Austria polls point to second chance for Kurz after far-right setback

As Austrians head to the polls this weekend, even Sebastian Kurz’s political rivals know that the man ousted as chancellor four months ago is almost certain to return as the country’s leader.

“We all know who the next chancellor will be,” announced the head of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), Norbert Hofer, in a recent advert on Facebook. “But what sort of chancellor should it be?”

The lack of doubt over Mr Kurz’s re-election shows how he has seized the centre of Austrian politics since he became the EU’s youngest national leader at the age of 31. Polls have consistently shown his mainstream conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) attracting around 35 per cent of the vote.

But much is also up for grabs about Austria’s political direction. With virtually no chance of an outright majority, Mr Kurz will have to decide which rivals to bring into a coalition — significantly shaping policy and his own legacy.

“His base is still with him, but it’s crucial which direction [he] goes in. He does not have a clean choice to make,” said Thomas Hofer, a prominent Austrian political analyst.

Mr Kurz, still just 33, built his political reputation on being a candidate of change. In his first campaign for the chancellorship, he took the ÖVP sharply to the right, striking a hawkish tone on migration at the height of the European refugee crisis. When he won, he partnered with the FPÖ — a decision drawing praise from those who saw it as a bold move to co-opt and neutralise the populist right, and opprobrium from those who believed Mr Kurz to be pandering to it.

For many mainstream conservative voters, Mr Kurz’s alliance was above all a welcome break from Austria’ centrist, consensus politics and an opportunity to enact real conservative policies.

Just 18 months into the project, however, the so-called Ibiza Affair detonated, calling Mr Kurz’s judgment into question. The leader of the FPÖ, then vice-chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache, was filmed soliciting covert political support from Russia; his resignation led to Mr Kurz’s ousting following a bruising no-confidence vote in parliament.

Mr Kurz emerged relatively untarnished from the scandal — which rivals put down to the ÖVP leader’s political fluidity.

“First of all he wants to stay in power. Secondly he’s a PR genius. And thirdly, he wants to try and keep everything in balance and to try and find out where the majority is and to follow that,” said Helmut Brandstätter, former editor of the liberal Der Kurier newspaper and now a candidate for the economically liberal Neos party.

According to Mr Brandstätter, Mr Kurz has managed to convince many Austrians they are voting for a new direction, while actually, very little risky reform — and economic and social turbulence — is on the agenda.

“Still nobody really knows who Sebastian Kurz is or what he stands for,” echoes Hannes Swoboda, a veteran of the Austrian Social Democratic party and former MEP.

Following the collapse of his government, Mr Kurz enjoyed a boost in the polls as voters backed him in sympathy for a crisis not of his own making. However, that momentum has fizzled out. Though he still enjoys strong approval ratings within his party — and though his image has been omnipresent in the campaign — the narrative of a dynamic “wunderwuzzi”, as Austrians term their child prodigies, is beginning to wear thin.

“He is better than the other candidates to be chancellor, but Turquoise-Blue [ÖVP-FPÖ] again would be a problem now,” said Stefanie, a young mother picking her children up from school in Vienna’s seventh district on a weekday afternoon.

Whilst not a natural ÖVP voter, she saw Mr Kurz as a reasonable voice who was trying to take a sensible path. But now, she said: “I don’t think he can control the FPÖ. He doesn’t have enough experience.”

A biography released last week was widely derided in the Austrian press for its excessive praise of his talents. One sardonic grafitto has been scrawled across campaign posters around Vienna: “Jesus”. It recalls an ill-timed moment in June, shortly after the fall of his government, when Mr Kurz appeared at a huge religious rally in Vienna’s Stadthalle, and accepted the invocation of an Australian evangelist for the thousands present to “pray for Sebastian”. 

Mr Kurz has conducted a careful campaign, trying to avoid hard positions. Even the issue of migration, which played such a key role in his 2017 election, has taken a back seat.

In negotiating a coalition, however, Mr Kurz will need to commit to hard policies. Even insiders from his tightly-knit circle of young advisers say everything is open for discussion. 

An alliance with the Social Democratic party is seen as the least likely deal. Mr Kurz’s platform has been built around the idea of breaking with the often moribund grand coalitions that dominated postwar Austria.

That leaves the potential of a fresh deal with the FPÖ, or a three-way agreement with the Green party and the economically liberal Neos: a dirndl coalition, as it would be known, for being as colourful as the traditional Austrian dress. 

With the FPÖ, Mr Kurz could continue with the same strategic plan and narrative of being tough on immigration but dedicated to fair reform. But it would be hard for him to walk away untarnished from any future scandals.

A three-way coalition with the Greens and Neos would involve far more compromise on policy, and a weakening of the chancellor’s ability to dominate the government. But Mr Kurz might have an opportunity to salvage his reputation in Europe — damaged by what many see as the failure of his once-lauded plan to accommodate the populist right.

If Mr Kurz has demonstrated anything so far, it has been his ability to read the national mood and put himself at its political centre.

“Whatever he does, he needs the next government to last,” said Thomas Hofer. “He has to have a five-year government.”