Aaron Civale is a name you’ve heard before. There is a good chance you’ve targeted him in drafts or used him as a streamer at some point since his debut with Cleveland in 2019.
His is a name you know, but not necessarily one you trust … until now, because Roto Rage believes Civale can be a key part of your rotation in 2024. Best part: He’s cheap — approximately an 18th-round pick in 12-team leagues or, maybe, $4 at auction.
In 13 starts with the Guardians last year, Civale was 5-2 with a 2.34 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, 2.6 walks per nine innings and 19 percent strikeout rate.
In early August, Civale was traded to Tampa Bay — where the righty went 2-3 with a 5.36 ERA, 1.368 WHIP, 2.2 walks per nine innings and a 29 percent strikeout rate in 10 starts.
Civale had the 17th-worst ERA over his 13-game stretch with the Rays, but his FIP (3.63) and xFIP (3.26) show he was unlucky. In addition to limiting free passes, his strikeout rate (11.5 per nine) soared, matching Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell. His strikeout-walk rate also improved, another good sign.
His strikeout numbers increased as he decreased the usage of his four-seamer, upped the usage of his sinker and continued to baffle with his curve (he had a 60 percent strikeout rate with the pitch in September).
Those numbers appear promising, but ultimately it is a small sample size from a pitcher who never has met expectations. There are so many hurlers out there with the same story, including one Roto Rage touted over and over last year: Zach Eflin.
Before 2023, Eflin was a middling, oft-injured pitcher for the Phillies who went 36-45 with a 4.49 ERA and pitched more than 128 innings just once from 2016-22. At age 29, and in his first season with the Rays, he finished sixth in Cy Young voting after posting career best marks in wins, ERA, walk rate, innings, opponents average, swinging-strike rate and WHIP.
In five seasons with Cleveland, Civale was an average, oft-injured pitcher who went 29-23 with a 3.77 ERA and pitched more than 100 innings in a season only once. Wanna guess how old will Civale be turning in June? (Hint from Captain Obvious: The same age Eflin was last year.)
Let’s take this comparison one step further, focusing on one pitch both used more than 20 percent of the time last year: the curveball.
Throughout Eflin’s career, opponents have hit .200 with a 16.6 swinging-strike rate against his curveball. He threw it 26.5 percent of the time in 2023, up from 20.1 percent in 2022; 10.8 percent in 2021; and 2.6 percent in 2016. Opponents hit .183 against it in 2023 with a 37.4 percent strikeout rate and 18.3 percent swinging-strike rate.
Civale has held opponents to a .183 average against his curve with a 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate. It is a pitch he used 24.5 percent of the time last year and opponents hit .188 against it with a 32.4 percent whiff rate.
Being in Tampa Bay is also a godsend. Did you know the Rays have not finished outside of the top five in team ERA since 2018, when they ranked sixth?
Civale doesn’t throw the ball particularly hard, nor is he the sexiest name available in your drafts. He does, however, have an average draft position of 217.5, according to Fantasy Alarm, which makes him an affordable option with a ton of upside — especially with the Rays’ ability to get the most out of their pitchers.
Don’t sleep on Civale!
A look at some other sleeper-caliber pitchers to target late in drafts:
Baltimore lefty John Means (258.6 ADP)) will start the season on the IL, but Roto Rage will gladly stash a pitcher who rarely issues walks (1.5 per nine for his career), owns a 3.65 ERA from 2019-23 and plays on a loaded Orioles squad.
In addition his 25.6 percent strikeout rate and .220 opponents average, Boston’s Kutter Crawford (261.88) also had a 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate and an xERA (3.25) that was nearly a full point lower than his actual ERA (4.04). In his first three outings this spring, he has allowed one run over eight innings while striking out seven and walking none. Yes, please!
Among pitchers who threw a minimum of 90 innings, Miami’s Edward Cabrera (270.48) had the 16th best strikeouts per nine and the 17th-best opponents average. He also had the second-worst walks per nine in that span, and even writing about him probably made his right shoulder impingement worse (he is injury prone). If he can stay healthy and keep the walks in check, he is a great late-round steal.
Luis Severino (278.25) is coming off an awful, injury-plagued (what else is new?) season with the Yankees. He has looked great in spring training for the Mets, even if the games mean about as much as medical advice from a toddler. The two-time All-Star is still just 30 years old and went 42-18 with a 3.10 ERA, 10.5 strikeouts per nine and a 1.064 WHIP from 2017-22. He is a low-cost/high-reward pitcher.
Washington’s MacKenzie Gore (290.83) has not (yet) lived up to the hype of being the third-overall pick in the 2017 draft. That being said, he is just 25. Among pitchers who tossed a minimum of 130 innings, the lefty ranked 21st in strikeout rate (26 percent) and 26th in swinging-strike rate (12.1 percent) last year. He also reduced his walk rate from 12 percent to 9.8 percent. The fact he could be one of your last picks, if not your last pick, is insane.
A.J. Puk (324.23) has never started a game in the majors, nor had he ever pitched more than 66 ¹/₃ innings in a season. He has struck out 11.2 per nine innings in his four-year career and limited opponents to a .235 average. Last year, he had a 3.97 ERA (3.04 xERA, 3.02 xFIP) while striking out 12.4 per nine innings. Opposing hitters had a .238 average against him. He is currently slotted in as a member of the Marlins’ rotation and has struck out 42.9 percent of the batters he has faced while not allowing a run this spring. With his current price, he is about as low-risk as you can get.
Starting pitcher rankings (Next week: Outfielders)
1. Spencer Strider, Atl
2. Corbin Burnes, Bal
3. Zack Wheeler, Phi
4. Zac Gallen, Ari
5. George Kirby, Sea
6. Kevin Gausman, Tor
7. Luis Castillo, Sea
8. Framber Valdez, Hou
9. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD
10. Tyler Glasnow, LAD
11. Max Fried, Atl
12. Pablo Lopez, Min
13. Logan Webb, SF
14. Aaron Nola, Phi
15. Freddy Peralta, Mil
16. Tarik Skubal, Det
17. Logan Gilbert, Sea
18. Bobby Miller, LAD
19. Tanner Bibee, Cle
20. Eury Perez, Mia
21. Grayson Rodriguez, Bal
22. Dylan Cease,SD
23. Merrill Kelly, Ari
24. Zach Eflin, TB
25. Blake Snell, FA
26. Joe Ryan+Min
27. Sonny Gray+StL
28. Cole Ragans +KC
29. Joe Musgrove+SD
30. Justin Steele+ChC
31. Jesus Luzardo+ Mia
32. Michael King+SD
33. Chris Bassitt+Tor
34. Yu Darvish+SD
35. Shane Bieber, Cle
36. Jordan Montgomery, FA
37. Walker Buehler, LAD
38. Cristian Javier, Hou
39. Gavin Williams, Cle
40. Nathan Eovaldi, Tex
41. Ryan Pepiot, TB
42. Carlos Rodon, NYY
43. Bailey Ober, Min
44. Gerrit Cole, NYY
45. Brandon Pfaadt, Ari
46. Braxton Garrett, Mia
47. Mitch Keller, Pit
48. Bryce Miller, Sea
49. Justin Verlander+Hou
50. Hunter Greene+Cin
51. Kodai Senga, NYM
52. Shota Imanaga, ChC
53. Brandon Pfaadt, Ari
54. Aaron Civale, TB
55. Nick Pivetta, Bos
56. Marcus Stroman, NYY
57. Michael Wacha, KC
58. Jose Berrios, Tor
59. Kenta Maeda,Det
60. Kyle Bradish,Bal
61. John Means, Bal
62. Andrew Abbott, Cin
63. Hunter Brown, Hou
64. Chris Sale, Atl
65. Eduardo Rodiguez, Ari
66. Bryan Woo, Sea
67. Charlie Morton, Atl
68. Clarke Schmidt, NYY
69. Louie Varland, Min
70. Cristopher Sanchez, Phi
71. Nestor Cortes, NYY
72. Brayan Bello, Bos
73. Taijuan Walker, Phi
74. Jameson Taillon, ChC
75. Taj Bradley, TB
76. Jacob deGrom, Tex
77. Griffin Canning, LAA
78. Tyler Wells, Bal
79. Triston McKenzie, Cle
80. Miles Mikolas, Stl
81. Lance Lynn, Stl
82. Jon Gray, Tex
83. Logan Allen, Cle
84. Edward Cabrera, Mia
85. Kyle Gibson, Stl
86. Reese Olson, Det
87. Seth Lugo, KC
88. MacKenzie Gore, Was
89. Kutter Crawford, Bos
90. Javier Assad, ChC
91. Tyler Anderson, LAA
92. Martin Perez, Pit
93. Bryce Elder, Atl
94. Yusei Kikuchi, Tor
95. A.J. Puk, Mia
96. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
97. Hyun Jin Ryu, FA
98. Sean Manaea, NYM
99. Sawyer Gipson-Long, Det
100. J.P. France, Hou
101. Steven Matz, Stl
102. Ranger Suarez, Phi
103. JP Sears, Oak
104. Andrew Heaney, Tex
105. Shane Baz,TB
106. Zack Littell,TB
107. Dean Kremer, Bal
108. Jose Quintana, NYM
109. Patrick Sandoval, LAA
110. Garrett Whitlock, Bos
111. Drew Smyly, ChC
112. Max Scherzer, Tex
113. Matt Strahm, Phi
114. Ken Waldichuk, Oak
115. Reid Detmers, LAA
116. Keaton Winn, SF
117. Emmet Sheehan, LAD
118. Roansy Contreras, Pit
119. Nick Lodolo, Cin
120. Ryan Yarbrough, LAD
121. Adrian Houser, NYM
122. Anthony DeSclafani, Min
123. Frankie Montas, Cin
124. Jose Urquidy, Hou
125. Reynaldo Lopez, Atl
Team name of the week
A Hung Drury
