A report in the New England Journal of Medicine is predicting that by 2030 nearly 1 in 2 adults in the country will have obesity.
The report, funded by the New York-based JPB Foundation and based on 20 years of data from more than 6 million adults, also says this prevalence will be higher than 50 percent in 29 states and not below 35 percent in any state.
It says its projections are similar to previous estimates showing that 57 percent of children 2 to 19 years of age in 2016 are projected to have obesity by the age of 35.
It projects that nearly 1 in 4 adults will have severe obesity by 2030, and that this will be higher than 25 percent in 25 states.
Rates for Massachusetts for obesity by 2030 are projected at 42 percent and at 20 percent for severe obesity.
Authors of the report on projected state-level prevalence of adult obesity and severity are from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health as well as George Washington’s Milken Institute School of Public Health in D.C.
Their projections were based in part on adjusted figures from an annual telephone survey during the years 1993 and 1994 and 1999 through 2016 of more than 400,000 adults in all 50 states as well as the District of Columbia that provides information on body-mass index as well as National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.
Body Mass Index categories were defined according to guidelines for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Besides projecting levels of obesity by state, researchers also tracked by other factors including by income.
The report projects by 2030 severe obesity will be the most common BMI category in the country among women, black non-Hispanic adults and low-income adults, that is, according to the report, household income of less than $50,000.
It also projects that severe obesity will be the most common BMI category in 44 states among adults with an annual household income of less than $20,000.
It called its projections on severe obesity “especially worrisome” as this is “associated with even higher mortality and morbidity and health care costs.”
It called for more cost effective preventative interventions for “achieving and maintaining meaningful weight loss.”