Analyzing of Turkey Trade Datas

This article considers two questions about economic status of Turkey by using GDP, GNI, Import and Export datas

Before begin to analyze the economic datas of Turkey, let me explain you what I was trying to find answers during this research;

GDP(Gross Domestic Products) measures the value of goods and services produced by a nation (citizen or non-citizen doesn't matter) within the country's borders. You can use this parameter for comparing which country is more developed than others.

Import data correspond to consumption and purchasing foreign goods and services of a country's residents whereas Export data  are the goods and services produced in one country and purchased by residents of another country.

Question1: Is there any relationship between GDP and Import values?

Answer1:

The data I visualized above shows us that the last 10 years are like a bell curve and Turkey had a great growth and maximum historical value in 2013 (950.58b US$). And after this year it shows us that it started to decrease almost per year. In 2019, it came to 750 billion US$ by descending. When we compare this value with 2010's data (ten years ago), we can say that Turkey's economy fell down to an even lower position which is 10 years ago. In addition, we can obviously see that the differences between the import and export values have greatly increased while GDP has maximum value between 2010 and 2015.

Normally, the purchase of imported goods and services have no direct impact on GDP. But here, while GDP has maximum value in 2013, the import value has maximum value, too. And while GDP has minimum value in 2009 within the last 10 years, the import numbers also have minimum value in that year. In short, when the import increased, GDP also increased interestingly. This might be because most domestic goods in Turkey have been made by foreign components which are imported from another country. Perhaps, while we are trying to focus on producing something, we forget to use domestic components on our production. And then we continue to use imported components again.. So that we can answer this question as the import value can affect GDP indirectly and interestingly based on Turkey's datas.

Besides, the mini graph represents the difference between Import and Export (import minus export). And based on it, the gap between them are decreasing year by year.

Question2: What can happen if the foreign investors withdraw their investments from the country?

Answer2:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced by a nation (citizen or non-citizen don't matter) within a country's borders as mentioned on the first question whereas Gross National Income (GNI) is the total amount of money earned by a nation's people and businesses. It is used to measure and track a nation's wealth from year to year.

GDP = Consumption + Investments + Government Spends + (Export - Import)

GNI = GDP + (Country Citizens who help to production - Foreign Citizens who help to production)

Turkey' GNI is lower than GDP almost each year. This indicates Turkey is seeing a net overall outflow from the country. Citizens and businesses of Turkey operating overseas are generating lesser income compared to the income generated by the foreign citizens and businesses operating in these countries. And when GNI is higher than GDP, it means Turkey citizens are producing and contributing more through their overseas operations.

In short, based on the mini graph above (which represents us GDP minus GNI), GNI value is getting higher than GDP year by year. This increase will cause bigger foreign dependency soon.

Thank you to Christopher Brooks from University of Michigan for encouraging me to Data Science field.

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The views provided here are my views and are based on my own journey to data science.

I have released the source codes and datas in my github address. (github: erolerdogan)

Thanks for reading, stay safe.

Tags: #datavisualization #datamanipulation #python #pandas #matplotlib

References

1. GDP of Turkey => https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=TR
2. GNI of Turkey => https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.MKTP.CD?end=2018&locations=TR&start=1960&view=chart
3. Import and Export of Turkey => https://comtrade.un.org/data (You need to select related area to download the datasets)
4. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030415/what-functional-difference-between-gdp-and-gnp.asp