Europe’s far-right seeks return to power in Austria vote

“Fair. Social. Loyal to the homeland,” proclaimed banners in the Austrian city of Graz at the weekend as 1,000 delegates of the far-right Freedom party (FPÖ) — some clad in traditional dirndls and lederhosen — voted overwhelmingly to endorse Norbert Hofer as their new leader.

“We’re back!” declared Mr Hofer, promising delegates that the party would in time become the largest party in Austria.

Five months after a spectacular corruption scandal that cost the FPÖ its then leader, Heinz-Christian Strache, and ended its 18 months in government, the party is once more on the verge of power — a prime example of the way anti-immigration nationalists have become established forces within European politics.

Despite the “Ibiza Affair” — in which Mr Strache was caught in a sting operation on the Balearic island soliciting covert political support from Russia — polls show that one in five Austrians intends to support the party in an election on September 29.

It would make the FPÖ, one of Europe’s oldest far-right movements, the likeliest choice to govern as a junior coalition partner with the moderate conservative Austrian People’s party (ÖVP) of former chancellor Sebastian Kurz. He is expected to return to the chancellery with 35 per cent of the vote.

“The Ibiza thing made people think the FPÖ is toast, but they have an amazing capacity for coming back from the dead,” said Heather Grabbe, director of the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels. “Nobody in Brussels is really paying attention to the situation in Austria. But really very often it is the canary in the coal mine. The FPÖ is a harbinger. They tend to come up with the narrative and the style of communication that other populist parties [in Europe] come up with later.”

The stability of the FPÖ’s vote has taken some by surprise. While previous scandals and setbacks pushed its support into steep retreat, experts say this time the party’s messaging seems to have taken root in many Austrian communities.

“They have really shown that they have solidified their base,” said Thomas Hofer, a political consultant. “They’ve been able to do that, even after the scandal, because they are really the first party in Austria to have built up direct channels of communication with their voters, especially through social media. Their messaging is very effective.”

Even in adversity, Mr Hofer noted, the FPÖ cannily responded in a way that reinforced its core anti-establishment narrative.

“They are against him because he is for you,” the party declared across social media as Mr Strache was thrown out of government.

Crucial too, has been the FPÖ’s ability to make a smooth leadership transition while keeping to its strategy. Its campaign infrastructure is far more developed than ever, says Mr Hofer, which has stopped it from reflexively retrenching towards hardline positions when under threat.

New leader Mr Hofer is, in the Austrian expression, someone who “eats chalk”: he has a soft voice to deliver harsh messages.

His soft-spoken manners make him appealing, in particular, to moderate conservative voters, ordinarily supportive of Mr Kurz’s ÖVP, who decry Austrian politics’ long-history of centrist coalitions but are wary of the Freedom party’s less savoury elements.

FPÖ adverts refer to Mr Hofer as “our Norbert”. In Graz the softly-softly approach took a physical form: outside the conference hall, a giant blue fluffy bear — “the Norbear” — was handing out party literature.

The party’s policy platform for the upcoming election treads familiar ground. Commitments to stop “mass migration” remain the centrepiece of its manifesto, bolstered by specific dog-whistle topics such as “animal welfare” — shorthand for hostility towards Halal food.

The party’s anti-establishment bent is also front-and-centre of campaigning, with pledges to reform Austria’s state broadcaster, ORF, and to break open the clientism of Austria’s centralised political system by legislating for regular national referendums.

But also prominent are socio-economic policies to appeal to the less well-off: pledges for more generous pension protection, cheaper transport provision and tenancy reform.

The FPÖ’s most recent campaigning has sought to directly appeal to wavering conservative voters’ pragmatic instincts.

A TV campaign advert this month depicts Mr Hofer and an actor playing Mr Kurz as a couple seeing a relationship councillor, finishing each others’ sentences and bickering. All good relationships have their problems, it concludes, and some things are too good to throw away. The message: vote for the FPÖ to keep the couple together and stop Mr Kurz from straying into a coalition with the left.

“Sebastian Kurz without the Freedom party is like Popeye without spinach,” quipped Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ’s campaign mastermind, last week, underscoring the message.

One risk for the party, however, is that a return to government might undermine its agenda rather than shore it up.

“The Freedom party has grown as a party of opposition. But as a party of government, it will be harder to stick to its favourite messages,” said Anton Pelinka, a political scientist and former professor of nationalism at the Central European University. “Populism means promising everything to everyone. In government you can’t do that.”

Each time the FPÖ has entered government, or come close, the moderate electoral messaging it has pursued has exacerbated faultlines in its own ranks, as was the case in 2002, when hardliners overthrew the party’s leadership.

“It is more stable than it used to be, but do not forget the party has a history of splitting,” said Mr Pelinka. “The party is full of contradictions.”