In brief

The president, Evariste Ndayishimiye, will remain in office for his entire term, which runs until 2027. The regime will continue to curb democratic freedoms and suppress political dissent, leading to intermittent protests, but this will not pose a threat to overall stability. Policy— underpinned by an ongoing IMF deal—will focus on containing still high inflation, fiscal consolidation and strengthening of foreign-exchange reserves. Progress, however, will be slow, reflecting widespread corruption, and lack of regulatory transparency.  Real GDP growth will accelerate in 2024-25, driven by strong government spending and investment in capital projects and by increasing mining and agricultural sector export earnings. Growth, will remain below potential, however, as resumption of budgetary inflows from the EU remains constrained by slow growth in the euro zone.

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