Gold rises, USD falls ahead of US GDP, inflation rate

Data current as of 3/25/2024

Key points

• Gold prices bounce back to $2,200: (1:10)
• US dollar reverses from recent strength: (2:30)
• US dollar correlated to US data: (3:13)
• US Q4 GDP expected 3.2%: (5:16)
• US inflation rate expected 2.8%: (6:58)

Gold prices bounce back to $2,200

Last week, gold futures hit all-time highs at $2,200 before pulling back. This decline was short lived as the precious metal has quickly rebounded back to the $2,200 mark this week. This resilience underscores gold's enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset, especially during times of global economic uncertainty and fluctuating market conditions.

US dollar reverses from recent strength

The US dollar, which had been showing considerable strength, saw a reversal as the GBP/USD pair recovered to 1.2650 after a nearly 200 pip decline last week. This reversion comes after both country's central banks met last week, and markets determined that the weaker message came from the Bank of England.

US dollar correlated to US data

The relative performance of the US against other economies like the UK, EU, and Australia plays a significant role in forex price action, particularly due to its correlation with domestic data releases. Movements in the US dollar often mirror the country's economic performance, highlighting the importance for traders to stay informed on key data such as GDP growth rates and inflation indicators. This knowledge can aid in predicting future trends and making strategic trading decisions.

US Q4 GDP expected 3.2%

The US GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter (arriving Thursday) is anticipated to be 3.2%, a projection that surpasses initial expectations of 2% and follows a trend of higher-than-expected performance, with Q3 data showing a robust 4.9% growth. This strong economic performance indicates resilience in the US economy, potentially influencing the direction of the US dollar and impacting forex markets.

US inflation rate expected 2.8%

The US Core PCE Price Index, a key measure of inflation, remains steady with an expectation to continue at 2.8%, consistent with the last reading. An inflation rate persisting around 2.8% could have implications for monetary policy and interest rate decisions, affecting the value of the US dollar and its relative strength in the forex market. Understanding the interplay between inflation rates and currency valuation is crucial for forex traders navigating the complexities of international finance.

Learn more about forex correlations to gold

How to trade US dollar

1. Open an account to get started, or practice on a demo account
2. Choose your forex trading platform
3. Open, monitor, and close positions on USD pairs

Trading forex requires an account with a forex broker like IG. Many traders watch major forex pairs like GBP/USD and USD/JPY for potential opportunities based on economic events such as inflation releases or interest rate decisions. Economic events can produce more volatility for forex pairs, which can mean greater potential profits and losses as risks can increase at these times.

You can help develop your forex trading strategies using resources like IG’s YouTube channel. Our curated playlists can help you stay up to date on current markets and understanding key terms. Once your strategy is developed, you can follow the above steps to opening an account and getting started trading forex.

Your profit or loss is calculated according to your full position size. Leverage will magnify both your profits and losses. It’s important to manage your risks carefully as losses can exceed your deposit. Ensure you understand the risks and benefits associated with trading leveraged products before you start trading with them. Trade using money you’re comfortable losing.