of ineffective activity of donor countries and funds working in the direction of Belarus. Unelected political institutions imposed on society by EU countries as legitimate centers lead to a significant decrease in the support of the Belarusian population for the opposition and disappointment in European values. This process tends to intensify.

The next parliamentary elections in Belarus, which will be held in February 2024, as well as presidential elections in the future, will be rigged in favor of the authorities and will lead to an even greater disconnection of the influence of the opposition in exile on the situation inside the country. Elections, especially presidential elections, traditionally increase citizens' demand for politics due to the activation of candidates, media and public expectations.

A possible counteraction is to hold alternative online elections of the representative body of the people of Belarus, which will open new opportunities for overcoming the political crisis. Critically important is to hold them on a neutral platform with international campaigning experience and reputation in the market, not engaged with any of the domestic political actors. Such a move could help to restore interest in politics, enhance regional security and reduce tensions in Europe. Proposals by some opposition politicians to hold elections only among emigrants, as well as engaging an organization without international experience and licenses, will lead to a significant erosion of trust in the democratic movement on the part of the citizens of Belarus.

[1] Olds C. 2013. Assessing Presidential Agenda-Setting Capacity: Dynamic Comparisons of Presidential, Mass Media, and Public Attention to Economic Issues. Congress & the Presidency. 40 (3): 255–284.

[2] Ripberger, Joseph T. 2011. “Capturing Curiosity: Using Internet Search Trends to Measure Public Attentiveness.” Policy Studies Journal 39 (2): 239–59.

[3] https://www.belstat.gov.by/upload-belstat/upload-belstat-pdf/oficial_statistika/2023/Naselenie_2022.pdf

[4]https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2020_international_migration_highlights.pdf 

[5] https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2023-belarus

[6] https://bolkunets.org/news/reyting-populyarnykh-poiskovykh-sistem-i-novostnykh-resursov-v-belarusi-v-2022-godu