A Look Into The Future
There Is Good News In The New Year
As we stand on the precipice of a new year, the echoes of economic predictions resound more loudly than ever. One voice that has cut through the noise with a stark forecast is that of renowned economist Harry Dent, who predicts a seismic market crash in 2024, dubbed the "Crash of a Lifetime." In a recent article featured on ThinkAdvisor, Dent lays out his vision of the impending economic landscape, detailing the potential triggers and implications of such an event.
This piece is a deep dive into Dent's predictions, examining the factors at play and how they might affect investors and the economy at large. As we delve into the insights and analyses provided, let's brace ourselves to explore the contours of a potentially transformative year ahead in the investment markets, and in our country during the Presidential election cycle.
People think I’m crazy when I say the stock market will go down 86% on the S&P — the worst case but also my most likely case,” Harry Dent Jr., the candid, controversial strategist, argues in an interview with ThinkAdvisor.
“People say, ‘Harry, the Fed won’t let that happen,’” says Dent. “Well, in the end, when there’s a battle between God and central bankers, I’m going to bet on God!”
Mr. Dent correctly predicted Japan’s 1989 bubble burst and recession, the dotcom crash and the populist surge that thrust Donald Trump into the presidency.
In the interview, the strategist — whose independent research firm, HSD Publishing, produces monthly newsletters that Dent and partner Rodney Johnson each write — predicts big crashes in both the stock market and real estate, which will set off a deep recession.
Speaking from his stronghold in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Dent recently stated over the phone, "We need a recession to throw out the bad stuff so we can go into the next boom lean and mean."
“We need a recession. This is the longest we’ve ever gone without a recession or a major stock market correction or crash to clear the decks and throw out the bad stuff so we can go into the next boom lean and mean”.
“This is a war of central banks against free markets. In the end, the free markets are going to win because they’re the closest thing to God when it comes to money; and the central banks are a bunch of academic people who never ran a business”.
Dive into this insightful article, where Mr. Dent discusses the potential "Crash of a Lifetime" looming in 2024. His detailed analysis and bold predictions provide a thought-provoking perspective on the future of the economy and investment markets.
The Fed’s Empire of Speculation
An article by Charles Hugh Smith discusses the pervasive influence of the Federal Reserve's policies on creating and sustaining a speculative market. The Fed has normalized speculative excess to the extent that it's no longer recognized as extreme but simply the way markets function. This empire of speculation is maintained through constant injections of liquidity into the market, especially targeting top-tier players whenever the equity market falters. Despite the Fed's declared focus on promoting a stable economy, the reality is that its actions are deeply intertwined with and primarily aimed at inflating equity markets.
Smith argues that the speculative gains boosted by the Fed's interventions do not represent real growth.
Instead, they are a form of profiteering through various means such as corporate maneuvers and financial engineering, which do not contribute to actual productivity or wages in the real economy.
The result of these dynamics is a pronounced concentration of wealth among the already-rich and a push for everyone to partake in the speculative casino as a means to progress, mirroring the speculative fever of 1929. The author points out that this path of unproductive speculation and wealth concentration is unsustainable and is bound to face limits, notably inflation, which can't be managed indefinitely by Fed policies.
Smith concludes by drawing parallels between the current speculative environment and historical precedents like the 1929 stock market crash and the 1970s inflation crisis. He warns that the current trajectory of Fed policy, driven by the belief in its omnipotence and the normalization of speculative excesses, is heading towards a collapse.
The speculative mania, driven by the Fed's constant intervention and the society-wide embrace of speculation over productivity, is bound to unravel, leading to severe economic consequences. The article serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of over-reliance on central bank policies and speculative markets, urging a reevaluation of our economic priorities and methods.
About That Good News . . .
After a period of economic contraction and correction in investment markets, opportunity often arises from the recalibration of values and priorities. As prices adjust to more realistic levels, assets become more affordably priced, allowing investors to acquire valuable investments at lower costs. Businesses restructure and innovate to adapt to the new economic environment, leading to the emergence of new industries and revitalization of existing ones. Consumers adjust their spending, leading to shifts in demand that can open new markets or expand existing ones.
Overall, the period of correction can serve as a reset, clearing away unsustainable practices and excesses, and laying the groundwork for sustainable growth and new opportunities for investors and entrepreneurs alike. This cycle of contraction and subsequent opportunity is a natural and recurring aspect of market economies, driving innovation, efficiency, and ultimately, recovery.