MVP catcher Joe Mauer is looking like a Hall of Fame lock

Joe Mauer’s greatness was truncated, his optimal outcome as a ballplayer very much unrealized. His end was not tragic – not due to an insidious disease or transportation catastrophe – but instead unfortunate, leaving behind only partially unanswered questions rather than what-ifs.

Concussions drove Mauer from baseball, first taking him away from home plate and ending his catching career in 2013, and then nudging him into retirement altogether in 2018. Oh, Mauer very much fulfilled the golden boy status that accompanied him into pro ball: The No. 1 pick of the hometown Minnesota Twins in 2001, signed away from the opportunity to play quarterback for Florida State to instead become the face of his beloved team.

Missions accomplished: Mauer won an MVP award, earned six All-Star Game selections and captured three batting titles while leading the Twins to four playoff berths.

Yet the Twins could never escape the divisional series – nor their constant tormentors, the New York Yankees – and Mauer’s extensive accomplishments left a feeling of unfinished business, even after 15 seasons.

Still, even if he said goodbye to the game at 35, there’s an excellent case for Mauer to earn election to baseball’s Hall of Fame.

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 The case for Joe Mauer

Regardless of position, Mauer was one of the best pure hitters and finest on-base artists of his era. He gave a preview of coming attractions in his first full season, posting a .294/.372/.411 line, setting the stage for leading the majors in hitting the next season. That .347 average in 2006 included 181 hits in just 140 games; his .429 on-base percentage and .936 OPS produced a 144 adjusted OPS, a harbinger that Mauer was headed toward elite hitter status in a PED testing era that was just two years old.

Mauer reached his apex at 26 years old in 2009, again leading the majors with a .365 average and .444 OBP and this time crushing 28 home runs to lead the AL in slugging (.587), OPS (1.031) and adjusted OPS (171). And in perhaps his greatest feat, Mauer overcame whatever biases might exist against a catcher from a team in the upper Midwest to outpoint the Yankees’ Mark Teixeira and win his only MVP award.

There are 19 catchers in the Hall of Fame, and Mauer’s offensive metrics stack up very favorably against those inducted in the past 40 years.

Mauer’s .827 career OPS and 124 adjusted OPS hardly takes a back seat to Johnny Bench’s .817 and 126 marks. Same with Pudge Rodriguez, who finished with a .798 OPS and 106 mark, and, like Mauer, one MVP award. Gary Carter checks in at .773/115.

While Wins Against Replacement remains perhaps most imperfect in evaluating catchers, it’s both an indictment of Mauer’s somewhat shortened career but also his all-around excellence. While Mike Piazza’s offensive prowess (427 home runs, .922 OPS, 143 adjusted) dwarf Mauer’s, his 59.5 career WAR isn’t far ahead of Mauer’s 55.2. Yogi Berra also had 59.5 WAR – though 10 World Series titles and three MVPs buff out his legacy nicely.

Bench (75.1), Carter (70.1) and Pudges Rodriguez (68.7) and Carlton Fisk (68.4) all enjoy significant career WAR advantages over Mauer, but Carter and Fisk did not win an MVP award.

In short, there are plenty of avenues to make Mauer’s case for Cooperstown.

The case against

Everyone loves the longball, right? By that measure, Mauer’s relatively paltry 124 home runs are easily dwarfed by his predecessors. Bench won a pair of MVPs on his way to slugging 389 home runs. Fisk lasted 24 seasons and hit 376 home runs. Rodriguez hit 311 home runs and even stole 127 bases.

Dreams of accruing such gaudy counting stats as a catcher ended in August 2013 when Mauer took a foul tip off the mask, landed on the seven-day concussion list – and missed the rest of that season.

When he returned in 2014, it was as a first baseman, and though he was just 31, his offensive production diminished. Though Mauer maintained a .359 OBP over his last five seasons, he was barely a league average hitter and with a high of 11 home runs in that stretch.

The risk of a major concussion forced Mauer to stop catching; after he suffered a concussion diving for a ball in 2018, it marked the end of his career.

Realistic outlook

Mauer will be a Hall of Famer – perhaps first ballot, likely within his first five years of eligibility. He’s received 83% of publicly revealed votes on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, which projects him to land right on the 75% line needed for induction when all ballots are tallied.

Mauer’s case will age well, particularly as his offensive output and WAR accrual is weighed against Yadier Molina, a likely Hall of Fame catcher who will be eligible four years from now.

Yet perhaps the best metric isn’t a catcher but rather another Twin Cities legend – Kirby Puckett, the great outfielder whose career ended at 35 due to an eye condition. Puckett did not have the counting stats an MVP-less outfielder might lean on – just 2,304 hits and 207 homers – but earned election on the first ballot, perhaps in part due to forces beyond his control.

Mauer did even more – and should receive similar due.