As more states reopen their economies — and more Covid-19 outbreaks pop up in states doing so — there's been debate over whether a "second wave" of infections is coming in the fall, as happened in the 1918 flu pandemic.
Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director for the Center of Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, now says the wave model doesn't seem to apply to this disease — because that would imply it'd take a breather at some point.
"I’m not sure the influenza analogy applies anymore,” Osterholm said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press. “I don’t think we’re going to see one, two and three waves — I think we’re just going to see one very very difficult forest fire of cases.”
(You can see the full video below or read the transcript here.)
Earlier this year, Osterholm and other researchers had proposed several possible courses for the Covid-19 pandemic to take — perhaps a series of successively smaller waves of outbreaks, or a spring wave that was then followed by a larger one in the fall, as was the case in 1918.
But they also considered the possibility that there would be no true wave pattern, and that the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 would continue to flare. "Whichever scenario the pandemic follows (assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures), we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity," they wrote.
Osterholm's comments came the day after President Donald Trump again said the virus was "fading away" — though cases are rising in 18 states, and a dozen states recorded single-day case records this week. Trump, speaking at a rally on Saturday, said he'd told officials to reduce testing for the virus to reduce the number of cases discovered; The New York Times reports on those comments, which got pushback from Osterholm and other health officials. A U.S. trade official said the president had been kidding.
In Minnesota, the state Health Department reported eight additional deaths, bringing the state's total to 1,380, but the state continued to record declines in new deaths and diagnosed cases, though testing has increased here. The Star Tribune has details on the latest tallies.
