In one of the nastier races, John James and Sen. Gary Peters offer different styles

If Republican businessman John James overcomes the odds and beats U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., on Nov. 3, he’ll make history after one of the more negative campaigns for statewide office in recent memory.

For months, James and his allies have been taking potshots at Peters, running less on James’ own agenda than on blanketing the airwaves with attacks calling the first-term incumbent ineffective, despite every indication that, quietly, Peters has been one of the more productive and bipartisan senators in a Senate riven by partisanship. Peters’ allies, meanwhile, have been firing back with their own claims about James, including some about his business dealings with China and his commitment to protecting coverage for preexisting conditions, which have been misleading as well.

“They’re kicking the living hell out of each other with negative ads,” said Bernie Porn, pollster for EPIC-MRA of Lansing, who said there is an outside chance James could upset Peters if trends that have seen the incumbent’s lead in the polls shrink don’t change.

Running on a ticket with an unpopular president, James — a former Army helicopter pilot who now runs his family’s warehousing and logistics business in Detroit and once said he was in “2,000% support” of the Trump agenda — has done far better than one might expect. He has out-fundraised Peters by some $3 million since the beginning of last year and in the latest EPIC-MRA poll done for the Free Press, Peters led James 45%-41%, a 4-point difference that was equal to the poll’s potential margin of error.

That poll showed 9% undecided and 5% backing a third party candidate when there isn’t a visible one in the race, suggesting Peters could still be in good shape if these voters migrate toward the incumbent. If they start to move toward James, however, Democrats would be in trouble.

“He’s proven to be a strong candidate,” David Dulio, a political science professor and director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University, said of James. “I think he’s a fresh face. He’s new and he’s got a compelling story. I don’t think it's any more complicated than that.”

One thing James has going for him is that, nearing the end of his six-year term, Peters is still less known, even among Michiganders, than you'd expect for a sitting senator. On the other hand, James has been dogged by criticism that he has avoided taking public stances on significant issues — from lawsuits that would upend health care protections to seating a new U.S. Supreme Court justice before the election — and that his protestations of being independent of President Donald Trump ring hollow when he refuses to criticize him and campaigns with him.

But it's clear he's generating buzz. "Because he seems to be making a more credible challenge to Peters than he did to (U.S. Sen. Debbie) Stabenow (in 2018), I think there's a lot of excitement in the party for him as a candidate," said Peter Wielhouwer, director of the Institute of Government and Politics at Western Michigan University.

There’s evidence of politicians — especially white, male politicians with long resumes or ties to the establishment — running into trouble in recent years. Two years ago, Democratic women in Michigan upended men for governor and attorney general and flipped a congressional seat that had been held by a Republican with a long legislative career, U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop. Only James, an African American making his first run, did better than expected, losing to Stabenow, who was running for her fourth term, by about 6 points but otherwise running ahead of others in his party.

It made him a frequent Democratic critic on Fox News and led to Trump even going as far as suggesting he might nominate him for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, despite James having no diplomatic experience. When the time came to convince him to run again, it was for the Senate, against Peters, who, while a first-term senator, has had a government career in Washington and Lansing stretching back decades.

Peters is also a more traditional politician who carries himself like a college professor — albeit one who rides a motorcycle and occasionally sports a salt-and-pepper beard — who is more likely to be heard describing the intricate details of policy in a committee hearing than engaging in political bombast.

James, a West Point graduate, has developed his range as a motivational speaker in his second run for office and can maneuver between a fiery stump speech, a sarcastic retort or a strongly worded denunciation of his opponent. But to win — and if he did so he’d become the first Black U.S. senator in Michigan’s history — he will have to overcome another kind of history.

No Republican U.S. Senate nominee has won in a presidential year in the state since 1972, when incumbent Sen. Bob Griffin won as President Richard Nixon led the ticket. The only other Republican elected to the Senate in any year since was Spencer Abraham, who won in the GOP wave of ’94 — a nonpresidential year — and was voted out six years later.

“It’s a long time,” Dulio said.

Less than six weeks out from the election, no one expects there to be a Republican wave in 2020. If anything, Democrats are expected to pick up seats in the Senate this year, but outside of former college football coach Tommy Tuberville’s run against U.S. Sen. Doug Jones, D-Alabama, James is seen as perhaps the best, if not only, chance for a Republican nominee to take a seat currently held by a Democratic senator.