When Seiji Maehara, a Democratic Party for the People member of Japan’s parliament, visited the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) headquarters on July 3, he described TPP Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) as the “eye of a typhoon.”

He might have been describing Ko’s recent momentum, which has been building with the intensity of strengthening tropical storm. He has placed no worse than second among the three candidates in every presidential election poll released since the end of May and continues to narrow the gap with the frontrunner, Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

On Ko’s YouTube channel, which has 710,000 subscribers, two videos that were released in June have drawn more 1 million views. One of them, showing a clip of his conversation with a student from China at Waseda University in Japan on June 5, has accumulated 1.67 million views.

Finding new fans

Taipei City Councilor Huang Ching-yin (黃瀞瑩) of Ko’s TPP suggested that the wave was being driven by dissatisfaction with the ruling party or social angst, and that people previously unfamiliar with Ko were starting to learn about and pay attention to him.

That represents a breakthrough for Ko and the party he founded in 2019, which has had trouble gaining traction with people outside its core support group.

Huang said there was a sustained period of considerable overlap in viewers of Ko’s social media posts and YouTube videos, making it hard to spread his message and communicate with “non-Ko fans.”

But when Ko vaulted past the Kuomintang’s (KMT) presidential candidate, New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜), in the polls at the end of May, there was a dramatic change.

“Now it’s not impossible that Ko actually wins the election, and the likelihood of that happening is actually on the rise,” former TPP official and former Taipei City government consultant Chang Yisan (張益贍) said.

Chang, who has made a complete break with his former party and is now a political advisor determined to prevent Ko from becoming president, personally witnessed the first time the “white force” swept up voters.  

In 2013, Ko, then still a physician at National Taiwan University, used his medical expertise to analyze what really happened to Hung Chung-chiu (洪仲丘), an army corporal who died in July 2013 after suffering from heatstroke and going into coma while doing physical drills as punishment for carrying a camera phone on base.

The perceived slow pace of the investigation into Hung’s death and apparent attempt by the military to downplay what happened sparked anger and protests by a group known as the “White Shirts,” and Ko became one of its symbols.

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Similar social forces not framed by political parties continued to crystallize, peaking in 2014 with the Sunflower Movement, when students occupied Taiwan’s Legislature for weeks to protest an attempt by the KMT to pass a free trade pact on services with China.

Ko, who supported these citizens movements, accurately perceived that the KMT government at the time had lost people’s trust but that society was also tired by the constant wrangling between the KMT-led “blue” camp and DPP-led “green” camp. Waving the banner of a “great opposition alliance” and benefiting from the tacit support of the DPP, which did not field its own candidate, Ko was elected Taipei mayor over a KMT candidate in late 2014.

Ko Wen-je, once a concession to the Democratic Progressive Party, is now a formidable foe. (Source: Ming-Tang Huang)

At the time, the political neophyte had his own pragmatic explanation of the origins of the “Ko Wen-je whirlwind,” saying that “voters were angry and they needed a release.” 

Ten years later, the desire for change in Taiwanese society has once again emerged.

On the surface, Ko’s base of support remains highly-educated young adults who have little party consciousness. Yet beyond his opposition to the “green” camp that now holds power, his personal image and campaign strategy are different from when he first ran for Taipei mayor in 2014.

As his city administration drifted apart from the DPP (which took power nationally in 2016), Ko’s team devised a series of steps to reshape Ko’s image. “The hope was to let him express himself freely and have him be the same person whether on or off camera,” Huang said.

For 20 years, only DPP and KMT candidates have been elected president in Taiwan. Whether Ko can shift the political landscape in Taiwan is worth expecting. (Source: Chien-Tong Wang)

On social media such as YouTube and Instagram favored by the younger generation, Ko’s image evolved from the elite “Ko P,” which stands for “Professor Ko,” to a more approachable uncle-like “A-bei,” and his number of subscribers and followers far surpass those of any other politician, including incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).   

Former TPP Legislator Tsai Pi-ru (蔡壁如) attributes Ko’s overwhelming edge among young adults to his direct, straightforward speaking style and mastery of language tools used by the younger generation. 

Ko, who has now completely distanced himself from the DPP, is also more pragmatic than in the past. A former TPP adviser said that when Ko talks about major issues, his top consideration is always whether “it can win him votes,” and he spends little time delving into policy details. 

Pragmatism favored by voters 

His conclusion after studying judicial reform was to “just have Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) be justice minister,” referring to a controversial former legislator and Sunflower Movement figure who is also a legal scholar. Rather than being ideologically rigid, he generally goes for the most beneficial choice in the moment. If public opinion turns, he quickly throws out a new issue to shift battle lines.

“You can praise him as being flexible, but you can also criticize as lacking core values,” said a former adviser.

That adviser said that Ko’s positions on relations with China and marriage equality has led to the loss of supporters from the Sunflower Movement generation, but his pragmatic, problem-solving approach unaffected by ideology has also earned him the backing of people with technical backgrounds who rarely engage in politics.

In 2014, Ko was elected to be the mayor of Taipei City for the first time. (Source: Chien-Tong Wang)

Another of Ko’s special characteristics is that he has not been embroiled in a corruption scandal since being in office. Taipei City Councilor Wang Shih-chien (王世堅) said that has earned him recognition from voters who are big on clean government. 

As for those who have long felt Ko lacked any core beliefs, more pragmatic-oriented voters see that as an advantage, interpreting it as being “nonconformist.”

Disappointment with the two major parties

Ko now has a new support base, and his election strategy has zeroed in on voters who are dissatisfied with the existing political environment and social status quo and want to vote for an unconventional politician. 

A former TPP adviser said the argument that “the blue and green camps have both had their shot; let’s give somebody else a chance” has begun to resonate in areas unrelated to politics as Ko’s poll numbers have surged and his internet reach has soared. Aside from a few well-known e-sport livestream hosts who have openly endorsed Ko, even car renovation channels have conducted random “street polls,” and support for Ko has gone mainstream.

City Councilor Wang bluntly assessed that some voters have lost hope in the KMT and are disappointed in the DPP, and Ko, representing a third force, has become a lure for voters unhappy with the status quo. 

“I keep reminding the party that the opponent it needs to pay attention to is Ko. He’s not only in the game, but there’s a chance he could gain even more ground,” the DPP’s Wang said.

National Taiwan University political science professor Chang Yu-tzung (張佑宗) said that compared to DPP supporters who are more cohesive, the voting habits of members of the blue camp and voters hoping for a change in power are more flexible. 

Thus, whoever between Ko and Hou can entrench themselves as second in the polls in the three-man race and become recognized as the more likely of the two “non-green forces” (KMT and TPP) to win, it will help that candidate consolidate their existing supporters and attract wait-and-see votes. 

Even the TPP’s Huang admits there is no way to predict whether Ko’s massive online popularity will translate to votes in the Jan. 13, 2024 presidential election. 

“We’ll have to watch whether the forces dissatisfied with the ruling party can coalesce into a tangible group,” she said.

“Converting” online support into real world ballots will be the Ko campaign’s biggest challenge, especially given the TPP’s lack of systematic support from local organizations and social groups, a major disadvantage in a nationwide election. The TPP will test its ability to mobilize people with concerts and a July rally in Taipei.

Ko Wen-je has regained the momentum last seen in his run for Taipei mayor in 2014, catapulting him out of the spoiler role many thought he would assume in the presidential race. 

But taking that momentum and turning it into an improbable election victory will require passing a far sterner test as the presidential campaign and its spotlight on him and the TPP intensify in the coming months.

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Translated by Luke Sabatier
Uploaded by Ian Huang