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Arnaud Z. Dragicevic - RILK - Bienvenue sur RILK - La société

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THÈSE<br />

Pour l‟obtention du grade de<br />

Docteur de l‟École Polytechnique<br />

Spécialité : Sciences économiques<br />

Présentée et soutenue publiquement par<br />

<strong>Arnaud</strong> Z. <strong>Dragicevic</strong><br />

Le 4 Décembre 2009<br />

MARKET MECHANISMS AND VALUATION<br />

OF ENVIRONMENTAL PUBLIC GOODS<br />

MÉCANISMES DE MARCHÉ ET ÉVALUATION<br />

DES BIENS PUBLICS ENVIRONNEMENTAUX<br />

Directeur de thèse : Bernard Sinclair–Desgagné<br />

Membres du jury<br />

Pr. Bureau, D., École Polytechnique et Conseil économique pour le développement durable (président)<br />

Pr. Shogren, J., Université du Wyoming et Académie royale des sciences de Suède (rapporteur)<br />

Pr. Sinclair-Desgagné, B., École Polytechnique, HEC Montréal et CIRANO (directeur)<br />

Pr. Willinger, M., Université de Montpellier 1, Institut universitaire de France et LAMETA (rapporteur)


L'École Polytechnique n’entend donner aucune approbation,<br />

ni improbation, aux opinions émises dans les thèses.<br />

Ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres à leur auteur.


Pour ma mère.


Remerciements<br />

Tout d‟abord, j‟aimerais remercier mon directeur de thèse, le Pr. Bernard<br />

Sinclair-Desgagné, pour la confiance qu‟il m‟a accordée et le goût de<br />

l‟exploration qu‟il m‟a transmis ; je le remercie ensuite pour son honnêteté<br />

intellectuelle et son grand enthousiasme communicatif ; pour m‟avoir apporté de<br />

précieux conseils et pour m‟avoir orienté sans obstruer ma liberté de penser, enfin.<br />

Ses méthodes de travail ont été une véritable inspiration pour moi. Sans lui, je<br />

n‟en serai pas là. Je lui suis très reconnaissant.<br />

Je sais également gré au Pr. Bertrand Munier pour avoir su animer la fibre<br />

de chercheur en moi, sans qui la notion de recherche aurait aujourd‟hui un tout<br />

autre visage. Mes pensées vont également à l‟ancienne équipe du GRID pour leurs<br />

débats animés et leurs appuis qui m‟ont donné l‟énergie nécessaire pour ce projet<br />

de thèse : Mohammed Abdellaoui, Marie-<strong>La</strong>ure Cabon-Dhersin, Nicolas Drouhin,<br />

Nathalie Etchart-Vincent et Marc <strong>La</strong>ssagne. Le soutien et la compréhension du Pr.<br />

Gérard Coffignal ont été d‟une importance primordiale. Un grand merci à mes<br />

complices doctoraux Aurélien Baillon, Thierno Diaw, <strong>La</strong>ëtitia Placido et Céline<br />

Tea pour leurs remarques, leur soutènement et leur gaîté.<br />

Je tiens à remercier l‟École Polytechnique ParisTech pour son accueil et la<br />

stimulation intellectuelle de tous les jours. Mes remerciements vont d‟abord au Pr.<br />

Jean-Pierre Ponssard dont l‟intervention a été capitale. Merci au Pr. Michel Rosso<br />

pour m‟avoir autorisé à poursuivre et finir mes recherches au sein du département<br />

d‟économie. Par ailleurs, un très grand merci aux Prs. Francis Bloch et Jean-<br />

François <strong>La</strong>slier pour nos conversations et leurs suggestions toujours avisées qui<br />

ont contribué à l‟amélioration de ce travail. Je tiens également à remercier Marie-<br />

<strong>La</strong>ure Allain, Claire Chambolle, Nicolas Houy, Yukio Koriyama et Ingmar<br />

Schumacher pour leur écoute et leur aide. Les Prs. Pierre Cahuc, Patricia Crifo et<br />

Jérôme Renaud m‟ont aussi beaucoup apporté. Une petite pensée pour Éliane


Nitiga-Madelaine, Lyza Racon et Chantal Poujouly qui ont fait preuve d‟une<br />

grande générosité à mon égard. Merci à Christine <strong>La</strong>vaur pour son appui ferme à<br />

plusieurs occasions. En dernier lieu, j‟aimerais remercier les doctorants de l‟EDX<br />

pour leur accueil chaleureux, pour nos dialogues en tous lieux, toutes heures et<br />

tous états, pour leurs décryptages et leurs conseils, ainsi que pour leur amitié :<br />

Ozlem Bedre, Clémence Berson, Damien Bosc, Clémence Christin, Julien<br />

Hardelin, Sabine Lemoyne de Forges, Fabienne Llense, Guy Meunier, Thuriane<br />

Mahé, Matias Nunez, François Perrot, Claudia Saavedra, Nicolas Schutz, Idrissa<br />

Sibally et Xavier Venel. Ils ont ma gratitude. Certains ont été témoins de l‟unique<br />

fois où l‟esprit d‟Éric Cantona a bien voulu habiter mon corps, bien que je sois<br />

très doué pour mal jouer au football.<br />

De <strong>sur</strong>croît, mes remerciements s‟adressent aux membres du jury pour<br />

m‟avoir grandement honoré en acceptant d‟évaluer cette thèse et pour m‟avoir<br />

recommandé, à l‟occasion de la pré-soutenance, des éléments essentiels pour la<br />

suite de mon travail. Je leur en suis obligé. Également, je tiens à remercier David<br />

Ettinger dont la relecture en rapporteur improvisé a été précieuse.<br />

Pour nourrir des idées, il faut des financeurs. C‟est pourquoi je tiens à<br />

remercier l‟École des Arts et Métiers ParisTech ainsi que le Ministère de la<br />

Recherche à qui je dois l‟entier financement de cette thèse. Merci également à la<br />

Chaire Développement Durable EDF–École Polytechnique pour avoir cru en mon<br />

projet d‟expérience et pour l‟avoir financé.<br />

Un grand merci au Pr. Dominique Namur ainsi qu‟à l‟École Supérieure<br />

d‟Électricité, plus singulièrement Stéphane Font, non seulement pour avoir cru en<br />

moi mais aussi pour m‟avoir appris à enseigner. L‟expérience professorale que j‟ai<br />

acquise durant les quatre années leur est due.<br />

Pour nourrir des idées, il faut aussi de l‟art qui agit à brûle-pourpoint. C‟est<br />

pourquoi cette thèse n‟aurait pu se faire sans les tableaux de Jérôme Bosch, sans<br />

les compositions du groupe Radiohead, sans les longs-métrages de Gus Van Sant<br />

ni les romans de Martin Page.<br />

Permettez-moi de louanger sans réserves mon compagnon de fortune,<br />

l‟ordinateur portable, pour ne pas m‟avoir lâché en cours de route, pour avoir tenu


on jusqu‟à la dernière équation, et ce malgré son âge très avancé : il est déjà une<br />

antiquité. Cet exploit vaut bien la transgression du rationnel par l‟animiste.<br />

Enfin, des remerciements inconditionnels à mon père pour son soutien et<br />

ses encouragements dans les moments délicats. J‟espère le rendre fier aujourd‟hui.<br />

Cette plage de remerciements ne peut s‟achever sans une pensée<br />

particulière pour mes amis qui ont accepté d‟être les souffre-douleurs de ce<br />

doctorat. Leur présence, leur intelligence, leur assistance, leur financement de la<br />

recherche, leurs relectures, leurs critiques contestables comme fondées, leurs<br />

protestations, leurs contradictions, leurs sourires et leurs larmes sont les<br />

fondements de ce que je suis. Ils savent pour sûr que je leur dois tant, ce qui<br />

m‟évitera de languir dans la mièvrerie. Par ordre alphabétique, la ligue des héros<br />

ordinaires qui, chacun à sa manière, ont sauvé mon monde : Karim Amyuni, Julie<br />

Aubry, Romain Aubry, Benjamin Baeckeroot, Anne Boring, Nicolas Coutel, Jasna<br />

<strong>Dragicevic</strong>, Claire Floride, Sophie Guebsi, Frank Helerard, Olivier Jay, Sophie<br />

<strong>La</strong>bbé, Pierre-Antoine <strong>La</strong>loë, Pierre-Yves <strong>La</strong>nfrey, <strong>La</strong>ëtitia Lefouin, Séverine<br />

Michelot, <strong>La</strong>urie Monné-Dao, Mathieu Monnoir, Jacques Rotrou, Karine Rubiol,<br />

Vincent Ruer, Nicolas Simon, Carole Van Honacker et Sergio Visinoni.


Table des Matières<br />

Chapitre 0 ........................................................ 11<br />

Introduction Générale<br />

0.1. Le préambule .................................................................................................. 12<br />

0.2. L‟approche économique .................................................................................. 13<br />

0.3. Les méthodes d‟élicitation .............................................................................. 17<br />

0.4. Les enchères expérimentales ........................................................................... 18<br />

0.5. Le résumé de la thèse ...................................................................................... 20<br />

0.6. Les recommandations de politique publique .................................................. 23<br />

0.7. Références ....................................................................................................... 23<br />

Chapter 1 ......................................................... 27<br />

Imperfect Substitutability in Standard<br />

and Reference-Dependence Models<br />

1.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 28<br />

1.2. The standard model ......................................................................................... 29<br />

1.3. The substitution effect..................................................................................... 38<br />

1.4. Imperfect substitutability and the endowment effect ...................................... 40<br />

1.5. Imperfect substitutability and loss aversion .................................................... 44<br />

1.6. Imperfect substitutability and boundedness .................................................... 47<br />

1.7. Concluding remarks ........................................................................................ 51<br />

1.8. References ....................................................................................................... 52<br />

1.9. Appendix ......................................................................................................... 55


Chapter 2 ........................................................ 61<br />

Private Valuation of a Public Good<br />

in Three Auction Mechanisms<br />

2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 62<br />

2.2. The experimental design ................................................................................ 66<br />

2.3. The results ...................................................................................................... 69<br />

2.4. Discussion ...................................................................................................... 75<br />

2.5. Concluding remarks ....................................................................................... 78<br />

2.6. References ...................................................................................................... 79<br />

2.7. Appendix ........................................................................................................ 83<br />

Chapter 3 ........................................................ 89<br />

Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices<br />

and Reference Point Adaptation<br />

3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 90<br />

3.2. Auctions and incentive-compatibility ............................................................ 93<br />

3.3. Interactive incentive-compatibility ................................................................ 98<br />

3.4. The behavioral model ................................................................................... 103<br />

3.5. The empirical study ...................................................................................... 113<br />

3.6. Concluding remarks ..................................................................................... 121<br />

3.7. References .................................................................................................... 122<br />

3.8. Appendix ...................................................................................................... 127<br />

Chapter 4 ...................................................... 133<br />

Competitive Private Supply of Public Goods<br />

4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 134<br />

4.2. The public good game .................................................................................. 136<br />

4.3. The explicit logarithmic model .................................................................... 143<br />

4.4. Concluding remarks ..................................................................................... 153<br />

4.5. References .................................................................................................... 154<br />

4.6. Appendix ...................................................................................................... 156


Table des Figures<br />

Fig. 1.1. A change in q and imperfect substitution with the x ‟s .............................. 39<br />

Fig. 1.2. Reference-dependent preferences ................................................................. 43<br />

Fig. 1.3. Loss aversion in welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>es ............................................................... 44<br />

Fig. 1.4. Unboundedness of the compensation demanded .......................................... 48<br />

Fig. 1.5. Comparison between reference-dependent indifference curves ................... 51<br />

Fig. 2.1. WTA / WTP disparity from trial 1 to trial 10 ............................................. 72<br />

Fig. 2.2. Exponential regression of WTA / WTP disparity ....................................... 73<br />

Fig. 2.3. Exponential regression of WTA / WTP disparity ....................................... 73<br />

Fig. 3.1. The sequential price weighting function ..................................................... 111<br />

Fig. 4.1. Agents i‟s and j‟s best-response functions .................................................. 147<br />

Fig. 4.2. Income transfer with strategic substitutes ................................................... 151<br />

Fig. 4.3. Income transfer with strategic complements .............................................. 151<br />

Fig. 4.4. The aggregate level of provisions ............................................................... 152


Table des Tableaux<br />

Table 1.1. Four welfare indices ................................................................................... 34<br />

Table 1.2. Welfare indices and context-dependence ................................................... 41<br />

Table 1.3. Welfare indices in a gain and loss perspective ........................................... 45<br />

Table 2.1. Summary statistics of the BDM, SPA and NPA mechanisms ................... 70<br />

Table 2.2. Exponential regression statistics ................................................................ 74<br />

Table 3.1. Unitary sequential weight coefficients ..................................................... 114<br />

Table 3.2. Summary statistics of the uniform and s-shaped theoretical estimates .... 115<br />

Table 3.3. � -factors statistics ................................................................................... 118<br />

Table 3.4. Comparison between extra expected and real winners from deviation .... 120<br />

Table 3.5. Comparison between extra expected and real gains from deviation ........ 121


11<br />

Chapitre 0<br />

Introduction Générale


0.1. Le préambule<br />

12<br />

"<strong>La</strong> nature n‟est ni morale ni immorale,<br />

elle est radieusement, glorieusement,<br />

amorale." Théodore Monod<br />

L‟évaluation économique des biens et services publics environnementaux<br />

répond à un double objectif : en premier lieu, produire un ordre de grandeur, en<br />

des termes monétaires, des services rendus par l‟environnement afin qu‟ils soient<br />

incorporés dans les décisions publiques à leur juste valeur ; en second lieu,<br />

apporter des éléments qui permettent de bâtir des politiques de l‟environnement<br />

tout en prenant en compte les préférences des agents économiques.<br />

<strong>La</strong> thèse publique en évaluation économique développée dans ce manuscrit<br />

se compose de quatre essais. Le premier interroge la nature des préférences des<br />

agents économiques pour les biens publics <strong>sur</strong> un marché hypothétique. Le<br />

deuxième examine le bien-fondé des mécanismes d‟enchères pour révéler les<br />

préférences environnementales. Le troisième considère la question de la sincérité<br />

des valeurs révélées en enchères répétées. Enfin, le quatrième appréhende ce qui<br />

motive les agents à financer un bien public, le financement et la valeur qu‟ils<br />

attribuent au bien publique étant des corrélatives, en dépit de l‟intérêt rationnel à<br />

se comporter en passager clandestin.<br />

<strong>La</strong> démarche scientifique transdisciplinaire qui consiste à mettre des<br />

concepts d‟horizons divers en relation les uns avec les autres – démarche que nous<br />

nous sommes efforcés d‟entreprendre tout au long de cette recherche – apporte des<br />

propositions à des questions soulevées en économie de l‟environnement et plus<br />

généralement celle des biens publics. Les essais n‟édifient pas de lois de la nature<br />

(quitte à y divertir d‟éventuels détracteurs des sciences économiques) et ouvrent<br />

autant de débats qu‟ils n‟en closent. Toutefois, nous espérons qu‟ils donnent une<br />

plus grande compréhension du comportement individuel vis-à-vis d‟un bien public


en contexte d‟échange marchand, et portent à la connaissance ce qui constitue la<br />

valeur économique de l‟environnement 1 .<br />

0.2. L’approche économique<br />

L‟environnement et les ressources naturelles fournissent aux agents des<br />

services essentiels tous les jours. Les pouvoirs publics ont nécessité de les évaluer<br />

pour budgéter les politiques environnementales. Si l‟environnement a une valeur,<br />

il n‟a pas de prix. Dès lors, comment justifier les montants d‟investissements<br />

inhérents à sa gestion ainsi que les dépenses pour la mise à disposition des biens<br />

publics ? L‟analyse économique permet de comparer les coûts et les bénéfices<br />

d‟actions envers l‟environnement, ce qui en fait un outil de décision robuste pour<br />

évaluer les politiques et mieux légiférer. Appliquée à l‟environnement, l‟approche<br />

économique se divise en régulation et évaluation. Elle observe et modélise les<br />

préférences des agents (eux-mêmes présumés conscients de leurs préférences) par<br />

rapport à leur cadre de vie, le milieu naturel dans le cas présent.<br />

<strong>La</strong> régulation représente l‟ensemble des règles qui ont pour but de<br />

maintenir l‟équilibre du marché. L‟absence de marché des biens publics implique<br />

l‟intervention de l‟État. <strong>La</strong> régulation devient alors la mise en place de règles de<br />

conduite qui permettent de maximiser le bien-être social. Les politiques s‟appuient<br />

généralement <strong>sur</strong> la régulation, à travers la taxation des pollueurs imaginée par<br />

Pigou en 1929 ainsi que les compensations monétaires fixées par le droit commun.<br />

Cependant, l‟absence de marché induit l‟absence de prix, lequel est un vecteur<br />

d‟information <strong>sur</strong> la valeur du bien. Il en résulte distorsions de valeur, coûts de<br />

transactions et asymétries d‟information très coûteuses en efficacité. En effet, peu<br />

de politiques environnementales se basent <strong>sur</strong> le critère d‟efficacité, notamment<br />

parce que les décideurs publics ont d‟autres objectifs que l‟efficacité économique,<br />

tels que l‟équité ou bien la soutenabilité des systèmes de ressources (Freeman<br />

1 S‟agissant d‟une thèse publique, malgré des efforts de vulgarisation, les quatre chapitres qui<br />

composent cette thèse comportent quelques passages techniques difficiles. Nous sollicitons<br />

l‟indulgence du lecteur intéressé mais non-initié.<br />

13


2003). Pourtant, l‟analyse économique se propose justement d‟éclairer le décideur<br />

<strong>sur</strong> les critères a minima lesquels permettent le développement durable ; et<br />

développement durable ne signifie pas développement souhaitable (Sinclair-<br />

Desgagné 2007a) qui relève d‟autres grilles de lecture sociétales.<br />

L‟évaluation économique consiste à montrer que l‟environnement a une<br />

valeur d‟usage. Préserver cet usage intact revient à s‟exprimer <strong>sur</strong> des projets qui<br />

impactent, positivement et négativement, le niveau de qualité environnementale,<br />

puis à arbitrer entre coûts et bénéfices. Il s‟agit de l‟analyse coût-bénéfice, basée<br />

<strong>sur</strong> la prise en compte des équivalents monétaires que les individus considèrent<br />

pertinents pour refléter leurs préférences (Gatzweiler et Volkmann 2007). Par<br />

exemple, cela signifie que les individus sont capables d‟associer des valeurs<br />

monétaires à des niveaux de préservation d‟un milieu naturel. Cette capacité<br />

d‟association est la pierre angulaire de l‟analyse économique <strong>sur</strong> les questions<br />

environnementales. Sans celle-ci, il apparaît impossible d‟appliquer des principes<br />

économiques développés en théorie du bien-être. L‟environnement naturel a donc<br />

une valeur économique, mais il n‟y a toujours pas de consensus <strong>sur</strong> la nature de<br />

cette valeur ou <strong>sur</strong> les meilleurs outils pour la me<strong>sur</strong>er.<br />

D‟un côté, les économistes néoclassiques lient la valeur d‟un bien ou<br />

service à l‟utilité, ou la satisfaction des préférences, qu‟il procure. Selon ce mode<br />

de pensée qu‟on peut définir comme anthropocentrique, l‟environnement a une<br />

valeur instrumentale, laquelle dépend des préférences des agents qui le<br />

considèrent comme un moyen et non comme une fin en soi (même un parc naturel<br />

est un moyen qui rend possibles la contemplation de la vie sauvage et la<br />

randonnée en milieu naturel). En effet, le socle de l‟analyse coût-bénéfice repose<br />

<strong>sur</strong> la logique instrumentale. <strong>La</strong> somme qu‟un individu est disposé à dépenser<br />

pour satisfaire ses préférences reflète la valeur qu‟il accorde au bien. Il est donc<br />

possible de révéler la valeur du bien à travers sa demande (Bateman et al. 2002).<br />

Les économistes calculent ensuite le taux auquel un agent est prêt à substituer ce<br />

bien pour un autre (en l‟occurrence, cet autre bien est le numéraire dans lequel<br />

sont me<strong>sur</strong>és les prix). Ce taux est capté par les indices de consentement-à-payer<br />

maximal (le CAP) et de consentement-à-recevoir minimal (le CAR). Les valeurs<br />

14


économiques sont d‟ordinaire révélées dans le cadre d‟une institution fondée <strong>sur</strong><br />

l‟échange. Le principe est que tous les agents possèdent la même quantité<br />

d‟informations <strong>sur</strong> le bien à valoriser, soit l‟absence d‟asymétrie d‟information.<br />

De l‟autre côté, les environnementalistes accordent au milieu naturel une<br />

valeur de non-usage, c‟est-à-dire une valeur intrinsèque ou per se. Or la valeur de<br />

non-usage est indépendante des prix du marché, si bien qu‟elle ne peut pas être<br />

approximée autrement que par l‟évaluation hors-marché. Sachant que les<br />

différentes natures de la valeur sont imbriquées dans ce qui serait la vraie valeur<br />

d‟un bien ou service, O‟Neill (1993) considère simplificateur d‟utiliser un outil<br />

d‟évaluation basé <strong>sur</strong> la commen<strong>sur</strong>abilité et la représentation monétaire.<br />

Diamond et Hausman (1994) affirment même que les agents n‟ont pas de<br />

préférences dites environnementales. Toutefois, les individus sont d‟expérience<br />

disposés à payer ou recevoir une valeur monétaire pour un bien ou service<br />

environnemental, prouvant ainsi qu‟ils sont prêts à substituer des biens entre eux,<br />

et donc à rendre comparables des biens privés avec des biens publics. Si la<br />

conversion monétaire était irrecevable, son refus serait observable quel que soit le<br />

contexte, ce qui n‟est pas le cas. C‟est pourquoi ont été introduits les marchés<br />

hypothétiques tels que l‟évaluation contingente initiée par Ciriacy-Wantrup<br />

(1947).<br />

L‟autre problème concerne la nature publique des biens et services<br />

environnementaux. En effet, ils sont des biens publics, donc par définition non<br />

exclusifs, c‟est-à-dire qu‟aucun agent ne peut être exclu de leur consommation, et<br />

non rivaux, à savoir que l‟usage d‟un agent n‟entrave pas celle d‟un autre agent.<br />

Comme les biens publics ne s‟échangent pas <strong>sur</strong> un marché, il en résulte absence<br />

du taux de substitution et du prix d‟échange. Néanmoins, grâce aux marchés<br />

hypothétiques, l‟agrégation des valeurs privées permet de construire une courbe<br />

de demande pour le bien public. Il est donc raisonnablement possible de baser les<br />

politiques environnementales <strong>sur</strong> les évaluations privées issues des enquêtes<br />

montées à cet effet.<br />

Il est argué que les problèmes liés à l‟environnement sont dus à l‟absence<br />

de définition adéquate des droits de propriété. Le prétexte juridique a souvent<br />

15


déplacé le débat des biens publics en dehors du sentier économique, par le fait que<br />

le CAP place l‟agent en position d‟acquéreur tandis que le CAR place l‟agent en<br />

situation de propriétaire ; alors que le bien public correspond au statut<br />

intermédiaire de copropriété. De fait ou par défaut, les normes juridiques sont<br />

devenues l‟instrument utilisé par les pouvoirs publics. Pourtant, les autorités<br />

régulatrices pourraient rétablir la logique du marché en régulant via des prix.<br />

L‟idée que l‟évaluation économique ne peut pas résoudre les questions de biens<br />

publics en raison de la logique marchande – qui serait inapte à traduire leur valeur<br />

sociale –, et que seul l‟aménagement juridique des droits individuels à l‟usage des<br />

biens publics en est capable, est sans véritable fondement. D‟abord, si les prix<br />

sont incomplets, comme le montrent les externalités négatives souvent citées en<br />

exemple pour justifier l‟échec des marchés, la juridiction l‟est autant. Créer des<br />

marchés hypothétiques pour l‟environnement, c‟est ni plus ni moins prendre en<br />

compte ces externalités, et la <strong>sur</strong>veillance des parties prenantes peut se substituer à<br />

l‟autorité publique. Ensuite, la mise en place d‟un arsenal juridique est onéreuse,<br />

et il appartient aux autorités régulatrices de minimiser les coûts d‟administration,<br />

parce que d‟autres politiques publiques peuvent être initiées et rétribuées par la<br />

réalisation de ces économies.<br />

L‟ère est à la rationalisation des dépenses publiques qui ont trop longtemps<br />

manqué dans les finances publiques, entraînant des gaspillages dont les coûts sont<br />

supportés par la <strong>société</strong> civile. Ainsi, Montgomery (1972) a démontré que le coût<br />

d‟implémentation d‟une politique environnementale par les instruments de marché<br />

tels que les droits d‟émission était minimisé à l‟équilibre. Également, d‟après<br />

Sinclair-Desgagné (2007b), "il incombe à l‟État de veiller au bon fonctionnement<br />

du mécanisme des prix [e]n réduisant le nombre de biens collectifs par<br />

l‟instauration de conditions propices à la naissance et au fonctionnement de<br />

marchés efficaces." Rappelons qu‟en situation de copropriété, de nombreuses<br />

décisions sont prises à la majorité, évitant le piège de l‟unanimité qui ne peut<br />

exister en analyse économique compte tenu de l‟hétérogénéité des préférences.<br />

Enfin, la démarche qui consiste à aller directement interroger les citoyens <strong>sur</strong> les<br />

questions environnementales n‟est-elle pas la plus démocratique qui soit ?<br />

16


0.3. Les méthodes d’élicitation<br />

<strong>La</strong> méthode des préférences révélées déduit la valeur de l‟environnement à<br />

partir des décisions prises par les agents économiques. Son ambition est<br />

d‟observer le comportement effectif de l‟agent, sensé traduire ses préférences et la<br />

valeur qu‟il accorde à l‟environnement. Cette méthode utilise les données du<br />

marché existantes pour extraire la valeur implicite d‟un bien. De la sorte,<br />

Hotelling (1949) a proposé la méthode indirecte des coûts de transport pour<br />

évaluer la demande pour les loisirs dans les milieux naturels. Cependant, les<br />

préférences révélées ne fonctionnent que si on dispose de données du marché.<br />

Il est souvent difficile d‟obtenir des données du marché relatives aux<br />

questions environnementales, aussi une part importante des études repose-t-elle<br />

<strong>sur</strong> les préférences déclarées, à l‟égal de l‟évaluation contingente. L‟évaluation<br />

contingente prend la forme d‟une enquête d‟opinion dans laquelle on demande<br />

aux individus de déclarer combien ils sont disposés à payer pour éviter une<br />

dégradation de l‟environnement ou bien combien ils sont disposés à recevoir en<br />

compensation pour laisser faire cette dégradation. Les valeurs – assimilées aux<br />

prix du marché hypothétique – sont ensuite agrégées pour calculer la valeur<br />

monétaire globale. Le but de l‟évaluation contingente a d‟abord été de me<strong>sur</strong>er la<br />

disposition à payer pour as<strong>sur</strong>er la disponibilité d‟un service environnemental.<br />

Mais, la dégradation accrue de l‟environnement a fait basculer cette littérature<br />

vers des études portant <strong>sur</strong> des dommages subis par le milieu naturel (voir Carson<br />

et al. 1992).<br />

Même si la méthode permet de prendre en compte la valeur de non-usage<br />

(Walsh et al. 1984) défendue par les environnementalistes, sa limite réside dans le<br />

fait qu‟elle est source de nombreux biais : risque de questions mal formulées qui<br />

orienteraient les réponses ; mauvaise perception du bien à évaluer ; réponse<br />

stratégique plutôt que sincère ; apparition de biais cognitifs incompatibles avec la<br />

rationalité. En effet, les individus valorisent un scénario hypothétique. L‟absence<br />

des incitations du marché, qui prennent la forme des contraintes budgétaires et de<br />

mise en disponibilité des substituts, produit donc des données contestables. Par<br />

17


exemple, les agents peuvent promettre des sommes destinées à la protection de<br />

l‟environnement largement supérieures à celles qu‟ils sont réellement prêts à<br />

payer (Diamond et Hausmann 1994, Hanemann 1994, Neill et al. 1994). Rien<br />

n‟incite donc l‟individu à donner sa vraie valeur lors d‟une déclaration. Les<br />

préférences déclarées ont ainsi été accueillies avec pyrrhonisme, voire hostilité.<br />

Lorsque les agents considèrent leurs déclarations inconséquentialistes,<br />

toutes les réponses se valent. Même en vertu de la sincérité des agents (ce qui<br />

demeure hypothétique), ceux-ci n‟ont pas incitation à engager d‟efforts cognitifs<br />

importants lorsqu‟ils doivent formuler une déclaration, ce qui rend les valeurs<br />

déclarées potentiellement bruyantes ou biaisées. Dans le cas où les agents<br />

considèrent leurs déclarations conséquentialistes, ils sont incités à donner des<br />

réponses fictives, comme minimiser leurs CAP s‟ils s‟aperçoivent que le projet<br />

porte <strong>sur</strong> la création d‟une nouvelle taxe, afin d‟influencer les décideurs publics<br />

qui peuvent être dans la projection d‟une réélection et donc dans l‟opportunisme.<br />

0.4. Les enchères expérimentales<br />

Puisque les économistes doivent en tout état de cause éliciter des valeurs<br />

pour mener à bien des analyses coût-bénéfice et estimer les effets d‟une politique<br />

publique <strong>sur</strong> le bien-être des agents (Boardman et al. 2005) pourquoi ne pas<br />

utiliser les mécanismes d‟enchères ? En effet, les économistes s‟intéressent aux<br />

enchères expérimentales depuis un certain temps déjà : Bohm (1972), Brookshire<br />

et Coursey (1987), Hoffman et al. (1993), Shogren et al. (1994), Shogren et al.<br />

(2001), Rozan et al. (2004), Lusk et al. (2007). <strong>La</strong> seule méthode capable à ce<br />

jour de combiner les avantages des préférences révélées avec la possibilité de<br />

construire un marché simulé est le mécanisme de ventes aux enchères. Simuler un<br />

marché en laboratoire, c‟est créer un marché qui n‟existe pas, pour quelques<br />

heures et avec quelques individus recrutés à cette fin. Cette création temporaire<br />

n‟a pas d‟autre finalité que d‟observer le comportement des agents <strong>sur</strong> le marché,<br />

seul capable de révéler les CAP (Robin et al. 2007).<br />

18


<strong>La</strong> valeur ajoutée des enchères expérimentales réside dans le fait qu‟elles<br />

peuvent s‟appliquer à n‟importe quel type de bien non-marchand, ou évaluer les<br />

programmes sociaux enclins aux divergences d‟intérêts (Heckman 2001). Bien<br />

que les mécanismes de marché de type ventes aux enchères aient initialement été<br />

conçus pour éliciter la valeur des loteries et tester la validité de l‟utilité espérée<br />

(Becker et al. 1964), ils ont depuis été largement repris pour des biens réels,<br />

notamment la protection de l‟environnement (Cummings et al. 1986).<br />

Les enchères expérimentales mettent les individus en situation d‟échange<br />

actif. Quand bien même ils prendraient en compte les données du marché et<br />

réviseraient leurs préférences en fonction de celles-ci, la compatibilité avec les<br />

incitations des mécanismes d‟enchères induit un coût désincitatif à dévier des<br />

préférences sincères ; rappelons que toutes les conséquences monétaires issues des<br />

décisions sont réelles. Par ailleurs, les chercheurs peuvent y observer la manière<br />

dont les agents réagissent aux signaux publics tels que les prix de compensation.<br />

Ils ont à disposition des données directes – par opposition aux données indirectes<br />

à l‟exemple des coûts de transport – afin de révéler la valeur économique d‟un<br />

bien. Les problématiques résolues par des expériences d‟évaluation sont<br />

nombreuses (Willinger 2001) mais nous nous contenterons de citer la différence<br />

entre le CAP et le CAR (Knetsch et Sinden 1984, Brookshire et Coursey 1987,<br />

Shogren et al. 1994, Shogren et al. 2001, Horowitz et McConnell 2003) ou encore<br />

l‟effet de dotation (Samuelson et Zeckhauser 1988, Kahneman et al. 1990,<br />

Horowitz et al. 2005, Bischoff 2008).<br />

Néanmoins, la validité externe des données de laboratoire est souvent<br />

remise en question. On accuse les expériences de simplisme ; on leur reproche<br />

l‟effet de contexte éloigné de la réalité, c‟est-à-dire un manque de reproduction<br />

fidèle des comportements des individus, comme dans une épicerie par exemple.<br />

Pour autant, le décideur public doit s‟accommoder de l‟absence du marché de<br />

référence. Il est inutile d‟essayer de répliquer le marché réel en laboratoire, car la<br />

simplicité permet d‟isoler de nombreux paramètres noyés dans la complexité du<br />

monde réel, ce qui améliore le contrôle de l‟étude (Friedman et Sunder 1994). En<br />

effet, le marché simulé en laboratoire permet de contrôler les variables<br />

19


décisionnelles qui pèsent <strong>sur</strong> le CAP et d‟étudier l‟impact d‟une variation à la<br />

marge de l‟une de ces variables décisionnelles, toutes choses étant égales par<br />

ailleurs (Robin et al. 2007). L‟expérimentation en laboratoire doit donc être jugée<br />

<strong>sur</strong> la qualité de la compréhension des préférences qu‟elle produit, non <strong>sur</strong> la<br />

qualité du facsimilé.<br />

0.5. Le résumé de la thèse<br />

Après ce bref chapitre introductif, nous aborderons dans un premier<br />

chapitre la question de l‟équivalence entre le CAP et le CAR. <strong>La</strong> disparité entre<br />

les deux indices a de profondes conséquences <strong>sur</strong> les prises de décision<br />

environnementales. Brown et Gregory (1999) mentionnent la formation des<br />

politiques de développement durable et l‟allocation des droits. Tout autant, on<br />

peut se demander comment baser les décisions publiques si les valeurs sont<br />

qualifiées d‟inconsistantes par rapport au choix rationnel ? Si la disparité était au<br />

départ associée aux carences de la méthode de mise en œuvre des enquêtes, les<br />

racines du problème s‟avèrent être sensiblement plus profondes. Eu égard à<br />

l‟évaluation des biens publics, nous pensons que la disparité est due à la<br />

substituabilité imparfaite entre les biens privés et publiques, ainsi qu‟en raison de<br />

perceptions différenciées des agents économiques entre gains et pertes. C‟est à<br />

cette problématique que le premier chapitre se consacre.<br />

Ainsi, le Chapitre 1 traite de la disparité entre les indices CAP et CAR<br />

dans l‟évaluation hors-marché. Dans la littérature, l‟effet de substitution et l‟effet<br />

de dotation sont tenus responsables de l‟existence des disparités. Nous montrons<br />

que la substituabilité imparfaite dans la fonction d‟utilité indirecte peut provoquer<br />

la disparité soit entre le CAP et le CAR – en raison du coût d‟opportunité –, soit<br />

entre les gains et les pertes, où il s‟agit d‟évaluer une perte sèche. <strong>La</strong> me<strong>sur</strong>e en<br />

termes relatifs accentue la substituabilité imparfaite, mais l‟effet de substitution<br />

est borné dans le modèle d‟aversion aux pertes.<br />

Ce premier chapitre prépare le terrain pour le Chapitre 2, où nous évaluons<br />

un vrai bien public dans un contexte d‟enchères expérimentales. Les offres d‟achat<br />

20


et de vente reflètent le CAP et le CAR, d‟où leur importance. L‟effet de dotation<br />

et le choix du meilleur mécanisme d‟enchères y sont examinés. Les études en<br />

enchères expérimentales jusqu‟ici menées ont porté <strong>sur</strong> des biens privés non<br />

marchands ; elles sont supposées divulguer ce qui se passerait en présence de<br />

biens publics, car il est a priori difficile d‟envisager une expérience où le bien<br />

public est échangé (Robin et al. 2007). Nous y parvenons. Nous n‟employons pas<br />

de valeurs induites mais laissons libre cours aux valeurs autoproduites par les<br />

sujets d‟étude recrutés pour l‟occasion. L‟étude nous permet de vérifier si, <strong>sur</strong> des<br />

marchés simulés, bien privé non marchand et bien public sont évalués de manière<br />

identique.<br />

Ainsi, nous évaluons l‟impact de trois mécanismes d‟enchère – le<br />

mécanisme Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM), l‟enchère au deuxième prix, et<br />

l‟enchère aléatoire au nième prix – dans l‟évaluation des CAP et CAR privés d‟un<br />

bien public pur. Nos résultats montrent que l‟effet de dotation peut être éliminé en<br />

répétant le mécanisme BDM. Néanmoins, à l‟échelle logarithmique, l‟enchère<br />

aléatoire au nième prix donne la vitesse de convergence vers l‟égalité des indices<br />

de bien-être la plus élevée. Plus généralement, nous observons que les sujets<br />

d‟étude évaluent les biens publics en se référant à l‟avantage privé et subjectif qui<br />

résulte du financement du bien public.<br />

Par la suite, le Chapitre 3 discute de la sincérité des préférences en<br />

enchères expérimentales répétées et traite des propriétés incitatives des<br />

mécanismes BDM et l‟enchère aléatoire au nième prix. Une propriété des<br />

mécanismes d‟enchères est la compatibilité avec les incitations, dans laquelle un<br />

offreur a une stratégie faiblement dominante de soumettre une offre égale à sa<br />

valeur. Il a été prouvé que les deux mécanismes sont compatibles avec les<br />

incitations. En évaluation, on répète des sessions d‟enchères pour donner aux<br />

offreurs l‟opportunité d‟apprendre le mécanisme de marché : leur donner du temps<br />

pour révéler leurs préférences. Or, ce procédé les contre-incite à adapter leurs<br />

préférences en fonction des prix publiquement signalés, si bien qu‟il crée un<br />

risque de licitation stratégique (par opposition aux offres sincères). Si les offreurs<br />

s‟engagent dans des stratégies déviantes pour faire face à l‟incertitude <strong>sur</strong> la<br />

21


valeur du bien public, les mécanismes d‟enchères perdent leur propriété de<br />

compatibilité avec les incitations et révèlent de fausses préférences.<br />

Lorsque les prix dépendent des offres soumises, c‟est-à-dire en présence de<br />

mécanismes de marché répétés avec prix de compensation endogènes, l‟hypothèse<br />

de l‟indépendance des valeurs privées – sous-jacente à la compatibilité avec les<br />

incitations – est remise en question ; même si ce type de mécanismes fournit une<br />

participation active et un apprentissage du marché. Dans sa vision orthodoxe, le<br />

comportement marchand d‟adaptation met en péril la compatibilité avec les<br />

incitations. Nous introduisons un modèle qui montre que les enchérisseurs licitent<br />

suivant l‟heuristique d‟ancrage et d‟ajustement, dépendante d‟une fonction de<br />

pondération séquentielle, laquelle prend en compte les contraintes de compatibilité<br />

avec les incitations sans rejeter les prix signalés issus des autres offres. En déviant<br />

de leur ancrage dans le sens du signal public, les enchérisseurs opèrent dans un<br />

équilibre corrélé.<br />

En dernier lieu, Vatn (2005) estime que les préférences environnementales<br />

dépendent des normes sociales intériorisées : elles sont socialement contingentes.<br />

Comme le prouve l‟expérience du Chapitre 2, les contributions privées aux biens<br />

publics sont issues d‟une démarche d‟évaluation. Elles sont conduites aussi bien<br />

par des incitations asociales que sociales. Si l‟offre privée du bien public est<br />

stimulée à la fois par une rationalité qui dicte de ne pas contribuer au bien public<br />

et de profiter de l‟effort fourni par la collectivité, et par l‟appétit pour la<br />

reconnaissance sociale qui incite à se faire publiquement connaître en tant que<br />

généreux donateur, laquelle des deux motivations domine ?<br />

Le Chapitre 4 fait ainsi la comparaison entre déculpabilisation et<br />

compétition pour le statut social dans la provision privée des biens publics.<br />

Lorsque les agents sont intrinsèquement impulsés, c‟est-à-dire qu‟ils contribuent<br />

essentiellement aux biens publics dans le but de soulager leur culpabilité d‟avoir<br />

indirectement participé à leur dégradation, ils tendent à se comporter en passagers<br />

clandestins. En revanche, lorsque les agents sont extrinsèquement impulsés et se<br />

mettent en compétition pour atteindre du statut social qu‟ils visent par le<br />

financement des biens publics à titre privé, leurs contributions deviennent des<br />

22


compléments stratégiques. Dans ce cas, le niveau agrégé des biens publics croît<br />

avec la réduction des écarts de revenus entre les agents. Injecter de la compétition<br />

pour le statut social dans des fonctions d‟utilité augmente les contributions aux<br />

biens publics, et donc leur niveau global, faisant de la concurrence une incitation<br />

féconde pour résoudre le problème du passager clandestin.<br />

0.6. Les recommandations de politique publique<br />

Quatre recommandations découlent de ce travail de recherche, à savoir que<br />

nous suggérons de : (1) conduire des expériences de marchés simulés et répéter<br />

des sessions de marché pour évaluer les préférences environnementales ; évaluer<br />

à la fois les deux indices de bien-être ; (2) privilégier les mécanismes d’enchères<br />

tels que BDM et l’enchère aléatoire au nième prix, pour la raison qu’ils sont<br />

capables de réduire, voire supprimer, l’écart initial entre les indices en sessions<br />

répétées ; si l’écart persiste, considérer les valeurs comme une fourchette révélée<br />

par l’ensemble des individus ; (3) tolérer l’influence des prix de compensation<br />

signalés <strong>sur</strong> la licitation, celle-ci révélant la rationalité limitée des individus<br />

plutôt que leur imposture ; (4) inciter à la provision privée des biens publics, et<br />

encourager ce type d’actions par leur mise en valeur sociale, tout en s’as<strong>sur</strong>ant<br />

de transferts de revenu des agents économiques à haut revenu vers des agents<br />

économiques à bas revenu, afin que la compétition accroît le niveau des biens<br />

publics.<br />

0.7. Références<br />

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Lee, M., Loomes, G., Mourato, S., Ozdemiroglu, E., Pearce, D.W., Sugden,<br />

R., et Swanson, J. (ed.) (2002), Economic Valuation with Stated Preference<br />

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Becker, G., DeGroot, M., et Marschak, J. (1964), “Mea<strong>sur</strong>ing Utility by a Single<br />

Response Sequential Method”, Behavioral Science, 9: 226-232.<br />

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Bischoff, I. (2008), “Endowment effect theory, prediction bias and publicly<br />

provided goods: an experimental study”, Environmental and Resource<br />

Economics, 39: 283–296<br />

Boardman, A., Greenberg, A., et Weimer, D. (2005), “Cost Benefit Analysis:<br />

Concepts and Practice”, 3rd ed. Prentice Hall.<br />

Bohm, P. (1972) “Estimating Demand for Public Goods: An Experiment”,<br />

European Economic Review, 3(2), pp. 111-30.<br />

Brookshire, D., et Coursey, D. (1987) "Mea<strong>sur</strong>ing the Value of a Public Good: An<br />

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Brown, T., et Gregory, R. (1999), “Why the WTP–WTA disparity matters”,<br />

Ecological Economics, 28: 323–335.<br />

Carson, R., Mitchell, R., Hanemann, W., Kopp, R., Presser, S., et Ruud, P. (1992),<br />

“A Contingent Valuation Study of Lost Passive Use Values Resulting From<br />

the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill”, Unpublished.<br />

Ciriacy-Wantrup S. (1947), “Capital returns from soil conservation practices”,<br />

Journal of Farm Economics, 29: 1181–1186.<br />

Cummings, R., Brookshire, D., et Schulze, W., editors (1986), Valuing<br />

Environmental Goods - An Assessment of the Contingent Valuation Method,<br />

Rowman and Allanheld, Totowa, New Jersey.<br />

Diamond, P., et Hausman, J. (1994), “Contingent valuation: is some number better<br />

than no number?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8: 45– 64.<br />

Gatzweiler, F., et Volkmann, J., (2007), “Beyond Economic Efficiency in<br />

Biodiversity Conservation”, ICAR Discussion Papers 1807, Humboldt<br />

University Berlin.<br />

Freeman, A. (2003), “The Mea<strong>sur</strong>ement of Environmental and Resource Values:<br />

Theory and Methods”, Edition 2, Resources for the Future (Washington, D.C.)<br />

Friedman, D. et Sunder, S. (1994) “Experimental Methods: A Primer for<br />

Economists”, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.<br />

Hanemann, M. (1994), “Valuing the Environment Through Contigent Valuation”,<br />

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8: 19–43.<br />

Heckman, J. (2001), “Accounting for Heterogeneity, Diversity, and General<br />

Equilibrium in Evaluating Social Programs”, Economic Journal, 111: 654–<br />

699.<br />

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Hoffman, E., Menkhaus, D., Chakravarti, D., Field, R., et Whipple, G. (1993),<br />

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Horowitz, J., et McConnell, K. (2003) “Willingness to Accept, Willingness to Pay<br />

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537-545.<br />

Lusk, J., Alexander, C., et Rousu, M. (2007), “Designing Experimental Auctions<br />

For Marketing Research: Effect Of Values, Distributions, And Mechanisms<br />

On Incentives For Truthful Bidding”, Review of Marketing Science, 5: 1-30<br />

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Programs”, Journal of Economic Theory, 5: 395–418.<br />

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70: 145–154.<br />

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EVE Policy Research Brief, Number 7.<br />

26


27<br />

Chapter 1<br />

Imperfect Substitutability in Standard<br />

and Reference-Dependence Models<br />

Abstract<br />

This chapter focuses on the disparity between willingness-to-pay and willingness-toaccept<br />

indices in nonmarket valuation. In the literature, the substitution effect and the<br />

endowment effect are presumed to cause the disparities. We show that imperfect<br />

substitutability in the indirect utility function can lead to disparity either between<br />

WTA and WTP – due to the opportunity loss – or between gains and losses, which<br />

reflects a net loss. Context-dependent valuation accentuates the imperfect<br />

substitutability, but the substitution effect is bounded inside the behavioral model of<br />

loss aversion.<br />

Keywords: contingent valuation, WTP-WTA disparity, substitution effect, loss<br />

aversion<br />

JEL Classification: D61, D81, Q51


1.1. Introduction<br />

"A thing does not have value because it costs,<br />

as people suppose; instead it costs because it<br />

has a value." Étienne Bonnot de Condillac<br />

The debate on how policy-makers compare the benefits derived from one<br />

public plan against another has been led by the cost-benefit analysis. In this debate,<br />

the quest for revealing nonmarket values induced the direct contingent valuation<br />

method based on the Hicksian C and E , i.e. the individual‟s maximum willingness-<br />

to-pay (or best offer) to guarantee the change and the minimum willingness-to-accept<br />

(or reservation price) to sacrifice the change.<br />

Empirical and experimental studies have given evidence of large disparity<br />

between WTP and WTA, which makes impractical the use of values estimates<br />

derived from the contingent valuation. Experimental laboratory markets confirmed<br />

persistency in disparities (Knetsch and Sinden 1984; Brookshire and Coursey 1987).<br />

To justify the disparity, theorists invoked the substitution effect or the context-<br />

dependent endowment effect, and oriented the effects in rivalry. The substitution<br />

effect results from the agent‟s imperfect trade-off between private goods and public<br />

goods. The loss aversion output, that is, the endowment effect, makes agents value<br />

losses higher than equivalent gains. Morrison (1997) asserts that the endowment<br />

effect and the substitution effect play a combined role in the disparity.<br />

To be loss averse, an agent has to consider herself an owner of the public<br />

good. In general, dealing with substitution rather than endowment allows to study the<br />

consumers‟ behavior without the constraint of the initial allocation of property rights.<br />

As Sinclair-Desgagné (2005) emphasizes, the property rights remain difficult to<br />

establish, guarantee, or to legitimate in public policies, whereas in a market, the price<br />

of a good or service signals the value of the resources; agents adjust their preferences<br />

and make necessary substitutions. We consider a gain in the environmental level as a<br />

non-essential right. In reverse, a compensation for a loss of the environmental level is<br />

an essential right that agents express by means of high valuation statements. This<br />

28


distinction explains the difference between the standard disparity and the gain and<br />

loss disparity in terms of the property rights.<br />

This chapter brings out three elements. First, through convex preferences or<br />

quasi-concave utility functions, where agents prefer mixed over extreme consumption<br />

bundles of private and public goods, we show that, akin to the standard disparity<br />

between WTP and WTA, the gain and loss disparity is prone to imperfect<br />

substitutability. Second, the nature of the disparities is different, simply because<br />

agents do not tolerate a loss in the same way they bear a foregone gain. Inside the<br />

neoclassical paradigm, the substitution effect works as an opportunity loss 2 : the lower<br />

the substitutability, the higher the opportunity loss. But the utility of an agent does not<br />

change along the indifference curve. At worst, an agent faces the status quo. On the<br />

contrary, when an agent is asked to value the loss of the public good and to weigh this<br />

loss against an equivalent gain, the opportunity loss becomes a net loss. The net loss<br />

is a critical change, for agents attach a high value to the goods or services they cannot<br />

regain. They use the status quo as a reference point to switch to a steeper indifference<br />

curve. This would be the endowment effect, or what Kahneman and Tversky refer to<br />

as loss aversion in their behavioral model. Finally, we emphasize that the substitution<br />

effect – proved to be infinite in the Hicksian context – is bounded inside the<br />

behavioral model of loss aversion.<br />

We recall the basic account of the neoclassical model in Section 1.2, we<br />

provide clarifications of the substitution effect in Section 1.3 and the endowment<br />

effect in Section 1.4. We scrutinize loss aversion through imperfect substitutability in<br />

Section 1.5, and we study boundedness within imperfect substitutability in Section<br />

1.6. Concluding comments are given in Section 1.7.<br />

1.2. The standard model<br />

According to Hicksian theory, an agent has preferences over nonnegative<br />

quantities of goods and her preference ordering is transitive, continuous,<br />

2 By analogy to finance, consider the foregone opportunity to improve the level of the public as an<br />

opportunity cost of an interest in a bank account.<br />

29


nondecreasing and convex 3 . Assume an agent has convex preferences for market<br />

private goods x and some public good such as the environmental quality q . She can<br />

vary the quantity of consumption of the x ‟s, whereas the quantity of q is taken to be<br />

fixed to her. Her preferences are quasi-concave in utility 4 of the x ‟s and represented<br />

by a continuous and nondecreasing utility function u u �x, q�<br />

30<br />

� which is twice<br />

differentiable 5 . The agent faces a budget constraint based on her income y and the<br />

prices of the private goods p . She maximizes her utility subject to a budget<br />

constraint:<br />

u� x q� � p x � y<br />

[1]<br />

max , subject to i i<br />

x<br />

According to [1], the program yields the Marshallian ordinary direct demand<br />

functions x i . Substituting them as functions of � � , py gives the indirect utility<br />

functions which represent agent‟s preference ordering. v�� � is continuous, decreasing,<br />

and quasi-convex:<br />

� , , �<br />

� for i� 1,..., n<br />

[1a]<br />

i<br />

xi h p q y<br />

� � , , �,<br />

� � , , �<br />

u h p q y q � v p q y<br />

[1b]<br />

3 The completeness of preferences implies that utility is complete. When preferences satisfy<br />

completeness and transitivity, preferences are considered to be rational. In addition, when they satisfy<br />

continuity, the utility function is continuous. At last, when preferences are monotonic, utility is<br />

nondecreasing.<br />

4 A quasi-concave utility function means that preferences are convex, that is: for all x and q , and any<br />

� � , u��x�1��q�min �u � x� , u� q��<br />

� , 0 � 1<br />

� � � . It en<strong>sur</strong>es the preference ordering.<br />

5 This assumption eliminates kinks in the indifference curves.


The agent‟s consumption of �x, q�<br />

can also be obtained through a program<br />

that minimizes her expenditures � i i�<br />

�x q�<br />

u , :<br />

� based on her utility level constraint<br />

i px<br />

� pixi u � u� x q�<br />

[2]<br />

min subject to ,<br />

x<br />

Its resolution gives the expenditure or cost function 6 or the minimum amount<br />

of income necessary to achieve an attainable utility level at least as high as u , given<br />

the price vector p :<br />

i<br />

� , , � � , , �<br />

e p q u � � p g p q u for i� 1,..., n<br />

[2a]<br />

i<br />

The expenditure function is jointly continuous in � p, q, u � , strictly increasing<br />

in u , positively linear homogenous, and concave in � pq , �.<br />

Its derivative with respect<br />

to y gives the cost-minimizing demand function or the Hicksian compensated<br />

demand function that delivers optimal quantities at various prices. Moreover, the<br />

income is compensated in such a way as to leave utility unchanged:<br />

� , , �<br />

i<br />

xi g p q u<br />

� for i� 1,..., n<br />

[2b]<br />

So far, preferences are just as well represented by both the indirect utility<br />

function and the expenditure function:<br />

� �<br />

u � v ��p, q, e p, q, u ��<br />

[3]<br />

� �<br />

y � e ��p, q, v p, q, y ��<br />

[4]<br />

6 The expenditure function is twice differentiable due to the assumption that the utility function is<br />

differentiable.<br />

31


to<br />

The standard Hicksian welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>es deal with changes in prices (from<br />

1<br />

p ) while q and y are left unchanged. These changes have an impact on the<br />

indirect utility functions. The compensating variation C is the maximum amount of<br />

income that could be taken from an agent who gains from a particular change while<br />

leaving her no worse-off than before the change. The equivalent variation E is the<br />

minimum amount that an agent who gains from a particular change would be willing<br />

to accept to forego the change after it has taken place.<br />

Definition 1.1.: C and E are implicitly and explicitly defined by:<br />

0 1<br />

0<br />

� , , � � � , , � � and C � y � e� p, q, u �<br />

v p q y v p q y C<br />

1 0<br />

1<br />

� , , � � � , , � � and � , , �<br />

v p q y v p q y E<br />

changes from<br />

E �epqu� y<br />

Now assume changes occur in the levels of the environmental quantity 7 . If q<br />

� , , �<br />

0 0<br />

u � v p q y<br />

� , , �<br />

1 1<br />

u � v p q y<br />

0<br />

q to<br />

1<br />

q , the agent‟s utility changes from<br />

32<br />

0<br />

u to<br />

These changes will also have an impact on the expenditure functions. The<br />

welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>e is the change in expenditure necessary to hold the utility constant, at<br />

the two quantity sets. We can write C and E as the difference between the minimal<br />

expenditure before the change and minimal expenditure after the change given utility<br />

levels<br />

0<br />

u and<br />

1<br />

u :<br />

7 This model does not consider irreversible environmental damages. Therefore, the individual can<br />

always increase the level of the environmental quality and then recover some utility level.<br />

1<br />

u :<br />

0<br />

p


33<br />

0 � , , �<br />

�e<br />

p q u<br />

0 1 0 0 1 0<br />

C � C �q , q , p, y� � e� p, q , u � � e� p, q , u � � �<br />

dq<br />

q �q<br />

1<br />

q<br />

� [3a]<br />

0<br />

1 � , , �<br />

�e<br />

p q u<br />

0 1 0 1 1 1<br />

E � E �q , q , p, y� � e� p, q , u � �e � p, q , u � � �<br />

dq<br />

q �q<br />

1<br />

q<br />

� [3b]<br />

0<br />

The superscripts 0 and 1 indicate the situation before and after the change. C<br />

equals the maximum amount of money an agent could give up in situation 1 without<br />

being worse-off than in situation 0. E equals the minimum amount of money an agent<br />

would require in situation 0 to attain the utility in situation 1. C and E depend on the<br />

starting and ending values of q , and the value of � py , � at which the change takes<br />

places.<br />

In terms of the indirect utility function, C and E are plugged as follows:<br />

� , , � � , , �<br />

0 0 1<br />

u v p q y v p q y C<br />

� � � [4a]<br />

� , , � � , , �<br />

1 1 0<br />

u v p q y v p q y E<br />

� � � [4b]<br />

Be it with indirect utility function or expenditure function, the concepts of<br />

WTP and WTA can be derived from the Hicksian paradigm. Depending on the<br />

direction of the change, C and E may be positive or negative. When the change<br />

improves utility or �u� 0,<br />

C is the agent‟s maximum willingness-to-pay to<br />

guarantee the improvement and E is the agent‟s minimum willingness-to-accept to<br />

forego the improvement. When the change deteriorates utility or �u� 0,<br />

� C is the<br />

agent‟s minimum willingness-to-accept to tolerate the deterioration and � E is the<br />

agent‟s maximum willingness-to-pay to avoid it. This property is obtained by<br />

reversing the initial and final levels (see Table 1.1.) Indeed, Ebert (1984) proves that<br />

the welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>es possess the property of circularity. Therefore, C and E are<br />

0 1 1 0<br />

symmetric or C �q , q � E �q , q �<br />

�� . From [4a] and [4b], we get:


0 1 1 0<br />

� , , , � �� � , , , �<br />

C q q p y E q q p y<br />

0 1 1 0<br />

� , , , � � , , , �<br />

E q q p y �� C q q p y .<br />

Table 1.1. Four welfare indices<br />

1 0<br />

1 0<br />

decline ( u �u � 0 ) growth ( u �u � 0 )<br />

�C� WTA<br />

C � WTP<br />

�E� WTP<br />

E � WTA<br />

As pioneered by Mäler (1974) and taken over by Hanemann (1991), suppose<br />

now an agent can pay for the environmental quality as if it were marketed. She thus<br />

pays for q in this hypothetical market at some implicit price � . The standard price<br />

flexibility of income can be interpreted as the income elasticity of demand for the<br />

environmental quality. We then fix the following programs:<br />

u� x q� � p x ��q� y<br />

[5]<br />

max , subject to i i<br />

x<br />

xq ,<br />

� pixi ��qu�u�xq� [6]<br />

min subject to ,<br />

function:<br />

From which we obtain the following indirect utility function and expenditure<br />

� , , � ˆ � , ˆ ��, , �, � ˆ ��,<br />

, �<br />

v p q y � v �ppquu� � p q u �q<br />

[5a]<br />

i q<br />

eˆ � p, �, u� �� p ˆ � , , � ˆ<br />

ig<br />

p � u ��g�p,<br />

�,<br />

u�<br />

[6a]<br />

The derivative of the Marshallian demand function with respect to � p, q, y �<br />

gives the indirect utility function. Inverted, it gives � , i.e. the inverse demand<br />

34


function to obtain q supplied at ˆ � �� � . In this case, the agent‟s income must be<br />

supplemented so she can both afford q and the x ‟s:<br />

� � �<br />

ˆ q<br />

x �hp, q, y � q<br />

[5b]<br />

i<br />

� p q y�<br />

� � ˆ � , ,<br />

[5c]<br />

The derivative of the expenditure function with respect to � p, q, u � gives the<br />

Hicksian compensated demand function x i . Inverted, it gives the inverse<br />

compensated demand price ˆ � �� � , that is, the price that would induce her to purchase<br />

q units if her income were increased:<br />

� � �<br />

q<br />

x � gˆ p, , u<br />

[6b]<br />

i<br />

� p q u�<br />

� � ˆ � , ,<br />

[6c]<br />

The two inverse demand functions are:<br />

� p, q, y� p, q, v� p, q, y�<br />

ˆ � � ˆ � �� ��<br />

[5'c]<br />

� p, q, u� p, q, e� p, q, u�<br />

ˆ � � ˆ � �� ��<br />

[6'c]<br />

From [5'c] and [6'c] it follows that:<br />

� p, q , u � � p, q , y�<br />

0 0 0 0<br />

� � ˆ � � ˆ �<br />

[7a]<br />

1<br />

� ˆ � p, q , u � � ˆ � p, q , y�<br />

� �<br />

1 1 1<br />

� [7b]<br />

[5] differs with [1] on ˆ � � , , �<br />

� p q u � q . The expenditure function and the<br />

compensated demand function are equal, thus the inverse compensated demand<br />

function for q becomes:<br />

35


�e<br />

e � , , � ˆ<br />

q p q u � � �� �p, q, e� p, q, u��<br />

�q<br />

� �<br />

The inverse demand ˆ � �� � mea<strong>sur</strong>es shadow or virtual prices, or marginal<br />

valuation, or marginal WTP or WTA to pay for a unit of q by the agent, i.e. the<br />

marginal rate of substitution between the x ‟s and q . As the inverse of indirect utility<br />

functions yields the expenditures functions, the inverse of direct utility functions<br />

gives indirect expenditure functions. Combining [5'c] and [6'c] with [4a] and [4b] and<br />

using Shepard‟s Lemma yields the following:<br />

� �<br />

0<br />

1 1<br />

q �e�<br />

p, q, u � q<br />

� ˆ<br />

0 � � 0 � �<br />

[9a]<br />

0 1 0<br />

C � C q , q , p, y � � dq � p, q, u dq<br />

q q<br />

� �<br />

�q<br />

1<br />

1 1<br />

q �e�<br />

p, q, u � q<br />

� ˆ<br />

0 � � 0 � �<br />

[9b]<br />

0 1 1<br />

E � E q , q , p, y � � dq � p, q, u dq<br />

q q<br />

�q<br />

Thus WTP and WTA can be expressed by way of the integral of inverse<br />

compensated demand curves for a change in quantities from<br />

36<br />

0<br />

q to<br />

[8]<br />

1<br />

q . The distinction<br />

between WTP and WTA is the level of utility the compensation is designed to reach:<br />

0<br />

u and<br />

1<br />

u respectively.<br />

Welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>es can also be defined by a distance function (Ebert 1984).<br />

The distance function is a utility function normalized by monetary income, i.e. a<br />

monotonic transformation of the direct utility function for fixed quantities:<br />

d � d( x, q, u)<br />

[10a]<br />

d �� � is continuous, decreasing in u , increasing and positively linear<br />

homogenous, and concave in x . The Shephard‟s input distance function has been<br />

introduced to consumer theory and defined in terms of the utility function (Deaton


1979). The derivatives of d �� � with respect to � , �<br />

compensated demand functions:<br />

� , , � , , ��<br />

i<br />

xi a x q d x q u<br />

37<br />

xq give a set of inverse<br />

� for i� 1,..., n<br />

[10b]<br />

i<br />

a is the normalized price of q with respect to income. The distance function<br />

can be interpreted as an indirect expenditure function. Indeed, duality results show<br />

that the expenditure (cost) function is a distance function derived from the indirect<br />

utility function (Blackorby et al. 1978). Apart from the monotonicity and definition<br />

over different arguments, the expenditure function and the distance function share the<br />

same properties. If we consider the distance function for quantity changes, it is a dual<br />

to the expenditure function for fixed quantities and can be used to examine the<br />

welfare effects of quantity changes. To recover (non-normalized) monetary mea<strong>sur</strong>es,<br />

the welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>es must be multiplied by income. Thus, C and E are defined by:<br />

� � ,<br />

0<br />

,<br />

0 � � ,<br />

1<br />

,<br />

0 ��<br />

� � ,<br />

0<br />

,<br />

1� � ,<br />

1<br />

,<br />

1��<br />

C � y d x q u � d x q u<br />

[11a]<br />

E � y d x q u � d x q u<br />

[11b]<br />

q<br />

q<br />

0<br />

1<br />

Using Shepard‟s Lemma, the latter reduces to:<br />

0<br />

� , , � , , ��<br />

C � � a x q yd x q u dq<br />

[12a]<br />

q<br />

q<br />

0<br />

1<br />

1<br />

� , , � , , ��<br />

E � � a x q yd x q u dq<br />

[12b]<br />

curves from<br />

C and E are mea<strong>sur</strong>ed by the area under the compensated inverse demand<br />

0<br />

q to<br />

1<br />

q with the old and new utility levels, respectively.<br />

Let us now compare those areas in order to see whether positive and negative<br />

changes induce the same consumer behavior.


1.3. The substitution effect<br />

When goods are available in a market at no cost, there is a regular<br />

intermediate monetary exchange of commodities, which involves a linear indifference<br />

curve for the x ‟s and q . If there is disparity, it depends on the constant price<br />

flexibility of income, i.e. the elasticity of the marginal valuation of q with respect to<br />

the x ‟s (or y that buys the x ‟s):<br />

1<br />

�C<br />

q<br />

0 0<br />

C � , , � ˆ<br />

y � �vypq<br />

y � 0 u � p, q, u �dq<br />

�y � [13a]<br />

q<br />

1<br />

�E<br />

q<br />

1 1<br />

E � , , � ˆ<br />

y � �vypq<br />

y � 0 u � p, q, u �dq<br />

�y � [13b]<br />

q<br />

2<br />

� � and if equ � e q u�<br />

If C E 0<br />

y y<br />

� � � � � 0 , E� C.<br />

Indeed, the second cross-<br />

partial derivative e qu reflects the substitution effect. A null substitution effect<br />

involves linear indifference curves and null opportunity loss. Due to perfect<br />

substitutability, agents are indifferent to the variations of the public good, because<br />

they can always adjust the level of the x ‟s to maintain their utility constant. One<br />

interpretation could be that they feel unconcerned by the changes in the level of the<br />

public good. Another interpretation could be that they are unconditionally ready to<br />

substitute the public good with some private good. The usual proposition results from<br />

the above.<br />

Proposition 1.1.: When the welfare change is induced by q , due to imperfect<br />

substitutability or low elasticity of substitution between q and the x ‟s, there is values<br />

disparity. It can be infinite in the limit.<br />

Proof: In the appendix.<br />

38


The substitution effect reflects the convex curvature of the indifference curve<br />

between q and the x ‟s and the convexity of the expenditure function in q . Ebert<br />

(1993) claims that quasi-concavity of the indirect utility function v�� � , jointly with<br />

the normality of the public good, is necessary and sufficient to obtain WTA superior<br />

to WTP. If the combinations of �xq , � lead to the same level of utility, it is in the<br />

interest of an agent to have a convex mixture of goods, for it never decreases utility.<br />

Fig. 1.1. illustrates a diminishing marginal rate of substitution between the<br />

x ‟s and q with quasi-concave utility functions. As q rises from<br />

increases from<br />

0<br />

u to<br />

39<br />

0<br />

q to<br />

1<br />

q , utility<br />

1<br />

u . Displacements of the indifference curves reflect unitary<br />

income elasticity. As can be seen, WTA � WTP . The trade-off between<br />

environmental quality and the private good turns out to be less and less attractive: the<br />

marginal utility from environmental quality upgrading is diminishing. Vice versa, it<br />

means that the marginal loss of environmental quality is increasing. In any case, the<br />

lower the elasticity of substitution between q and the x ‟s – or to be more accurate,<br />

between q and the x ‟s that y buys – the broader the disparity.<br />

WTA<br />

y<br />

WTP<br />

y<br />

0<br />

q 0<br />

Fig. 1.1. A change in q and imperfect substitution with the x ’s<br />

q 1<br />

� , , �<br />

1 1<br />

u � v p q y<br />

� , , �<br />

0 0<br />

u � v p q y<br />

q


Regarding the distance function, in presence of a normal good, the inverse<br />

0<br />

compensated demand curve � , , �<br />

1<br />

curve � , , �<br />

a x q u lies below the inverse compensated demand<br />

a x q u for the reason that scale effects depend on the elasticity of<br />

substitution between q and the x ‟s. In the presence of two goods, Park (1997) finds<br />

that the Hicks elasticity of substitution equals the Allen-Uzawa elasticity of<br />

substitution. The difference between WTP and WTA thus arises whenever<br />

substitutability is imperfect.<br />

What happens to the agent‟s behavior if we now distinguish foregone gains<br />

from real losses?<br />

1.4. Imperfect substitutability and the endowment effect<br />

Hanemann (1991) points out in his footnote 25 that Kahneman and Tversky‟s<br />

(1979) loss aversion, observed from some reference point, differs from the standard<br />

disparity. Indeed, in the Hicksian framework, preferences over consumption bundles<br />

are independent of initial endowments. In reference to the gain and loss perspective,<br />

Thaler (1980) proposed the term endowment effect. When an agent is endowed with a<br />

good, her reference point changes, she shifts her position on the map, and the shape of<br />

her indifference curve is altered.<br />

If we adapt the standard framework to the loss aversion idea, a gain or a loss<br />

in q can be written q � q � � and q � q � � , with 0 � � . Assume agent‟s utility is<br />

1 0<br />

�<br />

1 0<br />

�<br />

affected by variations of the environmental quality level q . In this case, her utility<br />

� , , �<br />

0 0<br />

u v p q y<br />

� , which now involves a single indifference curve, changes either to<br />

u � in a case of a gain or to u � in case of a loss:<br />

0 � , , �<br />

�<br />

u � v p q � � y<br />

[14a]<br />

0 � , , �<br />

�<br />

u � v p q � � y<br />

[14b]<br />

40


Bateman et al. (1997) define two additional mea<strong>sur</strong>es, identified with some<br />

reference point. Regarding the first mea<strong>sur</strong>e, the question is what additional amount<br />

of private consumption is as preferable as an increase in the environmental quality.<br />

This is the equivalent gain, equal to WTA. Regarding the second mea<strong>sur</strong>e, the<br />

question is what loss of private consumption would be just as preferable as a decrease<br />

in the environmental quality. This is the equivalent loss, equal to WTP.<br />

When the agent is endowed, fixing a gain and a loss in [3a] and [3b] or [4a]<br />

and [4b] gives the following relationships: C � or compensating gain is the maximum<br />

amount she would pay to secure the gain; E � or equivalent gain is the minimum<br />

amount she would accept to sacrifice the gain; E �<br />

� or equivalent loss is the<br />

maximum amount she would give up to avoid the loss; C �<br />

� or compensating loss is<br />

the minimum amount she would accept to tolerate the loss. The summary is<br />

recapitulated in Table 1.2.<br />

Table 1.2. Welfare indices and context-dependence<br />

1 0<br />

1 0<br />

loss ( q � q � � ) gain ( q � q � � )<br />

�<br />

� �<br />

�C�WTA�� 0�<br />

C WTP<br />

41<br />

�<br />

� �� 0�<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

�E�WTP�� 0�<br />

E WTA<br />

� �� 0�<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

Unlike the standard disparity alias �WTA � WTP � or �WTA WTP �<br />

� , where<br />

changes go in the same direction, a gain and loss disparity is computed differently,<br />

simply because we observe changes that depart in opposite directions from some<br />

reference point. Here, we subtract WTA to tolerate the loss and WTP to guarantee the<br />

� �<br />

gain or �WTA WTP �<br />

� . From [3a] and [3b], it follows:<br />

1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0<br />

� , �, � � , , � � , , � � , �,<br />

�<br />

� �<br />

�C �C � �e p q u � e p q u � � �e p q u �e<br />

p q u �<br />

� � � � [15a]


Since the utility function u �x, q�<br />

is quasi-concave in � q�<br />

0<br />

the expenditure function � , , �<br />

42<br />

x, , when q increases<br />

e p q u decreases, i.e. is convex in q , as less income is<br />

necessary to attain the fixed utility level. The second reaction is that the indirect<br />

utility function v �p, q,<br />

y�<br />

is quasi-concave in � y�<br />

q, , which means that the cross-<br />

2 2<br />

partial derivative only implies the substitution effect eqq � e q �<br />

� � � . As a matter of<br />

fact, the income effect – the spacing of the indifference curves – does not count, for<br />

gain and loss perspective involves a single indifference curve<br />

positive and negative change, thus:<br />

0<br />

u observed from some<br />

� �<br />

WTA � WTP � 0<br />

[15b]<br />

Proposition 1.2.: Imperfect substitutability between q and the x ‟s in the indirect<br />

utility function causes disparity either between WTP and WTA or between gain and<br />

loss, independently from the reference.<br />

Proof: In the appendix.<br />

Fig. 1.2. illustrates the four mea<strong>sur</strong>es, observed from some reference<br />

0<br />

coordinates �q , y �.<br />

Grey curves depict the same pre-endowed utility<br />

0<br />

u observed<br />

from two reference points. Through the incursion of context-dependence, the utility<br />

changes from<br />

0<br />

u to either u � (a gain in utility) or u � (a loss in utility). The reference<br />

point for WTA � and WTP � is G. Viewed from G, the distance from<br />

0<br />

q to<br />

q � q � �<br />

1 0<br />

�<br />

is a gain in level of the environmental quality. For WTA � and WTP � the reference<br />

point is L. Viewed from L, the distance from<br />

0<br />

q to<br />

q � q � � is perceived as a loss<br />

1 0<br />

�<br />

in level of the environmental quality. The endowment effect induces the pivoting of<br />

the indifference curve from the reference point, which illustrates the discontinuity in<br />

the slope from<br />

0<br />

u to u � or u � . The steeper the indifference curve, the less the<br />

substitutability between q and the x ‟s that y buys.


The difference between WTA � and WTA � , which is essential to distinguish<br />

the standard disparity from the gain and loss disparity, lies in the way the loss is<br />

perceived. In the first case, the agent is asked to state her value to give up a gain from<br />

an increase in the environmental quality. This is an opportunity loss. This cannot be a<br />

right. In the second case, the agent is asked to state her value to suffer a loss from a<br />

decrease in environmental quality. This is a net loss and it differs from the former.<br />

.<br />

Fig. 1.2. Reference-dependent preferences<br />

The difference is due to imperfect substitutability, for agents take more account of the<br />

goods they can not regain. When agents are asked to value their losses in monetary<br />

terms, the behavioral effect of loss aversion arises and they shift their indifference<br />

curves. They know they have the right to be compensated for the loss and claim this<br />

right in form of high WTA � statements.<br />

� � � �<br />

Transitivity implies that whenever WTA > WTA and WTA > WTP ,<br />

� �<br />

WTA > WTP .<br />

WTA –<br />

WTA +<br />

y<br />

WTP +<br />

WTP –<br />

y<br />

0<br />

G<br />

1<br />

q� 43<br />

1<br />

q� L<br />

q


1.5. Imperfect substitutability and loss aversion<br />

In their 1991 article, Tversky and Kahneman propose the behavioral<br />

reference-dependent theory as an alternative to the Hicksian theory of preferences.<br />

Outcomes are now valued using a value (utility) function where agents have<br />

preferences over goods relative to some reference level � x, q�<br />

44<br />

r r seen as the status quo.<br />

According to them, (i) all is perceived as a gain or a loss; (ii) losses are weighted<br />

more heavily than gains or agents are loss averse; and (iii) the marginal value of gains<br />

or losses exhibits diminishing sensitivity. They assume that preferences are transitive,<br />

continuous and nondecreasing (but not convex).<br />

r r stands for the reference points for consuming � q�<br />

If � x, q�<br />

function changes to u u� x, q, rx, rq�<br />

x, , the utility<br />

� ; the demand functions take the form of<br />

i<br />

i<br />

� � , , , , � and xi h � p, q, u, rx , rq<br />

�<br />

x h p q y r r<br />

i x q<br />

� ; the indirect utility is now<br />

v� p, q, y, rx, r q�<br />

just as is the expenditure function � , , , x, q�<br />

e p q y r r . These new<br />

functions are discontinuous at the reference point (Putler 1992). Fig. 1.3. shows a<br />

typical loss aversion curve observed within the context of welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>ement.<br />

WTA –<br />

y�rx WTP +<br />

y<br />

0<br />

rq �<br />

q�rq rq �<br />

Fig. 1.3. Loss aversion in welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>es<br />

q


The additive formulation of the constant loss aversion model used by Tversky<br />

and Kahneman gives the following indirect utility function:<br />

q y<br />

� , � R �i�q��i�y� u � v q y � � q � r � y � r �<br />

� � [16]<br />

with R' � 0.<br />

Parameters<br />

q<br />

� i and<br />

y<br />

� i , for 1,2<br />

i � and � � 1,<br />

are defined as coefficients<br />

of loss aversion for dimensions r q and r y . They magnify the disutility of losing some<br />

environmental quality. When the agent perceives a change as a gain, this coefficient<br />

amounts to 1 1 � � , which means that the agent has neoclassical utility. When she<br />

perceives a loss, this coefficient amounts to 2 >1<br />

y y<br />

2 1<br />

� �<br />

� > � � 1 .<br />

45<br />

i<br />

q q<br />

� . We can see that � > � �� 1�and<br />

2 1<br />

Definition 1.2.: The change from the reference level r q to either a gain rq � or a loss<br />

rq � , while ry� y,<br />

gives the following:<br />

q q y y<br />

�� �i � �1 if q � rq � 0 and �i � �1<br />

if y � ry<br />

� 0<br />

� q q y y<br />

�� �i � �2 if q � rq < 0 and �i � �2<br />

if y � ry<br />

� 0<br />

In terms of coefficients of loss aversion, the welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>es matrix becomes<br />

what is shown in Table 1.3.<br />

Table 1.3. Welfare indices in a gain and loss perspective<br />

� �<br />

loss ( rq � rq<br />

� � ) gain ( rq � rq<br />

� � )<br />

� � � � 1 2 WTP<br />

q y<br />

� � � �<br />

2 1 WTA<br />

q y<br />

�<br />

� � � � 1 1 WTA<br />

q y<br />

� � � �<br />

2 2 WTP<br />

q y<br />

�<br />

�<br />


q y<br />

Since �1 �1<br />

1<br />

� � , < 2<br />

q<br />

y �<br />

�<br />

� or<br />

�<br />

R �� � , i.e. y � e�q, u�<br />

is the inverse of u v�q, y�<br />

2<br />

+<br />

WTP < WTA � . If we invert the function<br />

46<br />

� with �R � y<br />

�<br />

differentiate it with respect to u , the following disparity arises:<br />

q<br />

�u� �u� i �q rq�<br />

�� ' if � ��� �<br />

eu �q, u� � ��<br />

'�u<br />

�<br />

� if � < �<br />

y<br />

� �2<br />

�1<br />

where � � � R � �<br />

q �u� i �q � rq�<br />

� � � and � '� 0.<br />

y� � r , and<br />

i y<br />

[17]<br />

The indirect utility function is quasi-concave because of the monotone<br />

transformation � �<br />

q<br />

R � in [16]. Moreover, i �q rq�<br />

� � is a concave function of q , which<br />

illustrates the gain and loss disparity with decreasing sensitivity to losses. Since<br />

2 >1<br />

y<br />

� , when q increases u<br />

e decreases, which implies the negativity of the derivative<br />

e qu from changes in q . As a result, we get back to the standard disparity between<br />

WTP and WTA.<br />

Recall that the curvature of the indifference curves shows diminishing<br />

marginal utility between the consumption bundles, and thus the standard WTA-WTP<br />

disparity. Furthermore, it generates disparity between gain and loss because of the<br />

imperfect substitution in the indirect utility function between y and some function of<br />

the environmental quality q . Through the discontinuity in the slope at the reference<br />

point, loss aversion theory implies convex indifference curves. On that subject,<br />

Hanemann (1999) argues that the assumption of quasi-concave utility function<br />

suffices to observe convexity. Quasi-concavity with inversely proportional disparity<br />

to the substitution effect can explain the disparity between gain and loss. The<br />

endowment effect within loss aversion can be explained through less than perfect<br />

substitutability.


The behavioral theory of loss aversion also works with distance effects. In<br />

terms of the distance function, it is a matter of distance between coordinates of some<br />

level of y or q and the agent‟s reference point. In this case, the function becomes<br />

� , , , x, q�<br />

d x q u r r . Adding coefficients of loss aversion into the distance function yields<br />

now a weighted distance function of the form:<br />

p p<br />

� �<br />

q y<br />

� , , � R �i�q��i�y� d � d x q u � q � r � y � r<br />

�� ��<br />

[18]<br />

where p � 1 denotes the metric. When p � 1,<br />

the distance is mea<strong>sur</strong>ed as the sum of<br />

weighted absolute differences. We then fall on [16]. The distance function recovers<br />

from the expenditure function. Therefore, imperfect substitutability can once again<br />

explain the gain and loss disparity.<br />

1.6. Imperfect substitutability and boundedness<br />

Randall and Stoll (1980) demonstrate that the disparity between WTP and<br />

WTA is bounded by the ratio between the price flexibility of income and endowment.<br />

Cook and Graham (1977) assert that the compensation demanded for irreplaceable<br />

commodities, which we can assume to be imperfectly substitutable, depends on the<br />

initial level of wealth or endowment. As the probability of loss p � 1,<br />

WTA,<br />

dependent on the income that buys the x‟s, tends to infinity as the indifference curve<br />

is asymptotic to the vertical line at p � 1.<br />

This is what Amiran and Hagen (2003) also<br />

suggest in a slightly different manner: in presence of asymptomatically bounded<br />

utility functions, there exists an initial level of wealth sufficiently high to produce an<br />

infinite WTA – . Nevertheless, the substitution effect still plays a capital role, for it<br />

induces frictional trade-off between public and private goods. In terms of elasticity,<br />

the authors show that the income elasticity of the inverse compensated demand is<br />

bounded above and below by positive values independent of the amounts of public<br />

goods.<br />

47


In case of reference-dependent preferences, we believe that imperfect<br />

substitutability accentuates the pivoting of the indifference curve, which in turn can<br />

produce infinite compensation demanded. We replace the nonsatiation assumption<br />

from Amiran and Hagen (2003) by the assumption that for each level of income y, the<br />

status quo q r is strictly preferred to some net loss of the public good rq �� with<br />

� >0<br />

or that u� rq , y� < u� rq, y�<br />

�� with r �� < r . A double outcome arises. The<br />

48<br />

q q<br />

first outcome lies in the convex curvature of the indifference curve. In point of fact,<br />

imperfect substitutability induces a steeper slope for higher opportunity losses (see<br />

Fig. 1.4.: grey segment and arrow 1). The second outcome results from the<br />

enlargement of the substitution effect due to aversion of net losses, yielding<br />

clockwise rotation and, accordingly, a steeper slope of the initial indifference curve<br />

(see Fig. 1.4.: black segment and arrow 2).<br />

Fig. 1.4. Unboundedness of the compensation demanded<br />

Beyond some level of loss of the public good �� 0 in view of their reference point,<br />

i.e.<br />

0<br />

q rq<br />

WTA –<br />

WTA +<br />

� � � , standard agents ask for an infinite monetary compensation. Formally,<br />

this yields a level of monetary compensation s – analogue to WTA – strictly inferior<br />

to the disutility of the loss:<br />

y<br />

y<br />

0<br />

2<br />

q 0<br />

1<br />

rq<br />

q


0<br />

� q, �> � q � > � , �<br />

u r y z r � � � s u q y<br />

[19]<br />

Proposition 1.3.: In case of reference-dependent preferences and imperfect<br />

substitutability between q and the x‟s that y buys, large net losses of the public good<br />

can be infinitely uncompensated.<br />

Proof: In the appendix.<br />

Hanemann (1999) points out that the wealth effect in Cook and Graham is not<br />

the income effect typically considered in consumer demand theory. While being true,<br />

let us recall that the income effect does not count within context-dependence. We<br />

therefore explain the infinite limit of WTA – by the pivoting of the indifference curve<br />

from the reference (endowed) level of the public good. Again, this is a net loss<br />

perception magnifying the substitution effect. Contrary to Cook and Graham who find<br />

infinite WTA – as the probability of losses moves towards one, our indifference curve<br />

is asymptotic to the vertical line at<br />

severe and approach<br />

0<br />

q , which shows infinite WTA – when losses are<br />

0<br />

q . Unlike the previous models – which unquestionably<br />

consider substitutability as the mainspring for infinite monetary compensation – our<br />

design neither depends on the initial level of wealth or the initial endowment in<br />

market goods nor on the boundedness of the utility function. It rather depends on the<br />

severity of loss of the public goods combined with their unfeasibility to be perfectly<br />

substitutable.<br />

In the behavioral loss aversion model, when an agent stands at � q, x�<br />

49<br />

r r , that is,<br />

at the kink point, q and y are perfect substitutes, for she is equidistant to both<br />

references points and indifferent between the level of environmental quality and her<br />

income. Except these coordinates, any other point along the curve exhibits imperfect<br />

substitutability. As can be noticed in terms of distance minimization, above the kink<br />

point she substitutes the loss of the environmental quality with monetary<br />

compensation. Below is the opposite. Because of loss aversion, as r � � � r


have �r r � v r 0<br />

� � � � � � . When rq �� goes farther from r q , additional decreases<br />

q q q<br />

in q lead to smaller changes in utility, which implies<br />

50<br />

2 2<br />

� v �q � 0 . In other terms,<br />

diminishing sensitivity implies a lower substitution effect in both gains and losses.<br />

Conversely to the standard model, the marginal disutility from environmental quality<br />

downgrading is decreasing as the agent moves from the reference point, implying a<br />

bounded value for compensation 8 .<br />

Proposition 1.4.: Inside the behavioral theory of loss aversion, given constant<br />

diminishing sensitivity towards losses, the substitution effect is bounded.<br />

Proof: In the appendix.<br />

Hence, there is a difference between the Hicksian standard paradigm and loss<br />

aversion in the representation of context-dependence. If we superpose the<br />

indifference curves illustrating the willingness-to-accept to tolerate a loss, their<br />

respective curvatures reveal two types of behavior on the subject of losses. The grey<br />

segment represents the standard theory context-dependence. The black segment<br />

stands for the behavioral model of loss aversion (see Fig. 1.5.).<br />

Inside the standard model, agents show increasing marginal disutility as<br />

rq �� tends towards<br />

0<br />

q . Inside the behavioral model, agents exhibit high loss<br />

aversion with small changes as regards their reference point, but they turn out to be<br />

less and less sensitive as<br />

r q<br />

0<br />

q � � � . Diminishing sensitivity of the marginal value of<br />

losses clarifies this phenomenon. The farther something moves from a reference<br />

point, the less additional changes should matter, which in our case <strong>sur</strong>prisingly means<br />

increasing substitutability. This counter effect appears because agents are myopic,<br />

which makes them feel unconcerned by changes out of their visual field. As a<br />

consequence, they end up asking for a bounded amount of compensation, no matter<br />

the additional degradation of the environment.<br />

8 The shape of the losses is represented in a positive space because we deal with positive values of<br />

welfare indices.


WTA –<br />

y�rx Fig. 1.5. Comparison between reference-dependent indifference curves<br />

The significance of it is non-negligible. In case of irreversible damages to the<br />

environment or high losses of public goods with regards to their initial level –<br />

commodities that we know to be imperfectly substitutable –, standard agents which<br />

turn out to be far-sighted will ask for an infinite monetary compensation, whereas loss<br />

aversion agents will ask for a bounded amount of compensation, and neither can<br />

adapt their reference points. While economists have long considered loss aversion to<br />

degenerate agents‟ rational preferences, we see that past some level of changes in q, it<br />

limits their proclivity towards abnormal valuation.<br />

1.7. Concluding remarks<br />

Applied to market valuation of the public goods, this chapter dealt with<br />

imperfect substitutability in both standard welfare and reference-dependence theories.<br />

Imperfect substitutability in the indirect utility function can provoke disparity either<br />

between WTA and WTP or between gain and loss. Further, the same quasi-concave<br />

utility functions can explain the endowment effect.<br />

y<br />

0<br />

0<br />

q<br />

51<br />

rq<br />

q


What is the point of finding that imperfect substitutability plays a role in both<br />

the WTA and WTP disparity and the gain and loss disparity? According to the above,<br />

it basically means that agents‟ unwillingness to substitute an environmental good or<br />

service increases with its defective substitutability. When agents substitute a public<br />

good for a private good, an opportunity loss appears and induces the standard<br />

disparity. In case the scenario to price is a loss instead of a foregone gain, loss<br />

aversion transforms the opportunity loss in a net loss, which enlarges the initial<br />

disparity, for people heavily value things they cannot regain. Experimental findings<br />

from Boyce et al. (1992) and Chapman (1998) support this conclusion. At last, the<br />

substitution effect observed from some reference point has a bound inside the<br />

behavioral model of loss aversion. This could be tested in a laboratory. Whether<br />

agents should have infinite values for severe or irreversible losses might be the topic<br />

that decides which model better values environmental preferences.<br />

Yet, these common findings must be toned down. Valuing environmental<br />

goods or services calls for an understanding of the public and private benefits derived<br />

from the public good. This is partially en<strong>sur</strong>ed, as environmental commodities are<br />

unfamiliar to agents and their benefits for utility obscure in most cases. The risk of<br />

having naïve valuations is existent. Only an interactive market-like setting permits to<br />

<strong>sur</strong>mount these limits, and hypothetical markets remain devoid of market interactions.<br />

Experimental markets are thus essential in the contingent valuation. In<br />

experimentation, the early disparity between welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>es is redundant,<br />

supporting either of the two effects. But their confrontation occults the market<br />

efficiency which rules the economic valuation. Indeed, markets bound anomalies by<br />

means of ad hoc incentives, for they aid agents to correct their untruthful or naïve<br />

valuations. The next step consists in identifying, by probing into auction mechanisms,<br />

why some of them reduce the disparity better than others. As well, studying agents‟<br />

context-dependent behavior faced with irreversible environmental damages and<br />

ambiguity – when they can adapt their reference points – is a matter of future<br />

research.<br />

1.8. References<br />

52


Amiran, E. and Hagen, D. (2003), “Willingness To Pay and Willingness To Accept:<br />

How Much Can They Differ? Comment”, American Economic Review, 93: 458–<br />

463.<br />

Bateman, I., Munro, A., Rhodes, B., Starmer, C. and Sugden, R. (1997), “A Test of<br />

the Theory of Reference-Dependent Preferences”, Quarterly Journal of<br />

Economics, 112: 479–505.<br />

Boyce, R., Brown, T., McClelland, G., Peterson, G. and Schulze, W. (1992), “An<br />

Experimental Examination of Intrinsic Values as a Source of the WTA-WTP<br />

Disparity”, American Economic Review, 82: 1366–1373.<br />

Blackorby, C., Primont, D. and Russell, R. (1978), “Duality, Separability and<br />

Functional Structure”, Theory and Economic Applications, North-Holland, New<br />

York.<br />

Brookshire, D. and Coursey, D. (1987), “Mea<strong>sur</strong>ing the Value of a Public Good: An<br />

Empirical Comparison of Elicitation Procedures”, American Economic Review,<br />

77: 554–556.<br />

Cook, P. and Graham, D. (1977), “The Demand for In<strong>sur</strong>ance and Protection: The<br />

Case of Irreplaceable Commodities”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 91: 143–<br />

156.<br />

Chapman, G. (1998), “Similarity and Reluctance to Trade”, Journal of Behavioral<br />

Decision Making, 11: 47–58.<br />

Deaton, A. (1979), “The Distance Function in Consumer Behavior with Applications<br />

to Index Numbers and Optimal Taxation”, Review of Economic Studies, 46: 391–<br />

405.<br />

Ebert, U. (1984), “Exact Welfare Mea<strong>sur</strong>es and Economic Index Numbers”, Journal<br />

of Economics, 44: 27–38.<br />

Ebert, U. (1993), “A Note on Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept”, Social<br />

Choice and Welfare, 10: 363–370.<br />

Hanemann, W. (1991), “Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept: How Much<br />

Can they Differ?”, American Economic Review, 81: 635–647.<br />

Hanemann, W. (1999), “The Economic Theory of WTP and WTA”, In Valuing the<br />

Environment Preferences: Theory and Practice of the Contingent Valuation<br />

Method in the US, EC and Developing Countries, edited by Ian Bateman and Ken<br />

Willis, Oxford: Oxford University Press.<br />

53


Hicks, J. (1943), “The Four Consumer‟s Surpluses”, Review of Economic Studies, 11:<br />

31–41.<br />

Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979), “Loss aversion in Riskless Choice: A<br />

Reference-Dependent Model”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106: 1039–1061.<br />

Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. and Thaler, R. (1991) “Anomalies: The endowment effect,<br />

Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5: 193–<br />

206.<br />

Knetsch, J. and Sinden, J. (1984), “Willingness to Pay and Compensation Demanded:<br />

Experimental Evidence of an Unexpected Disparity in Mea<strong>sur</strong>es of Value”,<br />

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99: 507–521.<br />

Mäler, K. (1974), Environmental Economics: A Theoretical Inquiry, John Hopkins<br />

University Press, Baltimore.<br />

Morrisson, G. (1997) “Resoving Differences in Willingness to Pay and Willingness to<br />

Accept: Comment”, American Economic Review, 87: 236–240.<br />

Park, H. (1997), “Randall and Stoll‟s Bound in an Inverse Demand System”,<br />

Economics Letters, 56: 281–286.<br />

Putler, D. (1992), “Incorporating Reference Point Effects into a Theory of Consumer<br />

Choice”, Marketing Science, 11: 287–309.<br />

Randall, A. and Stoll, J. (1980), “Consumer‟s Surplus in Commodity Space”,<br />

American Economic Review, 70: 449–455.<br />

Sinclair-Desgagné, B. (2005), “Calcul économique et développement durable”, Esprit<br />

critique, Vol. 07–N.01, available at http://www.espritcritique.fr.<br />

Thaler, R. (1980), “Toward a positive theory of consumer choice”, Journal of<br />

Economic Behavior and Organization, 1: 39–60.<br />

Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1991), “Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A<br />

Reference-Dependent Model”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106: 1039–1061.<br />

54


1.9. Appendix<br />

Proof of Proposition 1.1.<br />

The demonstration is as follows. After Randall and Stoll (1980), WTP and WTA for<br />

changes in public goods should not differ with small income effects. They bound<br />

�E� C�via<br />

the income elasticity of demand (or income elasticity of willingness-to-<br />

pay) of the public good. For example, when the price of a certain good one changes,<br />

the disparity amounts:<br />

�<br />

1<br />

1<br />

1 0<br />

� , , � � , , �<br />

p<br />

� �<br />

p � p p �<br />

E �C � e p q u � e p q u dp<br />

or<br />

0 1 1<br />

1<br />

1<br />

1 1<br />

� � � � � �<br />

1<br />

� � � �<br />

E �C � e p, q, u � g p, q, u � g p, q, e p, q, u � e p, q, u<br />

p u u y u<br />

The income effect associated with good one – the second cross-partial derivative<br />

2<br />

epu e p1 u<br />

1<br />

� � � � – establishes the size of the disparity, the limit being the<br />

individual‟s income. The bounding method carries over to welfare mea<strong>sur</strong>es of the<br />

quantity changes. The analogous result for a change in q gives the cross-partial<br />

derivative<br />

market goods:<br />

�<br />

q<br />

2<br />

equ e q u<br />

1<br />

� � � � , i.e. the substitutability of the nonmarket good by means of<br />

0 1<br />

� , , � � , , � � , , �<br />

E �C � �e 0<br />

q<br />

q p q u eq p q u �<br />

�<br />

�<br />

�<br />

dq � �equ<br />

p q u<br />

For a change in the public good‟s level, Hanemann (1991) demonstrates that the<br />

second cross-partial derivative e qu reflects the substitution effect. Indeed, from [8]<br />

and the differentiation of the compensating demand function for q , we hold the<br />

derivative involved in changes in q that impact on u :<br />

55


� , , �<br />

e p q u<br />

g � p, �, e p, �, u �� e� p, �,<br />

u�<br />

� , �, , � , � y � , �,<br />

�<br />

� p, q, u�<br />

q<br />

y � �<br />

� �<br />

2<br />

� e ��<br />

ˆ ˆ<br />

� � �<br />

�q�u �u gˆ p eˆ p u �gˆpu�q qu q<br />

�<br />

q<br />

By the Hicks decomposition, the precedent becomes:<br />

� � �<br />

� � �<br />

q<br />

gˆ u p, , u<br />

equ � p, q, u�<br />

= q<br />

gˆ p, , u<br />

�<br />

This difference between WTP and WTA depends on the price flexibility of income<br />

and thus the ratio of the income elasticity of the ordinary demand function for q to<br />

the elasticity of substitution between q and the x ‟s 9 . The numerator represents the<br />

income effect of q in the hypothetical market, established from the derivative of the<br />

demand function with respect to income. The denominator is the own-price derivative<br />

of the compensated demand function for q and gives the aggregate Allen-Uzawa<br />

elasticity of substitution between q and the private goods weighted by the budget<br />

share of the same private goods.<br />

Changes in prices and changes in q both vary with income and depend on a cross-<br />

partial derivative of the expenditure function. And when e qu


A necessary and sufficient condition for the disparity between gain and loss to occur,<br />

i.e. WTA > WTP<br />

� �<br />

, is that v �p, q,<br />

y�<br />

is quasi-concave in � y�<br />

57<br />

0<br />

p, or that � , , �<br />

e p q u is a<br />

convex function of q . In this case, the second partial derivative e qq must be strictly<br />

positive. Let us look at the expenditure function.<br />

The disparity arises because of the convexity of the initial indifference curve<br />

follows from [3a] and [3b] that:<br />

1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0<br />

� , �, � � , , � � , , � � , �,<br />

�<br />

� �<br />

�C �C � �e p q u � e p q u � � �e p q u �e<br />

p q u �<br />

� � � �<br />

Which gives:<br />

1 0 1 0 0 0<br />

0 � e� p, q�, u � � e� p, q�, u � � 2 e� p, q , u �<br />

� 0 0 � � � 0<br />

� �<br />

0 � � � 0<br />

� �<br />

0 �<br />

2 e p, q , u e p, q , u e p, q , u<br />

� �<br />

1<br />

e p q u e p q u e p q u<br />

2<br />

0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

� , , � � � , � �, � � � , � �,<br />

�<br />

0 0<br />

In parallel, � , , �<br />

e p q u can be rewritten as:<br />

�� � �� � � � ���<br />

� 1 0 0 0 �<br />

e�p, q q , u �<br />

� 2<br />

�<br />

Substituting the precedent into the general inequality gives:<br />

0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

�� � �� � � � ��� � � � � � � � � � �<br />

� �<br />

� 1 � 1<br />

e� p, q q , u � e p, q , u e p, q , u<br />

� 2 � 2<br />

� 1 1 � 1 1<br />

e� p, q �1 � q , u � e p, q , u �1 �e<br />

p, q , u<br />

� 2 � 2 � �<br />

2 � 2 �<br />

0 � � 0 0 0 0 � � 0 0<br />

� � �� � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � �<br />

0<br />

u . It


From which directly follows the convexity of the expenditure function of q . The<br />

expenditure function being convex, we have e qq >0.<br />

There is a disparity between gain and loss. �<br />

Proof of Proposition 1.3.<br />

For<br />

0<br />

q rq rq<br />

� � � � with >0<br />

�<br />

us set z �q� �sup y u �q, y� �u�rq,<br />

y�<br />

�<br />

0<br />

� , we have u0 � u �rq , y�<br />

and u �q, y� u �q , y�<br />

58<br />

� . Let<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

for a level of monetary compensation such<br />

that the utility remains constant. For each 0<br />

q � we have z �q� u� q, y�<br />

� . The<br />

supremum z�q � is increasing in q. This says that for each level of income y and for<br />

0<br />

q � we have u� rq, y� u� rq , y�<br />

r q<br />

the net loss of the public good � .<br />

Let us set � � � �=<br />

q q<br />

� � � because the status quo is always preferred to<br />

z r � z r � � s where s > � is the compensation analogue to WTA.<br />

With z�r q � being the supremum for u �rq , y � and � q �<br />

z r �� being the supremum for<br />

0 � q �� , � is there y that gives u� q , y� > z �rq �� � or � q, �> � q �<br />

u r y<br />

We know that<br />

0<br />

q rq rq<br />

u r y z r � � � s ?<br />

0<br />

� � � � so for all y we have z �q � z �rq �<br />

0 � � � � q � � � . By definition we know that z �rq � s z �rq� z q z r<br />

0<br />

0 0 � � � � � q � holds. Moreover, z �q � u� q , y�<br />

z q s z r<br />

0 0 0 � � � � � , � or z �rq � s u �q , y�<br />

z q s u q y<br />

As<br />

� � � � .<br />

0<br />

0<br />

q � we have z �rq � z �q �<br />

r q<br />

0<br />

� q,<br />

� � �<br />

u r y � z q � s .<br />

� and<br />

� � � � such that<br />

� because z �q� u� q, y�<br />

0<br />

� � � or z �rq � s z �q �<br />

� thus<br />

� � hence


0<br />

From the above we see that u� q , y� < z �rq � s u �rq, y�<br />

Proof of Proposition 1.4.<br />

59<br />

� � � � �<br />

Let us now prove that WTA is bounded within the behavioral model of loss aversion.<br />

One way comes directly from the construction of the model: according to diminishing<br />

sensitivity, smaller changes in � should be accompanied by smaller increases in y ,<br />

the utility being constant, thus<br />

2 2<br />

� u �q � 0.<br />

��rq � ��� �0, r � q�<br />

and some value function *<br />

v C�R�� � on �0, r � q � which is concave<br />

and nonincreasing, one has: v�r q � v'� rq ��rq rq � v�r q �<br />

� � � � � � � . The right-hand<br />

expression of the weak inequality is the tangent of v at r q . It gives<br />

� q � '�<br />

q �� q � � q �<br />

v r � � � v r �r � v r when rq � � � 0 which is independent of rq ��.<br />

Hence, the losses‟ side of the value function is bounded. �


61<br />

Chapter 2<br />

Private Valuation of a Public Good<br />

in Three Auction Mechanisms<br />

Abstract<br />

We evaluate the impact of three auction mechanisms – the Becker–DeGroot–<br />

Marschak (BDM) mechanism, the second-price auction, and the random nth-price<br />

auction – in the mea<strong>sur</strong>ement of private willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept<br />

for a pure public good. Our results show that the endowment effect can be eliminated<br />

with repetitions of the BDM mechanism. Yet, on a logarithmic scale, the random nthprice<br />

auction yields the highest speed of convergence to welfare indices‟ equality.<br />

Overall, we observe that subjects value public goods in reference to their private<br />

subjective benefit derived from the public good funding.<br />

Keywords: contingent valuation, WTP-WTA gap, auctions, public good private<br />

provision<br />

JEL classification: C91, D44, Q53


2.1. Introduction<br />

62<br />

"I have never known much good done<br />

by those who affected to trade for the<br />

public good." Adam Smith<br />

The experimental private provision of public goods based on the contingent<br />

valuation method is often used to value public goods such as health, safety or<br />

environment. Estimating preferences for public goods is however laborious, for<br />

individuals reveal behavioral biases during their valuation process.<br />

In accordance with the Coase theorem (Coase 1960), neoclassical theory<br />

postulates that with null income effect and close substitutes, the willingness-to-pay<br />

(WTP), which is the price at which an individual is ready to buy a commodity, and<br />

the willingness-to-accept (WTA), which is the price at which an individual is ready to<br />

sell the same commodity, should be equal (Randall and Stoll 1980, Hanemann 1991).<br />

If the good is available in an active market at the market price, an individual‟s WTP<br />

and WTA should be similar. And if people face similar transaction costs, WTP and<br />

WTA should be similar among people as well. Yet, experimental research that<br />

stemmed from contingent valuation studies has found large disparities between the<br />

WTP and WTA. The endowment effect, or loss aversion, as a behavioral feature is<br />

often invoked to explain the disparity. It occurs when people offer to sell a commonly<br />

available good in their possession at a substantially higher rate than they will pay for<br />

the identical good not in their possession. The other effect, promoted to explain the<br />

disparity, is imperfect substitutability.<br />

Two remedies help remove the initial disparity. The first corresponds to<br />

market settings. Market institutions serve as social tools that induce and reinforce<br />

individual rationality (Smith 1991). Gode and Sunder (1993) assert that an auction<br />

market exerts a powerful constraining force on individual behavior. Cherry et al.<br />

(2003) suggest that a dynamic market environment with repeated expo<strong>sur</strong>e to<br />

discipline is necessary to achieve rationality. When they act rationally, individuals<br />

refine their statements of value. List (2003a) provides evidence consistent with the<br />

notion that experience in bidding with an incentive-compatible auction can remove


the WTA/WTP gap. The second corresponds to market repetition. The motive for<br />

repeating auctions that are incentive-compatible is that individuals require experience<br />

to understand that sincere bidding is the dominant strategy (Coppinger et al. 1980)<br />

and to realize their true valuation of unfamiliar products (Shogren et al. 2000). Plott<br />

(1996) advances a discovered preference hypothesis argument, positing that<br />

responses reflect a type of internal search process in which subjects use practice<br />

rounds to discover their preferences. The experience they gain is reflected in their<br />

bidding behavior. Hence, the imperfect substitutability effect disappears when the<br />

value of the unfamiliar good is perfectly revealed.<br />

Market-based mechanisms such as auctions are widely studied as a means of<br />

buying and selling resources. Auctions took part in the environmental valuation to<br />

answer two questions: (1) which effect counts the most in the WTP and WTA<br />

disparity? and (2) which of the auction mechanisms best removes this disparity?<br />

At first, Kahneman et al. (1990) report experimental evidence of the<br />

endowment effect. They perform an experiment on WTP and WTA by way of<br />

hypothetical telephone inquiry, trading environmental improvements and<br />

preparedness for disasters. They find that randomly assigned owners of an item<br />

require more money to separate from their possession than random buyers are willing<br />

to pay to acquire it. To elicit individuals‟ estimates, they use a Becker-DeGroot-<br />

Marschak mechanism (BDM) – described later on – with random exogenous price<br />

feedback. According to their results, preferences are dependent on endowments, even<br />

in market settings.<br />

Shogren et al. (1994) assert that Kahneman et al.‟s experiment creates<br />

artificial scarcity. They find no evidence of the endowment effect on trading candy<br />

bars, for the values converge over time. But, in the experiment with contaminated<br />

food – a good with imperfect substitutes that can be considered as nonmarketed –<br />

they show that the discrepancy remains significant after iteration.<br />

<strong>La</strong>ter on, Shogren et al. (2001) test three auction mechanisms to trade candy<br />

bars and mugs and suggest that the auction mechanism can itself account for the<br />

conflicting observations in experiments. In their experiments, they show that the<br />

common early disparity between WTP and WTA in auctions is not to be called into<br />

63


question. However, the gap ebbs away under the Vickrey‟s second price auction<br />

(SPA) and random nth-price auction (NPA) – see Section 2 for further details – while<br />

it lasts under the BDM mechanism, implying that the endowment effect can be<br />

eliminated with repetitions of some market mechanisms.<br />

Horowitz (2006a) states that the BDM framework could be used to assess<br />

public WTP for public projects, with the distribution of costs equal to the project<br />

costs; and other valuation mechanism should be used if the behavioral evidence<br />

shows that mechanisms are equivalent. Lusk and Rousu (2006) suggest that NPA is<br />

preferable to BDM if the researcher is looking for true valuation above all. Lusk et al.<br />

(2007) conclude in their study of payoff functions that BDM and NPA "provide<br />

relatively strong incentives for truthful bidding for all individuals regardless of the<br />

magnitude of their true WTP".<br />

Seeing that findings suggest that the auction mechanism per se accounts for<br />

the conflicting observations across market settings, Plott and Zeiler‟s (2005)<br />

conclusion that the results differ from unsound experimental procedures is<br />

incomplete.<br />

This chapter builds on Shogren et al.‟s (2001) results. Which auction<br />

mechanism is the best and fastest at reducing the gap? Which mechanism should be<br />

preferred over another? While Shogren et al. (1994) support Hanneman‟s results,<br />

assuming that the low substitution elasticity for the nonmarket good explains the<br />

WTA/WTP gap, they do not advocate the institution capable of properly valuing<br />

nonmarket goods. Likewise, Shogren et al. (2001) use only private goods to compare<br />

the influence of auction mechanisms. Only List (2003b) gives credit to the use of the<br />

random nth-price auction in valuing nonmarket private goods, but he does not state<br />

whether his results carry over to public goods.<br />

We aim at studying private valuation of public goods without direct<br />

substitutes, so we put realistic public goods such as the carbon offset, which can be<br />

attained via tree planting, into auctioning. Public goods have two defining<br />

characteristics: non-excludability and non-rivalry. Offsetting carbon emission helps<br />

prevent the effects of climate change; it is considered as a public good because, once<br />

provided, everyone can enjoy the benefits without adversely affecting anyone else‟s<br />

64


ability to do the same 10 . Rather then compulsory carbon trade, we institute voluntary<br />

trade to approach truthful valuation on both the bidder‟s (buyer‟s) and the offerer‟s<br />

(seller‟s) sides. On account of the common bias of nescience 11 in valuing unfamiliar<br />

or public goods, we remind the subjects that they are part of the milieu, which makes<br />

them indirectly and partly accountable for the current level of greenhouse gases, as<br />

they solicit industries to produce goods they are willing to consume at some<br />

environmental cost; in our case, it is the paper and energy used by students to achieve<br />

their education 12 .<br />

By means of repetitive auction mechanisms, the initial disparity between WTP<br />

and WTA can be removed. Nevertheless, we obtain different results from preceding<br />

studies, in a sense that only the BDM mechanism is able to remove the gap in later<br />

bidding rounds. SPA and NPA, which are also incentive-compatible, do not succeed<br />

in removing the disparity between bids and offers. Still, when we submit our<br />

experimental results to the exponential regression, we notice that in spite of a large<br />

early gap, NPA yields the highest speed of convergence to welfare indices‟ equality,<br />

suggesting that it contains strong incentives for rational behavior. In addition, we<br />

observe that subjects are strongly motivated by the subjective private benefit from<br />

funding the public good (either due to warm-glow 13 or to a concern for being<br />

formally identified as a contributor of the public good).<br />

The remainder of this chapter proceeds as follows. Section 2.2 describes the<br />

experimental design. Section 2.3 presents results and the analysis of data through<br />

standard and novel statistical tools. Section 2.4 provides discussion on how our<br />

results relate with existing work and present a new line of reasoning. We give some<br />

concluding remarks in Section 2.5.<br />

10 We in<strong>sur</strong>ed the public good characteristic by providing to every subject, after couple of weeks, an<br />

email feedback on the aggregate offset achievement.<br />

11 It reflects the absence of knowledge or the consideration that things are unknowable.<br />

12 The money released from trading (buying and non-selling) was sent to a non-governmental<br />

organization that launched a plantation of 1,404 Mangrove trees in Sumatra, Indonesia.<br />

13 Utility derived from the warm-glow (see Andreoni 1990) arises when the act itself of giving<br />

generates utility. It contrasts with the usual case where the individual only cares about the total amount<br />

of the carbon offset.<br />

65


2.2. The experimental design<br />

We want to evaluate the impact of three incentive-compatible auction<br />

mechanisms in the mea<strong>sur</strong>ement of WTP and WTA for a public good without<br />

substitutes. Our experiments were conducted during three sessions at the École<br />

Polytechnique. Different subjects took part in each of the three sessions (three types<br />

of auction mechanism) for a total of 102 participants, divided in three groups of<br />

subjects, which in turn were arbitrarily divided into two subgroups of buyers and<br />

sellers. Each subject received an identification number she filled in on each bid or<br />

offer, enabling her to be tracked whilst preserving her anonymity. The initial<br />

endowment distributed to the buyers was put forward to fund tree planting. On the<br />

WTP market-side, each buyer received EUR 15 and was asked to state her bid for a<br />

certificate of one ton of carbon offset (≤ EUR 15). If she won the bid, trees were<br />

planted in her name (this was acknowledged by a certificate). On the WTA market-<br />

side, each seller was given a certificate of one ton of carbon offset she could keep, in<br />

which case trees were planted in her name, or sell. If she decided to sell the certificate<br />

on the offer she stated (≤ EUR 15), no trees were planted. Subjects ignored that the<br />

cost of offsetting one ton of carbon in a five-year period was EUR 15, which enabled<br />

to plant 36 trees 14 .<br />

The parameters – recapitulated in the table below – of the experiments are the<br />

following: (i) 31 to 37 subjects participated per experiment; (ii) subjects were<br />

recruited among the voluntary students from the École Polytechnique 15 ; (iii) the good<br />

put in auctioning was a certificate of one ton of carbon offset; (iv) none information<br />

on price was provided; (v) subjects received an initial balance of EUR 15 or a<br />

certificate of one ton of carbon offset as an endowment; (vi) ten trials per experiment<br />

were unfolded, one of which was randomly selected as the binding trial; and (vii)<br />

BDM, SPA and NPA auction mechanisms were tested.<br />

14 In accordance with the system of reference applied by the non-governmental organization.<br />

15 Multi-cultural elite undergraduate students in science and engineering, salaried by the French<br />

Government. Their curriculum includes economics courses.<br />

66


Comments on the experimental protocol: our goal is to question auction<br />

mechanisms‟ influence on the gap between WTP and WTA, and not to divulge the<br />

gap itself, for we consider it as an established fact, so we decide to put an upper-<br />

bound on the sellers‟ choices in order to monitor which of the three market settings<br />

best replies to the early disparity. The bounds and endowments definitely create an<br />

anchoring effect, but there is no reason that it affects differently the three incentive-<br />

compatible mechanisms. Then, we publicly suggested to the subjects that revealing<br />

truthful preferences is a neutral strategy which will not penalize them. At last, we<br />

pooled all performed rounds in the mea<strong>sur</strong>ement of the gap.<br />

Market environment BDM SPA NPA<br />

Auctioned goods CO 2 offset certificate CO 2 offset certificate CO 2 offset certificate<br />

Initially endowment EUR 15 EUR 15 EUR 15<br />

Sellers‟ bound EUR 15 EUR 15 EUR 15<br />

Number of trials 10 10 10<br />

Retail price information None provided None provided None provided<br />

Optimal responses explained Suggested Suggested Suggested<br />

Practice round performed Pooled Pooled Pooled<br />

Subject participation Voluntary Voluntary Voluntary<br />

Number of subjects 37 34 31<br />

The Becker–DeGroot–Marschak mechanism (BDM)<br />

Becker, DeGroot, and Marschak (1964) introduce a mechanism under which<br />

buyers (respectively sellers) simultaneously state the highest (respectively lowest)<br />

amount they are willing to pay (respectively accept) for the good. In our experiment,<br />

each buyer and seller was asked to give, for each of the ten trials, independently and<br />

privately, her WTP or WTA by marking an "x" on a recording sheet that listed price<br />

intervals, such as in the following illustration. The price intervals ranged from EUR<br />

1–15, in increments of EUR 0.5. After collecting recording sheets from buyers and<br />

sellers, the monitor randomly selected one price from the list. If a buyer was willing<br />

to pay at least the random price for the certificate of one ton of carbon offset, she<br />

bought the item at that price. Otherwise, she did not buy the item. If a seller was<br />

67


willing to accept a price lower than or equal to the random price for the certificate of<br />

one ton of carbon offset, she sold the item at that price. Otherwise, she did not sell the<br />

item.<br />

I will buy (sell) I will not buy (sell)<br />

If the price is EUR 0.0 -- --<br />

If the price is EUR 0.5 -- --<br />

If the price is EUR 1.0 -- --<br />

If the price is EUR 1.5 -- --<br />

…<br />

If the price is EUR 14.0 -- --<br />

If the price is EUR 14.5 -- --<br />

If the price is EUR 15.0 -- --<br />

The random price, all bids and offers, and the number of buyers and sellers<br />

willing to buy and sell at the random price were made public after each trial. At the<br />

end of the experiment, one of the trials was randomly selected as the binding trial for<br />

the take-home pay.<br />

The second-price auction mechanism (SPA)<br />

Under the Vickrey (1961) second-price auction, bidders and offerers operated<br />

simultaneously. Buyers were asked to record, for each of the ten trials, privately and<br />

independently, the maximum they were willing to pay for the certificate of one ton of<br />

carbon offset. In this case, buyers wrote a numerical value on the recording sheet. The<br />

monitor collected values and, after each trial, made all bids public, as well as the<br />

identification number of the highest bidder and the market-clearing price (second<br />

highest bid). The monitor gave each seller a certificate of one ton of carbon offset.<br />

For each trial, sellers wrote their minimum WTA to sell the certificate. After each<br />

trial, the monitor publicly diffused all offers, the identification number of the lowest<br />

offerer and the market-clearing price (second lowest offer). Like with BDM, after the<br />

tenth trial, the monitor randomly selected one of the trials as the binding trial for the<br />

take-home pay for both buyers and sellers.<br />

68


The random nth-price auction mechanism (NPA)<br />

The random nth-price auction is conducted as follows (bidders and offerers<br />

operate simultaneously): (i) for each trial, each bidder submits a bid (resp. an offer)<br />

on a recording sheet; (ii) all bids are ranked from lowest to highest, all offers are<br />

ranked from highest to lowest; (iii) the monitor selects a random number n� �2, N�<br />

with N the number of bidders; (iv) the n � 1 buyers who made the highest bids buy the<br />

certificate of one ton of carbon offset at the nth-price and the n � 1 sellers who made<br />

the lowest offers sell the certificate of one ton of carbon offset at the nth-price. The<br />

value of n, all bids and offers, the buying and selling price, and the number of buyers<br />

and sellers willing to buy and sell at the random price, are made public after each<br />

trial. Once again, after the tenth trial, the monitor randomly selects one of the trials as<br />

the binding trial for the take-home pay for both buyers and sellers.<br />

The BDM, SPA and NPA mechanisms are incentive-compatible. It is not in a<br />

buyer‟s interest to understate her WTP; if the random buying price falls between the<br />

stated WTP and the true WTP, the buyer foregoes a beneficial trade. It is also not in a<br />

buyer‟s interest to overstate true WTP; if the random buying price is greater than the<br />

true value but less than the stated value, the buyer is required to buy the good at a<br />

price greater than her true WTP. The reasoning is identical for the seller.<br />

A complementary remark on NPA can be made. Contrary to SPA, subjects<br />

have a nonnegative probability of winning the auction, which engages off-margin<br />

bidders and offerers who usually consider that they will be excluded from the market.<br />

As well, the endogenously determined market-clearing price prevents bidders and<br />

offerers from using the random market-clearing price as an indicator.<br />

2.3. The results<br />

Table 2.1. presents the summary statistics of the experimental results under<br />

BDM, SPA and NPA. In all experiments, bidding behavior in the initial trial does<br />

69


Auction Value mea<strong>sur</strong>e<br />

Table 2.1. Summary statistics of the BDM, SPA and NPA mechanisms<br />

H0: Mean WTP – Mean WTA = 0; H1: Mean WTP – Mean WTA < 0<br />

a t-test: reject H0 at the 5% level<br />

Trial<br />

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10<br />

BDM WTP Mean 6.18 7.11 7.82 8.11 8.29 8.66 8.39 8.71 8.82 8.61<br />

N=19 Median 5.00 5.50 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.50<br />

Variance 12.51 15.52 15.39 15.43 15.09 15.86 15.27 14.62 14.37 17.74<br />

WTA Mean 10.53 9.47 9.56 8.42 8.92 8.69 9.53 9.19 8.67 8.06<br />

N=18 Median 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.75 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.00 9.75 8.25<br />

Variance 6.07 12.34 18.03 18.60 20.95 21.53 19.75 16.86 17.79 20.97<br />

Ratio of mean WTA/WTP 1.70 1.33 1.22 1.04 1.08 1.00 1.13 1.06 0.98 0.94<br />

t-test of means a –3.85 –1.46 –0.83 0.27 0.06 0.46 –0.39 0.09 0.58 0.91<br />

SPA WTP Mean 3.47 3.91 4.69 5.43 5.68 5.71 6.01 6.50 5.46 6.59<br />

N=17 Median 3.00 4.10 5.00 5.60 5.80 6.05 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00<br />

Variance 9.64 6.68 5.52 5.42 6.15 7.71 8.86 14.50 12.56 10.04<br />

WTA Mean 10.66 8.74 8.47 9.07 8.59 9.82 9.40 8.32 9.52 9.23<br />

N=17 Median 10.00 9.00 8.00 9.00 7.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00<br />

Variance 16.60 19.56 14.03 22.27 20.72 29.45 29.44 32.86 26.44 30.86<br />

Ratio of mean WTA/WTP 3.07 2.23 1.81 1.67 1.51 1.72 1.57 1.28 1.75 1.40<br />

t-test of means a –5.28 –3.41 –3.06 –2.35 –1.78 –2.30 –1.78 –0.59 –2.21 –1.20<br />

NPA WTP Mean 3.97 3.98 4.77 4.93 4.77 5.19 6.18 6.12 6.85 6.72<br />

N=15 Median 2.50 4.00 5.00 5.12 5.14 5.01 7.00 6.50 7.00 7.26<br />

Variance 12.67 6.92 4.83 4.30 5.40 6.33 5.81 6.54 7.77 10.03<br />

WTA Mean 10.75 10.52 10.29 10.22 9.86 9.05 9.17 9.14 9.23 9.37<br />

N=16 Median 10.50 10.00 9.74 9.65 8.77 8.50 8.49 8.35 8.09 8.50<br />

Variance 10.19 6.99 6.32 9.46 10.31 13.75 16.67 13.30 14.08 20.64<br />

Ratio of mean WTA/WTP 2.71 2.64 2.16 2.07 2.07 1.74 1.48 1.49 1.35 1.39<br />

t-test of means a –5.06 –6.45 –6.21 –5.17 –4.60 –2.87 –1.90 –2.10 –1.40 –1.33<br />

70


not contradict the endowment effect: the mean offer WTA 16 is significantly<br />

greater than the mean bid WTP 17 . Still, with experience gained through repetitive<br />

auctioning under the BDM mechanism, WTA offers decrease and WTP bids<br />

increase over time 18 . The WTA / WTP ratios thus decline throughout the ten<br />

trials, falling from 1.70 in trial 1 to 0.94 in trial 10 (see Fig 2.1.), which<br />

corresponds to WTP increase of 39% and WTA decrease of 23%. Concerning<br />

variances, we notice that the dispersion around the mean increases for both WTP<br />

(42%) and WTA (245%) from trial 1 to trial 10. In trials 4–10, a t-test shows that<br />

we cannot reject the null hypothesis that WTP and WTA come from the same<br />

distribution at the p


3,50<br />

3,00<br />

2,50<br />

2,00<br />

1,50<br />

1,00<br />

0,50<br />

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10<br />

Fig. 2.1. WTA / WTP disparity from trial 1 to trial 10<br />

Let us now take a further insight in our results and those of the mug<br />

experiments from Shogren et al. (2001). At first sight, we obtain contradictory<br />

results. In our experiment, the gap disappears under BDM, whereas in theirs,<br />

BDM is the only mechanism unable to remove the early gap.<br />

Our findings show that repetitions under the BDM mechanism can remove<br />

the endowment effect, as long as it steers people‟s behavior. Likewise, they<br />

suggest that the auction mechanism per se can account for the conflicting<br />

observations, as we clearly observe different paths of equalization of WTP and<br />

WTA . We introduce an innovative tool to study the path of gap removal: the<br />

exponential regression on the WTA / WTP ratios.<br />

An exponential regression is of a form<br />

72<br />

BDM<br />

SPA<br />

NPA<br />

ax<br />

y � be with x the variable along<br />

the x-axis, y the regressed values of WTA / WTP , a the amplitude of the<br />

decrease (or speed of convergence to equality) and b the y-intercept of regression.<br />

The function is based on the function linear regression, with the y-axis<br />

logarithmically scaled. R-square gives information on the exponential relationship<br />

between ratios.<br />

We apply this method to Shogren et al.‟s (2001) mug experiments (see<br />

Fig. 2.2.) and to our experiments (see Fig. 2.3.). The exponential regression is


used for two reasons: first, it allows observing phenomena with rapid variations,<br />

such as in our experiments; second, it allows observing the decrease path to<br />

equality, that is, the way ratios tend to one. We try to unearth the mechanism able<br />

to remove the gap as quickly as possible, whatever the initial ratio. We can thus<br />

consider the highest coefficient of decrease as the highest speed of convergence to<br />

welfare indices‟ equality (see Table 2.2.).<br />

3,50<br />

3,00<br />

2,50<br />

2,00<br />

1,50<br />

1,00<br />

0,50<br />

3,5<br />

3<br />

2,5<br />

2<br />

1,5<br />

1<br />

0,5<br />

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10<br />

Fig. 2.2. Exponential regression of WTA / WTP disparity<br />

from Shogren et al.’s (2001) mug experiments<br />

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10<br />

Fig. 2.3. Exponential regression of WTA / WTP disparity<br />

73<br />

BDM<br />

SPA<br />

NP A<br />

Expon. (NP A)<br />

Expon. (S P A)<br />

Expon. (BDM)<br />

BDM<br />

SPA<br />

NP A<br />

Expon. (S P A)<br />

Expon. (BDM)<br />

Expon. (NP A)


Shogren et al.‟s (2001) data from BDM provides no exponential<br />

relationship between sequential ratios, but ours does. Although the y-intercept of<br />

regression starts with the same value (both 1.5), the gap disappears in our<br />

experiment (illustrated by the speed of convergence –0.04) but stays stationary in<br />

the mug experiment (null speed of convergence).<br />

We find in both data that NPA provides the best exponential relationship<br />

between ratios (respectively<br />

2<br />

R � 0.95 and<br />

74<br />

2<br />

R � 0.96 ) and the highest speed of<br />

convergence to equality (respectively –0.08 and –0.12) in time. Under SPA, the<br />

exponential relationship between ratios (respectively<br />

2<br />

R � 0.61 and<br />

2<br />

R � 0.63)<br />

and the speed of convergence to equality (respectively –0.06 and –0.09) are<br />

significant but lower. Sudden leaps of increase of the WTA / WTP ratio under<br />

SPA – due to off-margin bidders – explain the differences in<br />

2<br />

R with regard to<br />

NPA. It is worthwhile noticing that SPA comes out as the "worst" active market<br />

mechanism even though it is frequently used in experimental environments to<br />

reveal agents‟ preferences. Under BDM, our experiment and Shogren et al.‟s<br />

(2001) experiment both obtain the lowest results in terms of exponential<br />

relationship 19 and speed of convergence to equality. Therefore, the orderings of<br />

convergence in our experiments and those of Shogren et al.‟s (2001) are alike.<br />

Table 2.2. Exponential regression statistics<br />

Auction Regression statistics Our experiments<br />

Shogren et al.’s<br />

mug experiments<br />

BDM Speed of convergence (a) –0.04 –0.00<br />

y-intercept of regression (b) 1.5 1.5<br />

R-square 0.69 0.00<br />

SPA Speed of convergence (a) –0.06 –0.09<br />

y-intercept of regression (b) 2.5 1.9<br />

R-square 0.61 0.63<br />

NPA Speed of convergence (a) –0.08 –0.12<br />

y-intercept of regression (b) 2.9 2.8<br />

R-square 0.95 0.96<br />

19 The low exponential factor with the BDM is partially explained by the initial smaller difference<br />

between WTP and WTA.


If the initial gap is due to the choice of the market mechanism, then the<br />

choice of BDM is appropriate, for it produces the smallest initial gap. But, if we<br />

are to urge the auction mechanism able to rapidly deflate an excessive initial<br />

WTA / WTP gap in a market-clearing price setting, we suggest the use of NPA<br />

which involves most of the bidders in the auctioning. Indeed, as for the model of<br />

exponential regression, the BDM mechanism would not have equalized the<br />

welfare indices if the starting ratio were more of SPA or NPA‟s magnitude. This<br />

appears all the more sound, provided the BDM mechanism is a passive market-<br />

like setting with only minor adjustments in bidding behavior 20 . Indeed, NPA<br />

applies competitive pres<strong>sur</strong>e to the participating bidders. A bidder cannot avoid<br />

acting strategically since her best bid depends on the competing bids. By bidding<br />

more aggressively, the bidder improves her chances of winning the auction. As far<br />

as SPA is concerned, the unevenness in the decrease of the gap jeopardizes its<br />

robustness.<br />

2.4. Discussion<br />

Our results support the standard thesis that market mechanisms can<br />

remove or at least sturdily reduce the initial disparity between WTP and WTA.<br />

However, some points need to be clarified.<br />

Let us first focus on the specificity of the good in sale. Under NPA and<br />

SPA, the number of traded tons of carbon offset in a period is independent of the<br />

bids and offers submitted by the subjects. In any case, in SPA, one ton of carbon<br />

offset is bought and sold; in NPA, n � 1 tons of carbon offset are bought and sold.<br />

As a result, free-riding is likely to occur, since a subject‟s bid cannot affect the<br />

total public good provision while it affects her payment (buying a certificate is<br />

costly). On the contrary, under BDM, subjects‟ choices affect the total provision<br />

of public good. Indeed, if a seller chooses a minimum selling price higher than the<br />

randomly selected price, she will keep her certificate and one more ton of carbon<br />

20 See footnote 7 in Shogren et al. (2001).<br />

75


will be offset. The same reasoning applies for buyers. Put differently, subjects<br />

know they can influence the amount of carbon offset under BDM as their<br />

probability of winning the right to buy one certificate is independent of other<br />

bidders: the higher the private bid, the higher the chances that a ton of carbon is<br />

offset.<br />

This difference between BDM on the one side and NPA and SPA on the<br />

other side allows identifying two distinct motivations for funding the public good.<br />

First, there is "the public good motivation": a subject wants to buy or keep a<br />

certificate because it allows offsetting one ton of carbon for the community.<br />

Second, there is "the private good motivation": a subject wants to buy or keep a<br />

certificate because she wants to own a certificate and be associated to the<br />

offsetting even though this does not change the number of tons of carbon offset<br />

(she either wants to derive a warm-glow from altruism or wants to gain social<br />

status through the public good funding). Individuals often provide more public<br />

goods than traditional economic theory predicts. Public goods are then considered<br />

as impure public goods, which are products or services that combine both public<br />

and private benefits.<br />

In BDM, both motivations for funding the public good are present,<br />

whereas in NPA and SPA, only the private good motivation is present. Let us<br />

consider s – the mean value of all bids (WTP) and offers (WTA) – as the mean<br />

value of the public good. After computation, we observe that s over the ten<br />

rounds is strictly higher with BDM (8.57) than with SPA (7.26) or NPA (7.63).<br />

Locally, at the last period, the values are respectively 8.34, 7.91 and 8.09. These<br />

results indicate that the private good motivation is extreme compared to the public<br />

good motivation, i.e. subjects are mainly paying for enjoying warm-glow or being<br />

identified as contributors of the carbon offsetting. If we take s of BDM as a<br />

benchmark value of the public good, the <strong>sur</strong>plus of the BDM value compared to<br />

SPA and NPA values corresponds to the value of the public good motivation<br />

which lies in the interval �0.94, 1.31 �.<br />

Since the public benefit for an individual is<br />

negligible, individuals mostly derive some private benefit from the public good.<br />

76


These results are thus consistent with microeconomic analysis, where the private<br />

benefit governs the decisions of economic agents.<br />

Contrary to the observations where repeat-play public good games produce<br />

declining contribution over time (see Andreoni (1988) and Caldas et al. (2003)),<br />

s is increasing in our experiments. As a matter of fact, if we regress s with the<br />

number of periods, we obtain a small but strictly positive correlation coefficient<br />

(BDM: 0.18; SPA: 0.13; NPA: 0.15). In standard public good games, the fall is<br />

motivated by free-riding and discouragement of high type players to pursue alone<br />

the provision of public good. We propose two explanations for the rise we<br />

observed. First, the funded public good does not only concern the subjects but the<br />

population outside the experiment. Therefore, the free-riding attitude of some<br />

participants does not alter subjects‟ motivations since they do not specifically<br />

contribute for these free-riders (while they do in public good games). Second, as<br />

already mentioned, the private good motivation outperforms the public good<br />

motivation, which also explains the absence of the usual decline in subjects‟<br />

bids 21 .<br />

For all these reasons, we decide to focus on the private value dimension of<br />

the public good in the following discussion.<br />

Contrary to NPA or SPA, the initial gap under the BDM mechanism is<br />

closer to one in both Shogren et al.‟s (2001) and our experiments. As WTA is<br />

similar under the three auction mechanisms in the first trial, this observation<br />

comes from a high starting WTP under BDM, i.e. shorter distance to cover from<br />

bids to offers. Given that BDM and NPA both share the properties of incentive-<br />

compatibility and the possibility for every bidder to offset a ton of carbon, the<br />

explanation could come from the unambiguous distribution of prices and payoffs<br />

under the BDM mechanism, whereas under NPA there is ambiguity in view of the<br />

unknown bids of the opponents (see Sarin and Weber (1993)).<br />

Another explanation could come from the theory of disappointment<br />

aversion. In a recent article, Horowitz (2006b) relates that under BDM an<br />

21 One could argue that bids increased because of the house money effect. However, Clark (2002)<br />

finds no evidence of it in a public good experiment.<br />

77


individual may report a higher value than the true one, simply because she is more<br />

disappointed from not receiving the good than from receiving it at a relatively<br />

high price, which induces her to report a higher bid to increase the chance of<br />

winning the auction. This could explain why the bids under BDM started higher<br />

earlier than the bids under NPA and SPA; subjects knew from the very beginning<br />

that they were bidding against a market-clearing price issued from a known<br />

ceiling market-clearing price.<br />

Let us also mention a proposition from Milgrom and Weber (1982) that<br />

could be spoken for our results. The authors state that common uncertainty about<br />

the value of a good creates affiliated private values, especially in case of<br />

unfamiliar goods. This is because early trials send information from which high-<br />

bidders induce low-bidders to revise their preferences and increase their bids, the<br />

logic being that there are some common but unknown characteristics of the item<br />

released with bids. Our experimental protocol does not permit to validate or<br />

invalidate this hypothesis, but we can specify that all subjects received the same<br />

amount of information on the nature of the unfamiliar good before the auction<br />

took place 22 . Although the mimesis phenomenon could explain rising low bids<br />

under SPA and NPA just after the start-off, our BDM experiment shows higher<br />

early bids; therefore, the logic of common uncertainty could only relate to the<br />

latter bidding rounds. Moreover, the dispersion around the mean from trial 1 to<br />

trial 10 increases in all experiments, partly refuting the argument of affiliated<br />

private values. The only case of dispersion fall that could challenge independent<br />

values‟ validity deals with WTP in the NPA mechanism.<br />

2.5. Concluding remarks<br />

We examined three mechanisms that could rectify the initial gap between<br />

WTP and WTA in the trading of a public good. From simple observations of the<br />

disparity ratios, we observe different results from Shogren et al. (2001) and can<br />

22 The market price effect, implied by affiliated private values, disappears when bidders receive<br />

nonprice information about the good before the experience is conducted (List and Shogren 1999).<br />

78


conclude either that their findings – which suggest the validity of SPA and NPA<br />

in valuing private goods – are local, or that the public goods are subject to a<br />

different bidding behavior.<br />

We think that under a quasi-market setting such as the BDM mechanism<br />

subjects understood the fact that they could influence the level of the public good<br />

and behaved accordingly. In active markets with endogenous market-clearing<br />

prices such as NPA, no subject could influence the level of the public good which<br />

acted as a disincentive to augment the level of public good. Our results show a<br />

disparity dropped with repetition under the three mechanisms, suggesting that the<br />

economic theory of rationality within markets operates. And yet, the theory<br />

implies a perfect equality between WTP and WTA, which seems not to be<br />

guaranteed when funding a public good. Research must deal with this.<br />

Value mea<strong>sur</strong>es approached equality principally for the reason that bids<br />

considerably increased throughout trials. Since offers moderately decreased in<br />

time, signifying a modest remedy to loss aversion, we could think of markets as<br />

systems which lift the subjects‟ regret not to acquire the good. Two-sided market<br />

value would then be somewhere between the behavioral exaggerations of loss<br />

aversion and disappointment aversion. These unforeseen questions necessitate<br />

further research.<br />

In addition, more experimental research on private and public values of a<br />

public good should be conducted. For example, we could identify more accurately<br />

the private good and public good motivations by explicitly insisting on the fact<br />

that bids cannot affect the size of the provision of public goods in NPA and SPA.<br />

As well, we could conduct experiments where subjects would be purposely<br />

deprived from any proof of having financed the public good; that way, we could<br />

distinguish between the desire to finance the public good and the desire to be<br />

identified by others as a generous contributor to the public good.<br />

2.6. References<br />

Andreoni, J. (1988), “Why free-ride? Strategies and Learning in Public Goods<br />

Experiments”, Journal of Public Economics, 37: 291–304.<br />

79


Andreoni, J. (1990), “Impure Altruism and Donations to Public Goods: A Theory<br />

of Warm-Glow Giving?”, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, 100:<br />

464–477.<br />

Becker, G., DeGroot, M. and Marschak, J. (1964), “Mea<strong>sur</strong>ing Utility by a Single<br />

Response Sequential Method”, Behavioral Science, 9: 226–232.<br />

Bohm, P., Linden, J. and Sonnegard, J. (1997), “Eliciting Reservation Prices,<br />

Becker-DeGroot-Marschak Mechanisms vs. Markets”, Economic Journal,<br />

107: 1079–1089.<br />

Brouwer, R., Bateman, I., Saunders, C. and <strong>La</strong>ngford, I. (1999), “Perception and<br />

valuation of risk reduction as a public and private good: Investigating<br />

methodological issues in contingent valuation of UV risks in New Zealand”,<br />

CSERGE Working Paper GEC 99-06.<br />

Caldas, J., Rodgrigues, J. and Carvalho, L. (2003), Economics and social<br />

psychology on public goods: experiments and explorations, Dinâmia Working<br />

Paper, 2003/30.<br />

Cherry, T., Crocker, T. and Shogren, J. (2003), “Rationality Spillovers”, Journal<br />

of Environmental Economics and Management, 45: 63–84.<br />

Clark, J. (2002), “House Money Effects in Public Good Experiments”,<br />

Experimental Economics, 5: 223–231.<br />

Coase, R. (1960), “The Problem of Social Cost”, Journal of <strong>La</strong>w and Economics,<br />

3: 1–44.<br />

Coppinger, V., Smith, V. and Titus, J. (1980), “Incentives and Behavior in<br />

English, Dutch and Sealed-Bid Auctions”, Economic Inquiry, 18: 1–22<br />

Gode, D. and Sunder, S. (1993), “Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-<br />

Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality”,<br />

Journal of Political Economy, 101: 119–137.<br />

Hanemann, W. (1991), “Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept: How<br />

Much Can They Differ?”, American Economic Review, 81: 635–647.<br />

Horowitz, J. (2006a), “What Do We Know About the Performance of the Becker-<br />

DeGroot-Marschak Mechanism”, available at<br />

http://faculty.arec.umd.edu/jhorowitz/BDM-Empirics-1.doc.<br />

80


Horowitz, J. (2006b), “The Becker-DeGroot-Marschak Mechanism Is Not<br />

Necessarily Incentive Compatible, Even for Non-Random Goods”, Economics<br />

Letters, 93: 6–11.<br />

Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. and Thaler, R. (1990), “Experimental Test of the<br />

Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem”, Journal of Political Economy,<br />

98: 1325–1348.<br />

List, J. and Shogren, J. (1999), “Price Information and Bidding Behavior in<br />

Repeated Second-Price Auctions”, American Journal of Agricultural<br />

Economics, 81: 942–49.<br />

List, J. (2003a), “Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies?”,<br />

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118: 41–71.<br />

List, J. (2003b), “Using random nth-Price Auctions to value Non-Market Goods<br />

and Services”, Journal of Regulatory Economics, 23: 193–205.<br />

Lusk, J. and Rousu, M. (2006), “Market Price Endogeneity and Accuracy of<br />

Value Elicitation Mechanisms”, in List, J. (ed.), Using Experimental Methods<br />

in Environmental and Resource Economics, Northhampton, MA: Edward<br />

Elgar Publishing.<br />

Lusk, J., Alexander, C. and Rousu, M. (2007), “Designing Experimental Auctions<br />

For Marketing Research: Effect Of Values, Distributions, And Mechanisms<br />

On Incentives For Truthful Bidding”, Review of Marketing Science, 5: 1–30.<br />

Milgrom, P. and Weber, R. (1982), “A theory of auctions and competitive<br />

bidding”, Econometrica, 50: 1089–1122.<br />

Plott, C. (1996), “Rational individual behavior in markets and social choice<br />

processes: the Discovered Preference Hypothesis”, in Arrow, K., Colombatto,<br />

E., Perleman, M. and Schmidt, C., (eds.), Rational Foundations of Economic<br />

Behavior, Macmillan and St. Martins London.<br />

Plott, C. and Zeiler, K. (2005), “The Willingness to Pay/Willingness to Accept<br />

Gap, the Endowment Effect, Subject Misconceptions and Experimental<br />

Procedures for Eliciting Valuations”, American Economic Review, 95: 530–<br />

545.<br />

Randall, A. and Stoll, J. (1980), “Consumer‟s Surplus in Commodity Space”,<br />

American Economic Review, 71: 449–457.<br />

Sarin, R. and Weber, M. (1993), “Effects of Ambiguity in Market Experiments”,<br />

Management Science, 39: 609–615.<br />

81


Shogren, J., Shin, S., Hayes, D. and Kliebenstein, J. (1994), “Resolving<br />

Differences in Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept”, American<br />

Economic Review, 84: 255–270.<br />

Shogren, J., List, J. and Hayes, D. (2000), “Preference Learning in Consecutive<br />

Experimental Auctions”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83:<br />

1016–1021.<br />

Shogren, J., Cho, S., Koo, C., List, J., Park, C., Polo, P. and Wilhelmi, R. (2001),<br />

“Auction Mechanisms and the Mea<strong>sur</strong>ement of WTP and WTA”, Resource<br />

and Energy Economics, 23: 97–109.<br />

Smith, V. (1991), “Rational Choice: The Contrast between Economics and<br />

Psychology”, Journal of Political Economy, 99: 877–897.<br />

Vickrey, W. (1961), “Counterspeculation, Auctions, and Competitive Sealed<br />

Tenders”, Journal of Finance, 16: 8–37.<br />

82


2.7. Appendix<br />

GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS (translated from French)<br />

You are about to participate in an experiment about decision making. You are not<br />

allowed to speak to your neighbors during the experiment.<br />

All human activities release greenhouse gases, including CO2, that provoke the<br />

global warming. This warming endangers the planet, its inhabitants, its<br />

ecosystems and biodiversity. One way to fight against global warming is to plant<br />

trees. The key elements are the following: the forested <strong>sur</strong>faces are a carbon trap;<br />

young forests store much more carbon than old forests, for trees absorb CO2 as<br />

they grow; forests preserve plant and animal biodiversity.<br />

An NGO has launched a project of carbon offsetting by funding the reforestation<br />

projects. The purpose is to offset carbon emissions by buying off your own<br />

emissions. The compensation is acknowledged by a certificate of one ton of<br />

carbon offset.<br />

During your education at the École Polytechnique, you have received and printed,<br />

and will certainly do it over in the future, number of documents required for your<br />

schoolwork; it is also the case with your consumption of energy (such as light,<br />

heating, power supply for computers, etc.) Because you are contributing to the<br />

emissions through your consumption of paper and energy via your indirect<br />

demand for their manufacturing and distribution, we want to value your<br />

willingness to buy off your CO2 emissions.<br />

To this end, we will use a mechanism of purchasing and selling certificates of one<br />

ton of CO2 offset, such as the ones we currently hold in our hands.<br />

In couple of weeks, we will get in touch with you by email to inform you about<br />

the number of offset tons of CO2 according to your decisions.<br />

We will now conduct an experiment. As you came into the class, some of you<br />

were designated as sellers while others were designated as buyers. Indeed, each of<br />

you randomly drew a number which decided between buyer and seller. Please<br />

keep this number until the end of the experiment: it will serve us to track you on<br />

the information cards. In the end of the experiment, during the imbursement,<br />

please give us back your numbers.<br />

Only one trial will be binding. We will repeat the experiment ten times. After the<br />

tenth trial, the youngest person in the room will randomly draw a number between<br />

1 and 10, which will designate the binding trial.<br />

Please feel free to interrupt us and ask any question you might have in mind.<br />

83


Without further delay, we are going to read you the instructions concerning the<br />

conduct of the experiment. Let‟s start with those of you who are buyers.<br />

RANDOM NTH-PRICE AUCTION<br />

Buyers<br />

You own €15. You can now participate in an auction in order to buy a certificate<br />

of one ton of CO2 offset. If that is your wish, please submit a bid. The bid you<br />

submit can range between €0 and €15. If you decide to buy the certificate, trees<br />

which are planted on your behalf (acknowledged by your name on the certificate)<br />

will compensate one ton of CO2.<br />

To submit a bid, please specify on the information card the price at which<br />

you’re willing to buy the certificate.<br />

Rules: your bid is ranked among all bids. We randomly select a number between 2<br />

and n (n being the total number of offers). In other words, we randomly draw one<br />

of the bids and look at its rank. You buy a certificate, at the nth price, if your bid<br />

is contained in n–1 highest bids.<br />

Example: twenty bids are submitted. We randomly draw seven, that is, the<br />

seventh-highest bid in the increasing order. You buy a certificate at a displayed<br />

price (seventh-highest bid) if your bid is contained in the six highest bids.<br />

Nota bene: the higher your bid, the higher your chances of buying the certificate.<br />

If your bid is randomly drawn, your bid becomes the displayed price imposed to<br />

the n–1 highest bidders. Since you ignore the displayed price ex ante, giving your<br />

own value of one ton of CO2 offset enables you to buy the certificate if your value<br />

is higher than the displayed price, and prevents you from buying otherwise.<br />

Sellers<br />

You own a certificate of one ton of CO2 offset. You can now participate in an<br />

auction in order to sell your certificate. If that is your wish, please submit an offer.<br />

The offer you submit can range between €0 and €15. If you decide to sell the<br />

certificate with your name on, no ton of CO2 will be offset.<br />

To submit an offer, please specify on the information card the price at which<br />

you’re willing to sell the certificate.<br />

Rules: your offer is ranked among all offers. We randomly select a number<br />

between 2 and n (n being the total number of offers). In other words, we randomly<br />

draw one of the offers and look at its rank. You sell a certificate, at the nth price,<br />

if your offer is contained in n–1 lowest offers.<br />

84


Example: twenty offers are submitted. We randomly draw six, that is, the sixthlowest<br />

offer in the decreasing order. You sell your certificate at a displayed price<br />

(sixth-lowest offer) if your offer is contained in the five lowest offers.<br />

Nota bene: the lower your offer, the higher your chances of selling the certificate.<br />

If your offer is randomly drawn, your offer becomes the displayed price imposed<br />

on the n–1 lowest offers. Since you ignore the displayed price ex ante, giving your<br />

own value of one ton of CO2 offset enables you to sell the certificate if the price is<br />

higher than your value, and prevents you from selling otherwise.<br />

SECOND-PRICE AUCTION<br />

Buyers<br />

You own €15. You can now participate in an auction in order to buy a certificate<br />

of one ton of CO2 offset. If that is your wish, please submit a bid. The bid you<br />

submit can range between €0 and €15. If you decide to buy the certificate, trees<br />

which are planted on your behalf (acknowledged by your name on the certificate)<br />

will compensate one ton of CO2.<br />

To submit a bid, please specify on the information card the price at which<br />

you’re willing to buy the certificate.<br />

Rules: where you‟ve decided to participate in the auction, your offer to purchase is<br />

ranked among all offerings purchase. Offerings are classified in ascending order.<br />

You take the bid if your offer is highest. However, you only pay for the certificate<br />

that the amount of the second offers the highest.<br />

Example: ten bids are submitted. The highest bid is €13. The second highest bid is<br />

€11. The bidder who proposed €13 buys the certificate and pays €11.<br />

Nota bene: the higher your bid, the higher your chances of buying the certificate.<br />

Since you ignore the displayed price ex ante, giving your own value of one ton of<br />

CO2 offset enables you to buy the certificate if your value is higher than the<br />

displayed price, and prevents you from buying otherwise.<br />

Sellers<br />

You own a certificate of one ton of CO2 offset. You can now participate in an<br />

auction in order to sell your certificate. If that is your wish, please submit an offer.<br />

The offer you submit can range between €0 and €15. If you decide to sell the<br />

certificate with your name on, no ton of CO2 will be offset.<br />

To submit an offer, please specify on the information card the price at which<br />

you’re willing to sell the certificate.<br />

85


Rules: your offer to sell is ranked among all offers. Offers are ranked in a<br />

descending order. You sell a certificate if your offer is the lowest, and you sell it<br />

at a displayed price, that is, the second-lowest offer price.<br />

Example: ten offers are submitted. The lowest offer is €5. The second lowest offer<br />

is €7. The seller who proposes €5 sells her certificate and earns €7.<br />

Nota bene: the lower your offer, the higher your chances of selling the certificate.<br />

Since you ignore the displayed price ex ante, giving your own value of one ton of<br />

CO2 offset enables you to sell the certificate if the price is higher than your value,<br />

and prevents you from selling otherwise.<br />

BDM MECHANISM<br />

Buyers<br />

You own 15 €. You can now participate in an auction in order to buy a certificate<br />

of one ton of CO2 offset. If that is your wish, please submit a bid. The bid you<br />

submit can range between €0 and €15. If you decide to buy the certificate, trees<br />

which are planted on your behalf (acknowledged by your name on the certificate)<br />

will compensate one ton of CO2.<br />

To submit a bid, please fill in the following table and mark an “X” for each<br />

price at which you’re (and are not) willing to buy the certificate.<br />

Rules: your maximum bid is ranked among all bids. We randomly select one price<br />

from the price list, which becomes the displayed price. You buy a certificate if<br />

your bid is higher than or equal to the displayed price.<br />

Example: We randomly draw €6. Since your bid is higher than or equal to €6, you<br />

buy the certificate and pay €6.<br />

I will buy I will not buy<br />

If the price is €0 X<br />

If the price is €0.5 X<br />

If the price is €1.0 X<br />

… X<br />

If the price is €8.5 X<br />

If the price is €9 X<br />

If the price is €9.5 X<br />

… X<br />

If the price is €14.0 X<br />

If the price is €14.5 X<br />

If the price is €15.0 X<br />

86


Nota bene: the higher your bid, the higher your chances of buying the certificate.<br />

Since you ignore the displayed price ex ante, giving your own value of one ton of<br />

CO2 offset enables you to buy the certificate if your value is higher than the<br />

displayed price, and prevents you from buying otherwise.<br />

Sellers<br />

You own a certificate of one ton of CO2 offset. You can now participate in an<br />

auction in order to sell your certificate. If that is your wish, please submit an offer.<br />

The offer you submit can range between €0 and €15. If you decide to sell the<br />

certificate with your name on, no ton of CO2 will be offset.<br />

To submit an offer, please fill in the following table and mark an “X” for<br />

each price at which you’re (and are not) willing to sell the certificate.<br />

Rules: your minimum offer is ranked among all offers. We randomly select one<br />

price from the price list, which becomes the displayed price. You sell a certificate<br />

if your offer is lower than or equal to the displayed price.<br />

Example: We randomly draw €10. Since your offer is lower than or equal to €10,<br />

you sell the certificate and earn €10.<br />

I will sell I will not sell<br />

If the price is €15.0 X<br />

If the price is €14.5 X<br />

If the price is €14.0 X<br />

… X<br />

If the price is €5.0 X<br />

If the price is €4.5 X<br />

If the price is €4.0 X<br />

… X<br />

If the price is €1.0 X<br />

If the price is €0.5 X<br />

If the price is €0.0 X<br />

Nota bene: the lower your offer, the higher your chances of selling the certificate.<br />

Since you ignore the displayed price ex ante, giving your own value of one ton of<br />

CO2 offset enables you to sell the certificate if the price is higher than your value,<br />

and prevents you from selling otherwise.<br />

87


89<br />

Chapter 3<br />

Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices<br />

and Reference Point Adaptation<br />

Abstract<br />

When prices depend on the submitted bids, i.e. with endogenous market-clearing<br />

prices in repeated-round auction mechanisms, the assumption of independent private<br />

values that underlines the property of incentive-compatibility is to be brought into<br />

question; even if these mechanisms provide active involvement and market learning.<br />

In its orthodox view, adaptive bidding behavior imperils incentive-compatibility. We<br />

introduce a model which shows that bidders bid according to the anchoring-andadjustment<br />

heuristic, contingent on a sequential weighting function, which neither<br />

ignores the incentive-compatibility constraints nor rejects the posted prices issued<br />

from others‟ bids. By deviating from their anchor in the direction of the public signal,<br />

bidders operate in a correlated equilibrium.<br />

Keywords: auctions, incentive-compatibility, rank-dependence, reference point,<br />

heuristic, bounded rationality, correlated equilibrium<br />

JEL classification: C73, D44, D81, D83


3.1. Introduction<br />

90<br />

"Verum esse ipsum factum 23 ."<br />

Giovanni Battista Vico.<br />

To know how much an individual is willing to pay for some item or for the<br />

provision of public services, and to assess how individuals would behave in the<br />

real world, economists now learn from experiments of repeated-round auctions. In<br />

this way, experimental auctions have been used to examine economic issues such<br />

as the disparity between willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept (Kahneman<br />

et al. 1990, Shogren et al. 1994, Shogren et al. 2001a) or preference reversals<br />

(Cherry et al. 2003, Cox and Grether 1996).<br />

In the presence of an active market, rational behavior ensues from<br />

repetition. In experimental repeated-round auctions, individuals repeatedly bid for<br />

the same good. One of the arguments supportive of repeating auctions is that<br />

practice allows bidders to learn about the auction format and form values in a<br />

market-like setting, which improves the accuracy of value estimates (Alfnes and<br />

Rickertsen 2003, Hayes et al. 1995, Lusk et al. 2001). Plott (1996) formulated the<br />

discovered preference hypothesis which says that preferences converge to the<br />

same underlying preferences – respectful of expected utility – regardless of the<br />

market mechanism. These underlying preferences are discovered after bidders<br />

repeatedly take decisions, receive feed-back on the outcomes of their decisions,<br />

and are given incentives to discover which actions best satisfy their preferences.<br />

Discovered preference hypothesis suggests an equality of mean bids across<br />

rounds. Since anomalies to standard theoretical requirements are the results of<br />

bidders‟ irrationality, only later market trials reveal the true preferences.<br />

Experimentalists want individuals to reveal their preferences truthfully.<br />

Therefore they use incentive-compatibility constraints, where truthfully<br />

announcing private information is an optimal strategy for all individuals<br />

participating in the auction mechanism. Incentive-compatibility is dependent on<br />

23 The true itself is made.


the restrictive assumption that individuals have independent private values. In<br />

strategic interactions under incomplete information, different types of bidders –<br />

such as high- or low-value types – select from a menu of strategies. In principle,<br />

incentive-compatibility forbids the possibility that a given type of bidder mimics<br />

the behavior of other types and adjusts her bids to theirs.<br />

One of the critics against the incentive-compatibility is the argument of<br />

uncertainty (Horowitz 2006a). After an individual reports her bid, she faces<br />

uncertainty over her chances to win the auction and over the final cost she will<br />

incur. On the assumption that the absence of affiliation is verified, repeating<br />

auctions in experiments reduces the uncertainty faced by bidders, because<br />

repeated-rounds provide market feedback from which they learn their preferences<br />

and produce reliable value estimates.<br />

Knetsch et al. (2001) find that bids are influenced by the choice of auction<br />

mechanism. They show that willingness-to-pay (WTP) bids submitted in the later<br />

rounds of a second-price auction are significantly higher than those submitted in<br />

the later rounds of a ninth-price auction. Shogren et al. (2001a) report that mean<br />

WTP bids increase in repeated second-price and random nth-price auctions, but<br />

not in a repeated BDM mechanism (the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism,<br />

described later on). Lusk and Rousu (2006) find that the BDM mechanism is less<br />

accurate than NPA (random nth-price auction, described later on) in generating<br />

bids consistent with true values and recommend the use of endogenous clearing-<br />

price mechanisms when estimating nonmarket goods and services. Indeed, under<br />

BDM, the price is determined separately from the bids, preventing interactions<br />

between bidders plus providing poor market learning. As such, bidders have no<br />

opportunity to perform in a competition that normally imposes discipline on their<br />

bidding behavior (Bohm et al. 1997). Ergo market anomalies and violations of<br />

economic theory are fostered (Lusk and Rousu 2006, Lusk and Shogren 2007).<br />

Still, only a default of interaction makes the independence of bids certain, as the<br />

probability of winning does not depend on others‟ preferences. Shogren and Hays<br />

(1997) assert that “the repeated signals sent by the endogenous market price<br />

91


contaminate individual bids into unreliable and unreasonable beacons of true<br />

preferences”.<br />

Under BDM, the distribution of clearing prices is often known in advance.<br />

When the price distribution is fixed in reference to the common endowment, the<br />

ambiguity of the potential price disappears. On the contrary, under NPA, the<br />

distribution of prices depends on what her opponents are ready to pay for the<br />

good. The nth highest bid will be linked to the highest value. A bidder thus bids as<br />

if she held the highest private value conditional on her subjective estimation of the<br />

distribution of her opponents‟ private values; she assesses her opponents and their<br />

expected valuations for the good. As a result, a complementary issue on<br />

uncertainty appears: uncertainty over the bids of opponents. Of course, bidders<br />

should always bid sincerely because the randomness of the market-clearing price<br />

prevents them from fixing on a stable cost such as with BDM (Shogren et al.<br />

2001b), but they are counter-incited to chase other bidders‟ true valuations.<br />

Several previous experimental studies advocate that affiliation between<br />

private values is factual. List and Shogren (1999) unearth affiliation between<br />

naïve bidders for new goods and influence of posted prices. Similarly, Bernard<br />

(2005) finds affiliation, loss of information about bidders‟ initial values and<br />

recommends the use of single-round auctions. Indeed, if the object of the<br />

experiment is to elicit actual preferences and to test them for consistency, price<br />

information is a potential source of contamination (Cubitt et al. 2001). Cox and<br />

Grether (1996) discover that bids are positively correlated with previous market-<br />

clearing prices. Although it can simply prove interaction between the learning<br />

processes of different subjects, it can also be the result of imitation. Knetsch et al.<br />

(2001) and Cubitt et al. (2001) also report experimental results which imply that<br />

bids are influenced by observations of past prices and by expectations of future<br />

prices. They argue that the provision of price information in repeated auctions<br />

induces cross-subject contamination. This is all the more un<strong>sur</strong>prising, for posted<br />

prices are the norm, unlike bargaining (Hanemann 1994).<br />

In this chapter, we relax the assumption of private values‟ independence in<br />

the repeated-round auctions such as BDM and NPA, when the market-clearing<br />

92


prices are made public at the end of each round. Instead of using game-theory<br />

learning models, we introduce a behavioral model that shows that bidders bid<br />

according to the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic which neither ignores the<br />

rationality and incentive-compatibility constraints, nor rejects the posted prices<br />

issued from others‟ bids. Bidders simply weight information at their disposal and<br />

adjust their discovered value using reference points encoded in the sequential<br />

price weighting function. The general hypothesis is that selection among strategies<br />

is adaptive, in that a decision maker will choose strategies that are relatively<br />

efficient in terms of effort and accuracy as task and context demands are varied.<br />

For unfamiliar choices, individuals make up a decision rule at the moment they<br />

need to use it (Bettman 1988). Of particular interest is the finding that under time<br />

constraints, some heuristics are more accurate than a normative procedure such as<br />

expected value maximization (Payne et al. 1988). In fact, real people are cognitive<br />

misers: they tend to choose in the simplest way possible (Hanemann 1994). Put to<br />

the test, our model shows that bidders and offerers are sincere boundedly rational<br />

utility maximizers. Still, they act rationally even if they operate inside a correlated<br />

equilibrium. Instead of handling affiliation of values after market prices are<br />

revealed 24 , we prefer to speak in terms of reference point adaptation and posted<br />

prices‟ weighting mechanisms.<br />

The chapter is organized as follows. Section 3.2 introduces the auction<br />

mechanisms. Section 3.3 deals with the interactions among bidders and the<br />

incentive compatibility constraints. Section 3.4 presents a method for adjusting<br />

reference points according to a sequential price weighting function. Section 3.5<br />

examines the empirical validity of such a model. Section 3.6 concludes.<br />

3.2. Auctions and incentive-compatibility<br />

The BDM mechanism (Becker et al. 1964, Shogren et al. 1994) and the<br />

random nth-price auction (Shogren et al. 2001) are two market based mechanisms<br />

24 Another restatement proposed by Morrison (2000) is the leading, which is the following of the<br />

randomly chosen exchange price.<br />

93


often used in experiments. Determination of the market clearing-price and the<br />

expected payoff, which ensues from the market price, is different in the two<br />

mechanisms. In theory, they perform the same. In practice, this assertion no<br />

longer holds true.<br />

Under BDM, an individual reports a bid for a good; a price is then<br />

exogenously and randomly drawn from a price list. If the individual bids above<br />

the price, she receives the good and pays the drawn price. If the individual bids<br />

below the price, she does not receive the good and pays nothing. The mechanism<br />

is regarded as a quasi-market mechanism, its market price being exogenously<br />

determined.<br />

Under NPA, the market price is endogenously determined. The mechanism<br />

works as follows (see Shogren et al. 2001, List 2003): each bidder submits a bid;<br />

all bids are rank-ordered; a number between 2 and n (n being the number of<br />

bidders) is randomly selected as a market-clearing price; a unit of the good is sold<br />

to each of the n � 1 highest bidders at the nth-price drawn from the bids. Because<br />

of the endogenous market price, NPA is considered to be a full-active market.<br />

Following the induced value payoff theory, whatever the auction<br />

mechanism, an individual faces the following payoff rule:<br />

�vi<br />

� p if p < bi<br />

�<br />

�0<br />

if p�bi where i v is bidder i‟s value, b i her bid, and p the market price. Whenever<br />

optimal bidding arises with bi � vi,<br />

an auction mechanism is said to be incentive-<br />

compatible. Put differently, an auction is truth-telling when the individual pays a<br />

price independent from what she bids. As Lusk and Shogren (2007) point out, the<br />

incentive to value truthfully can easily be proved.<br />

When the individual i bids, she is ignorant of the price she will pay. So she<br />

draws an estimate of the price from the probability density function fi�p � with<br />

support p , p � �<br />

�<br />

� � �<br />

and the cumulative distribution function Fi�p � where<br />

94


p , p �<br />

�� �<br />

�<br />

�<br />

corresponds to the bid. The rational individual submits a bid that<br />

i<br />

�<br />

maximizes her expected payoff which corresponds to her expected utility u i ,<br />

which is twice continuously differentiable and increasing 25 :<br />

�<br />

bip � � � � � � � � � �0� � �<br />

� �<br />

E u u v p dF p u dF p<br />

i<br />

p<br />

i i i<br />

b<br />

i i<br />

�<br />

� � � � �0� b p<br />

� �<br />

�<br />

i<br />

�<br />

� �<br />

u v p f p dp u dp<br />

p<br />

i i i<br />

b<br />

i<br />

i<br />

i<br />

�<br />

The first integral describes the expected payoff for random prices below<br />

her bid (where she expects a positive <strong>sur</strong>plus). The second integral describes the<br />

expected payoff for random prices between her bid and the maximum possible bid<br />

(where she expects a loss). The maximum over b i occurs when the derivative of<br />

� �<br />

i<br />

Eu with respect to b i is null:<br />

� �<br />

�Eu<br />

�b<br />

i<br />

i<br />

where � �<br />

� � � � 0<br />

� u v �b f b �<br />

i i i i i<br />

ui 0 � 0.<br />

When bi � vi,<br />

the probability distribution that the individual‟s<br />

bid equals the price is strictly positive or we assume positive support on p , p � �<br />

�<br />

� � � .<br />

The individual maximizes her expected utility when she bids her true value.<br />

In BDM, the market-clearing price is drawn from a uniform distribution<br />

with the probability density function f � p � and a cumulative distribution function<br />

F�p � . Bidders have different values but face the same price which is modeled as<br />

the mean of the price distribution in the support of b i . The probability of winning<br />

the auction given i‟s bid is F�b i � . Taking her bid as given, the price that i expects<br />

to pay conditional upon winning is:<br />

25 Assumptions that satisfy the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function.<br />

95<br />

[1]<br />

[2]


� �<br />

� �<br />

bi<br />

f p<br />

f � p p < bi � � � p dp<br />

[3a]<br />

�� F b<br />

i<br />

Then her expected utility is her expected payoff:<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

� bi<br />

f p �<br />

E�� i � ��vi�� p dp�F�bi� [3b]<br />

��<br />

�� F bi<br />

��<br />

In NPA with n bidders, one of the bidders‟ values, from the uniform<br />

distribution 26 with PDF g�v � and CDF G�v � , is independently drawn at random<br />

and set as the market price. Conditional on v i being the nth value, the chance that<br />

a bid from the opponents is drawn as the n-order statistic is � 1�<br />

96<br />

n� n.<br />

The<br />

probability of winning given i‟s bid is Gb � i � . Taking her bid as given, the price<br />

that i expects to pay conditional upon winning is:<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

n �1<br />

� bi<br />

g v �<br />

g � p v < bi � � � v dv<br />

n � �<br />

[4a]<br />

��<br />

�� G bi<br />

��<br />

Her expected utility is her expected payoff:<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

1 i<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

b � n � g v �<br />

E �i<br />

��vi� v dv G bi<br />

n � �<br />

[4b]<br />

��<br />

�� G bi<br />

��<br />

The BDM and NPA are proved to be incentive-compatible (Kahneman et<br />

al. 1990, Shogren et al. 2001b). Lusk et al. (2007) analyze the cost of<br />

misbehaving or deviating from truthful bidding in terms of foregone expected<br />

earnings, and show that suboptimal bidding has equivalent effects for BDM and<br />

NPA. For a uniform distribution of values, the incentive to bid their value is<br />

26 This time, the distribution comes from others‟ bids, not from a price list.


identical for both high- and low-type individuals, engaging all bidders to valuate<br />

truthfully.<br />

Let<br />

*<br />

� i be individual i‟s optimal payoff, which is achieved when an<br />

individual submits a bid equal to her value. Consider a bidder with a valuation<br />

slightly above or under v i . The deviation is profitable only if deviating is costless.<br />

The expected cost of deviating from bi � vi<br />

to bi�vi� �i<br />

, with � i >0,<br />

is given by<br />

ˆ � i :<br />

� � *<br />

E �� ˆ �i vi , bi , �i ���E� ��ivi, v � i ��E���ivi,<br />

vi<br />

��<br />

i ��<br />

Equation [5] represents the expected loss of an individual who does not bid<br />

her true value. It is a non-negative number that equals zero when �i � 0 . For both<br />

the BDM and NPA, the derivative of the expected cost of deviating with respect to<br />

� i at the point where vi bi<br />

� ˆ �<br />

�E<br />

�<br />

��<br />

i<br />

i v �b<br />

i i<br />

� 0<br />

� yields:<br />

Equation [6] states that only bidding sincerely is costless. If a bidder<br />

deviates and bids above her value, she may increase her chance of winning the<br />

auction, but her payoff will be negative even if she wins the auction. If a bidder<br />

deviates and bids under her value, she loses the auction and has zero payoff,<br />

which means that she loses the chance of winning the auction with some positive<br />

payoff. It is useful to think of the magnitude of deviation at the disposal of the<br />

bidder, which is the difference between her value and the highest bid. This would<br />

be the amount by which she could reduce her bid and still take part to the trades,<br />

or increase her bid to augment her chances of winning without supporting<br />

negative payoffs, once the distribution of high bids is known.<br />

97<br />

[5]<br />

[6]


In spite of the theoretical incentive-compatibility equivalence between<br />

elicitation mechanisms that employ endogenous and exogenous clearing prices,<br />

empirical evidence suggests that the two approaches generate divergent results. If<br />

the market price is based upon the preferences of other bidders, the risk of<br />

deviating from truthful bidding comes out. It is hard to distinguish between<br />

refining and copying, not only for experimentalists but for bidders too.<br />

3.3. Interactive incentive-compatibility<br />

Standard game models prescribe dominant strategies. Each individual has<br />

beliefs about the types of other individuals, how each individual values the good,<br />

and these beliefs are independent rational expectations, so the individuals‟ bidding<br />

strategies are constrained not to evolve. Indeed, incentive-compatibility requires<br />

that truth telling is best averaged over the types of other bidders in the auction.<br />

Incentive-compatibility constraints guarantee that it is optimal for the<br />

bidder to make a bid (send a signal to announce her type) truthfully. Let us<br />

consider two bidders i � 1,2 with unit demands, which are ex ante identical. Their<br />

valuations v 1 and 2<br />

v are independent, that is, each bidder‟s beliefs about the type<br />

of the other bidder are independent of the other bidder‟s belief distribution. Let b 1<br />

and 2 b denote the outcomes of the bidders‟ strategies � 1 and � 2 . The auction<br />

mechanism specifies the probability � , �<br />

*<br />

*<br />

p �b , b � . Let � �� � and � �<br />

i<br />

1 2<br />

1<br />

2<br />

f b b that the good is carried by i at price<br />

i<br />

1 2<br />

� � denote Bayesian Nash equilibrium strategies in<br />

the auction mechanism. For bidder 1, the rationality constraint is that, for each 1 v<br />

and for each 1<br />

v *<br />

2 �2<br />

v2<br />

*<br />

b belonging to the support of � � v<br />

� � 1 1 � 1 2 � 1 � 1 2 �<br />

98<br />

� :<br />

E E ��vfb, b � p b , b ��<br />

�0<br />

[7]<br />

1 1<br />

The rationality constraint en<strong>sur</strong>es that the bidder is willing to participate in<br />

the auction only in the case of nonnegative payoffs, since withdrawing from the


auctioning gives her null expected payoff. The probability distribution can be<br />

understood in different ways. Provided that bidder 1 controls 1<br />

99<br />

b but not 2<br />

b , we<br />

can think of a bidder as choosing a conditional probability distribution f1 �b1 b 2 � ,<br />

where b 2 has some exogenous probability distribution. Another interpretation is<br />

that � , �<br />

f b b is the result of a very complicated information mechanism by<br />

1 1 2<br />

which the bidder learns and updates her beliefs about b 2 . Finally, it can be<br />

understood as bidder i‟s actions over time.<br />

The incentive-compatibility constraint is such that, for each 1<br />

*<br />

the support of � � v<br />

ˆb :<br />

1 1 � and each deviation 1<br />

�<br />

� � 1 1 � 1, 2 � � 1 � 1, 2 ��� � � 1 1 � ˆ<br />

1, 2 � � 1 � ˆ<br />

1, v v<br />

2 �<br />

* *<br />

2 �222 �22<br />

v , each 1<br />

b in<br />

Ev E v f b b p b b Ev E �vfbbpbb� � � � � [8]<br />

The left-hand side of the constraint is the expected payoff if she reports her<br />

true bid b 1 , and the right-hand side of this constraint is the expected payoff if she<br />

deviates and reports 1<br />

ˆb . The idea here is that when bidder 1 bids 1<br />

ˆb instead of b 1 ,<br />

her payoff changes but the resulting probability distribution over b 2 does not<br />

change, since she cannot control b 2 , and hence she gets a different expected<br />

payoff. The incentive-compatibility constraint asserts that her expected payoff<br />

from honesty is not less than her expected payoff from deviating, i.e. by deviating<br />

she cannot gain more. The same applies to bidder 2. If the two bidders announce<br />

untruthful types � ˆ<br />

1, ˆ<br />

2�<br />

� � * *<br />

� �v �, � �v �<br />

b b , the probability of winning the auction is:<br />

fˆ bˆ , bˆ � E ��fb, b ��<br />

[9]<br />

� � � �<br />

1 1 2 2<br />

i 1 2 i 1 2<br />

The expected price is:


� ˆ ˆ � * *<br />

� �v �, � �v �<br />

pˆ b , b � E ��pb, b ��<br />

[10]<br />

� � � �<br />

1 1 2 2<br />

i 1 2 i 1 2<br />

The incentive-compatibility constraint en<strong>sur</strong>es that a Bayesian Nash<br />

equilibrium for both bidders is to announce the truth ( ˆv1 v1<br />

Regardless of how � , �<br />

i<br />

1 2<br />

100<br />

ˆv � v ).<br />

� and 2 2<br />

f b b occurs, if it violates the incentive-compatibility<br />

constraint, the bidder is not maximizing her expected payoff.<br />

Hausch (1986) asserts that an individual has an incentive to underbid in<br />

sequential auctions, i.e. to provide misleading information about her valuation of<br />

the good in the first round to deceive her opponents, in order to secure winning in<br />

the second round. Jeitschko (1998) demonstrates that bidders face a trade-off<br />

between increasing the probability of winning the early auction and increasing<br />

expected payoffs in the later auction. As a corollary, bidders place lower bids in<br />

the early auction, because they are aware of the learning effects.<br />

However, there is a strong information requirement. Each bidder must<br />

know the distribution of types of all the other bidders as well as the ability to<br />

determine the Nash strategies of every other bidder in the auction. In practice,<br />

equilibrium computation is usually infeasible. Moreover, the distribution over the<br />

possible types of n individuals in repeated-round auctions is complex and makes<br />

the space of types go of hand. One could calculate the equilibrium, but in the<br />

absence of common knowledge of type space and prior beliefs, it is unlikely to<br />

expect it (Saran and Serrano 2007). As a consequence, it is pragmatic to stress that<br />

individuals observe how others value the good, and some kind of equilibrium<br />

emerges (Boutilier et al. 2000) 27 .<br />

Theorists assume incentive-compatibility in the strict case of independent<br />

private values, which means that the individual‟s value is independently drawn<br />

from a commonly known distribution. In this case, the individual has only a prior<br />

on her signal. The setting of independent private values is reasonable for domains<br />

in which individuals‟ valuations are unrelated to each other, depending only on<br />

their signals. But when the bidder‟s valuation depends on both her signal and<br />

27 Recent literature shifts the analysis to the ex post equilibrium so any type space fits.


others‟ signals, those signals are likely to be affiliated: a phenomenon known as<br />

affiliated values pioneered by Milgrom and Weber (1982) 28 . For example, if a<br />

signal from an individual is a high value, this will increase the probability that<br />

other individuals will have high signals as well. As a consequence, a higher value<br />

for one bidder makes higher values for other bidders more likely (Kagel 1995).<br />

Values are drawn from an affiliated distribution if the posted price – which serves<br />

to signal the relative value of the good – shifts bids‟ distribution. Corrigan and<br />

Rousu (2006) make a distinction between bid affiliation and value affiliation, and<br />

prefer the bid affiliation as a broader concept. According to them, positive<br />

correlation between bids may not be caused by positive correlation between<br />

values: experimentalists observing bids, bid affiliation is a more relevant concept.<br />

When individuals actively interrelate, such as under NPA, they cannot<br />

circumvent estimating the probability distributions over maximal bids of other<br />

bidders and their chances of winning the auction given their true value. If the<br />

individual observes that others‟ bids are higher than her own, she learns she has<br />

little chance of winning the auction. In this case, the literature shows that<br />

individuals tend to submit higher bids afterwards (Fox et al. 1998, Cummings and<br />

Taylor 1999, List 2001). Likewise, Corrigan and Rousu (2006) experimentally<br />

find that posted prices have a statistically and economically significant impact on<br />

bids submitted in subsequent rounds. Furthermore, according to their study, the<br />

bidder‟s propensity to increase her bid is independent of her initial bid.<br />

Individuals combine their own signal with the signals received from<br />

others, which creates affiliation between values or bids (Klemperer 1999). For that<br />

reason, their value is given by:<br />

vi ��ti��� t<br />

i�j j<br />

[11]<br />

28<br />

Let x � x x �<br />

� be the vector of signals observed by the bidders. Let there be another vector<br />

1 ,..., n<br />

of signals containing information important to value the good. Bidders‟ values for the good are<br />

affiliated if v u �s, x�<br />

� . Otherwise, that is v � x , bidders‟ values of the good are privately and<br />

i i<br />

i i<br />

independently distributed.<br />

101


where t i is bidder i‟s signal, t j is j‟s signal, � is the weight assigned to i‟s signal<br />

and � the weight assigned to j‟s signal, with � � � . It is non-realistic to believe<br />

that individual i ignores others‟ signals. Her private value does not remain<br />

independent thus � � �0,1� . Finally, the individual does not bid her true value, and<br />

her over- or underbidding depends on the magnitude of � . Since the individual<br />

does not know other bidders‟ signals, she forms expectations on them.<br />

Learning preferences by repeating bidding is part of the methodological<br />

consensus. However, learning may also provoke unintended effects that challenge<br />

stricto sensu the constraints of incentive-compatibility. The reasoning is quite<br />

intuitive. An individual is given an initial endowment she uses as a reference to<br />

submit her bid. She reveals her value upon her preferences and this initial amount.<br />

Provided that a randomly selected round is chosen as the binding round in<br />

experimental repeated-round auctions, the individual bids in reference to the same<br />

endowment at the beginning of each round. In theory, this cannot compromise the<br />

property of demand-revealing. Nevertheless, she is told all the bids and the market<br />

price before submitting her bid in the next round, and revealing their distribution<br />

provokes an adaptive bidding behavior. Indeed, the individual extracts<br />

information on value perception from price formation in the auction, and price<br />

posting makes her update her values iteratively without fear of deviation.<br />

It is hard to believe that the process by which an individual maximizes her<br />

expected utility is one of assigning an independent value to the good after market<br />

information has been revealed. Assuming independent distributions implies that<br />

the individual is assumed to reason as if the bids for subsequent rounds were<br />

issued from independent beliefs. In other words, such a basic bidder is insensitive<br />

to strategic implications of varying � i in [5] and to the information content of t in<br />

[11]. Indeed, even if signals are mostly irrelevant to the payoffs, it is hard to<br />

exclude the possibility that they may find themselves into the equilibrium, which<br />

suggests existence of a correlated equilibrium (Aumann 1974). Moreover,<br />

Bayesian rational players play a correlated equilibrium as long the Harsanyi<br />

102


common prior assumption is verified (Aumann 1987) 29 . We think that the<br />

individual builds a bidding policy by which her bid is conditioned on the outcome<br />

of earlier rounds. Henceforth, the uncertainty is over opponents‟ bids. With an<br />

endogenous market-clearing price, the individual forms beliefs on the unknown<br />

distribution of the highest bid according to others‟ preferences. Her uncertainty<br />

over the parameters of this distribution is reflected by her prior distribution over<br />

the probability space of bid distributions. But, the use of equilibrium to describe<br />

the uncertainty relies on the existence of a type space as common knowledge,<br />

which is an important limitation.<br />

3.4. The behavioral model<br />

Consider dynamic settings where bidders interact repeatedly. We call a<br />

rule of behavior an adaptive heuristic. Invariably making the same choice is a sort<br />

of heuristic but not an adaptive one, since it is not responsive to a situation. At<br />

each stage, a bidder plays a strategy which is optimal against the distribution of<br />

the past actions of other bidders. Adaptive heuristics are boundedly rational<br />

strategies 30 . However, in the long run, such simple strategies yield highly<br />

sophisticated and rational behavior (Hart 2005).<br />

Now consider an individual who is aware of the strategic implications<br />

inbuilt in the auction, such as the effects of varying expectations on the adjacency<br />

of potential opponents‟ values to hers. We believe that instead of using a single<br />

bidding policy at every round, individuals use the distribution of bids they‟ve<br />

observed at earlier rounds to update their bidding policy and their estimate of the<br />

true distribution of high bids. Their bidding strategy in the next round is based on<br />

the updated distributions and all individuals play a Nash equilibrium in a Bayesian<br />

29 Common prior only requires the bidders‟ mutual beliefs on the fundamentals of the interaction<br />

be elicited, like expected payoffs entailed by the possible actions.<br />

30 Learning dynamics are levels of full rationality, whereas evolutionary dynamics are completely<br />

irrational actions. Adaptive heuristics are in-between.<br />

103


manner 31 . If the individual updates her bidding policy based on past observations,<br />

her true bids at early rounds are not reflective of the bids she submits at latter<br />

rounds, which means she is learning based on observations drawn from a<br />

nonstationary distribution. It has been shown that myopic learning models such as<br />

fictitious play – which is an adaptive heuristic – converge to a stationary<br />

distribution despite the initial nonstationarity (Fudenberg and Levine 1998). In a<br />

fictitious play, the individual is enabled to learn if she can realistically win the<br />

auction given her true value. She learns by observing the history of past bids –<br />

prior to the beginning of the next round – and forms a belief about her opponents‟<br />

bids in the next period. She believes that her opponents are using a stationary<br />

strategy which is the empirical distribution of past bids, and thus updates her<br />

beliefs, her best reply and bid, computing a new bidding policy based on earlier<br />

outcomes. Although truth-telling is theoretically proved to be optimal, computing<br />

optimal bids as best replies defies the assumption of true valuation 32 .<br />

Instead of using these learning models, let us introduce a descriptive<br />

behavioral model based upon reference point adaptation. We introduce a parallel<br />

model to rank-dependent expected utility, because we consider agents to derive<br />

utility from changes in wealth relative to their reference point. If an agent<br />

perceives her payoff to be higher than the reference point, she perceives a gain;<br />

and perceives a loss, otherwise. We exploit the idea of linear and non-linear<br />

probability weighting and propose a sequential information weighting because we<br />

assume that strategic bidders convert objective linear weighting into subjective<br />

nonlinear decision weights.<br />

In this case, let us assume that bidders adjust their starting values.<br />

Anchoring-and-adjustment is a heuristic that influences the way individuals<br />

intuitively assess probabilities. According to this process, individuals start with a<br />

31 In the long run, irrational behavior can lead to Bayesian rationality (Aumann 1987).<br />

32 Shlomit et al. (1998) analyze a repeated first-price auction in which the types of the players are<br />

determined before the first round and do not vary in time. When each player uses a fictitious play<br />

learning scheme, the equilibrium vector of bids is the same as in a one-shot auction with the types<br />

of players being common knowledge. However, their players are too basic for they do not attempt<br />

to learn their opponents‟ types or to hide their own types.<br />

104


eference point (the anchor) and make adjustments to it to reach their estimate 33<br />

(Tversky and Kahneman 1974). In the case of repeated one-shot auctions, their<br />

true value is a reference point that bidders discovered in time, i.e. people use<br />

practice rounds to refine their values with regard to their vague or naïve start.<br />

Deviation from true value is then an adjustment from the self-generated anchor in<br />

order to win the auction in the late rounds. When bidders long to increase either<br />

their payoffs or their probability of winning the auction, given that a rational agent<br />

is programmed to maximize her payoff, deviating can be considered rational.<br />

The reference point is formed after observing the last posted price. The<br />

bidder thus makes her bid in i � 1 according to i<br />

or i i 1<br />

105<br />

r . Depending on whether pi> ri� 1<br />

p < r� , she scales her bid up and down, respectively. The adaptation of the<br />

reference point corresponds to the following phase diagram:<br />

r0 p0<br />

� 1 r 2 p 2 r<br />

p1<br />

p1 r0<br />

� p2 � r1<br />

Arkes et al. (2008) term the adaptation of the reference point the rule<br />

where bidders shift their reference point in the direction of a realized outcome. If<br />

the reference point is 0 r and the price is 1 p , the difference between 1 p and 0 r<br />

should be equal to the difference between 2 p and 1 r , or p1 r0 p2 r1<br />

� � � . This is<br />

standard rationality. It is due to the linear shape of the utility function where<br />

bidders are indifferent to rank-dependence. We term this the uniform or linear<br />

adaptation of the reference point. If the utility function v is linear, the reference<br />

point is a weighted average of posted prices. With p0 � r0<br />

as the anchor in a<br />

fictitious period i � 0 , the next bid is formulated along with:<br />

33 Einhorn and Hogarth (1985) have also considered the anchoring-and-adjustment process to<br />

describe how people make judgements under ambiguity; their adjustment is made according to<br />

some probability p which could come from any distribution.<br />

� 0 � 0


1 n<br />

ri � � w<br />

i 1 i p<br />

� i<br />

[12]<br />

i<br />

ˆ ˆ<br />

The expected gain of deviating or adapting the reference point from b1 � v1<br />

ˆ � :<br />

to b1 � v1,<br />

conditional on 2 b is given by 1<br />

� �<br />

E �ˆ �1 b1, bˆ ˆ<br />

1, v �<br />

2 �E��1b1, b �<br />

2 �E���1b1, b2<br />

�<br />

� � � �<br />

�<br />

106<br />

[13]<br />

There are several competing notions of rationality, and one among them is<br />

the correlated equilibrium, which has the advantage of being reasonable, simple<br />

and is guaranteed always to exist. The rationality constraint says that a bidder has<br />

no reason to bid in case of null payoff. Since losing in auctioning means absence<br />

of payoff, increasing the probability of winning the auction and consequently the<br />

chance of earning some positive payoff by deviating is rational. In parallel, a<br />

rational bidder seeks to maximize her payoff which is the difference between her<br />

value and the cost of the item. If by deviating, a bidder increases her expected<br />

payoff with some extra gain, she is acting rationally.<br />

In terms of interactions between two players, the deviation of player 1 is<br />

such that, for all b 1 and 1<br />

ˆb in � � v<br />

1 1 � and all 2 2<br />

ˆ b , b in � � v � :<br />

2 2<br />

� � � ˆ<br />

1 1,2 1, ˆ<br />

2 � � � ˆ<br />

1 1, ˆ<br />

2 � � � � 1 1,2 � 1, ˆ<br />

2 � � 1 � ˆ<br />

1, v v<br />

2 �<br />

Ev E �v f b b p b b � E<br />

2 2 2 v E �v f b b p b b �<br />

� � � 2 �22��<br />

[14]<br />

If joint distribution 1,2<br />

f with � ˆ ˆ<br />

v �<br />

1 v f<br />

2 1,2 b1 b2<br />

� � , � 1 is a correlated strategy,<br />

equilibrium is achieved when no player ignores the public signal, which is to<br />

make an expected gain from deviating with some positive probability, given that<br />

others follow this rule as well. This implies that deviating is worthwhile only if a<br />

public signal such as a posted price recommends doing so and all submit to it<br />

because the suggested strategy is the best in expectation. The right hand-side<br />

expression is when player 1 is the only one not to follow the recommendation


issued from the public signal and chooses some bid b 1 instead of ˆb 1 , provided the<br />

endogeneity of the market-clearing price.<br />

Proposition 3.1.: When bidders follow the public recommendation leading them<br />

to rationally deviate from their anchor, there exists a correlated equilibrium.<br />

Proof: In the appendix.<br />

The incentive-compatibility constraint en<strong>sur</strong>es that truthful bidding<br />

maximizes utility. Let us now consider this point. Following the work on rank<br />

dependent expected utility (Bleichrodt and Pinto 2000) and reference point<br />

adaptation (Arkes et al. 2008, Baucells et al. 2008), we introduce a model of<br />

sequential decision analysis. First, let us recall the existing decision theoretic<br />

background.<br />

According to cumulative prospect theory (Tversky and Kahneman 1992),<br />

people weight outcomes when they choose between lotteries. Let<br />

�� , p ; � , p ;...; � , p ; � , p �<br />

1 1 2 2 n�1n� 1 n n be a lottery that yields outcome i<br />

probability i<br />

107<br />

p with<br />

� . A lottery can be defined as a set of n outcomes � p , p ,..., p , p �<br />

with respective probability �� , � ,..., � , � �<br />

1 2 n� 1 n<br />

1 2 n� 1 n<br />

. The rank-dependent expected utility<br />

of this lottery is a junction between the value or utility function v�� � and the<br />

weighting function w :<br />

n<br />

�� , ; � , ;...; � , ; � , � � �<br />

v p p p p � � v p w<br />

[15]<br />

where<br />

1 1 2 2 n�1n�1nn i�1<br />

i i<br />

i i�1<br />

� � 1 � � � 1 �1<br />

�<br />

� � [16]<br />

w �w�w i i i


in particular w � w���. The weighting function w is increasing with � �<br />

1 1<br />

and w�1�� 1.<br />

It is a function of the cumulative distribution at i<br />

108<br />

� and i 1<br />

w 0 � 0<br />

� � . If w is<br />

an identity transformation and corresponds to a positive linear transformation of<br />

v , the rank-dependent expected utility theory is equivalent to the expected utility<br />

theory. In this case, bidders are considered rational: they have linear or uniform<br />

preferences for money, separately from the rank position. Tversky and Kahneman<br />

(1992) rather take w�� � as nonlinear, that is, a monotonic s-shaped function,<br />

which implies deviations from linearity and irrationality because of insensitivity<br />

to or misperceiving of mean probabilities. That takes the form as follows:<br />

w<br />

�� �<br />

�<br />

�<br />

�<br />

� � ��<br />

1<br />

� � �<br />

� � 1��<br />

[17]<br />

for 0< � � i for i close to 1 or n.<br />

By analogy, we assume that bidders weight all the sequential information<br />

at their disposal to build their bidding strategy, in particular their anchor and the<br />

posted market-clearing prices. Bidders start with an outcome p0 � r0<br />

which is<br />

their original reference point and which corresponds to their subjective and asocial<br />

valuation of a good. Put differently, their first reference point is their value after<br />

the practice rounds: a true value issued from discovered preference hypothesis. In<br />

repeated-round auctions, bidders are told the market-clearing price – which can be<br />

endogenous to the bids – before submitting their next bid, so all posted prices<br />

correspond to subsequent outcomes of the outcome set.<br />

Instead of ordering outcomes from worst �i � 1�<br />

to best �i n�<br />

� as in<br />

cumulative prospect theory, we assume that bidders sort the outcomes backwards,<br />

from the latest to the anchor, according to pi� pn�� i 1,<br />

with i being the rank of the<br />

round. Posted prices arrive following the sequence of rounds. Therefore, the price<br />

vector is sequentially sorted. By analogy to the probability weighting function


(Einhorn and Hogarth 1985, Tversky and Wakker 1995), we assume a sequential<br />

price weighting function, such that bidders give a weight of 1/n to each price, with<br />

n the length of the price sequence. We define the sequential rank-dependent<br />

function.<br />

Definition 3.1.: W � A� � W �B� whenever A� B.<br />

If W is additive, i.e.<br />

W � A� B� �W � A� � W � B�<br />

for all disjoint outcomes A and B , then it is a<br />

weighting mea<strong>sur</strong>e. A sequential price weighting mea<strong>sur</strong>e is a strictly increasing<br />

function w: �0,1� � �0,1� with w�0�� 0 and � �<br />

109<br />

w 1 � 1.<br />

A weighting mea<strong>sur</strong>e W<br />

on P , with P the outcome space, is a function whose components are included in<br />

�0,1 � such that W ���� 0 and W�P�� 1.<br />

Bidders rank prices following the mirror reflection. Henceforth, the<br />

sequential sorting is: � p , p ,..., p , p � � p , p ,..., p , p �<br />

accumulated such that:<br />

��n �n�1 �2 �1<br />

�<br />

� . Ranks are then<br />

1 2 n�1nnn�121 �121� , ,..., , : �� , ,...,1 � ,1�<br />

�nnn� [18]<br />

where 1/n corresponds to the weight of the latest posted price, and the last<br />

increment corresponds to the weight of the anchor. A sequential weighting<br />

function is introduced to transform the ranks into cumulative decision weights:<br />

� 1 � � 2 � � 1 �<br />

�w�� n�, w�� n�1�,...,<br />

w�� 2 �, w��1 ��<br />

: � w� �, w� �,..., w�1 � �,<br />

w�1�<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

� � n � � n � � n � � [19]<br />

Following [16], the weighting factor is an increment between two rounds 34 :<br />

34 Uniform or linear weighting results as a special case, and we have<br />

� � � 1 � �1 �<br />

w i n � w i � n � w n for all i.


�� � �� �1<br />

�<br />

� i � � i�1�<br />

wi � w i � w i : � w� � � w�<br />

� , i� 1,..., n<br />

[20]<br />

� n��n �<br />

The cumulative prospect theory suggests an s-shaped weighting function<br />

that overweighs extreme outcomes which occur with small probabilities and<br />

underweighs average outcomes which occur with high probabilities. In lieu of this<br />

point, we assume that bidders overweight the beginning and the end of time<br />

series 35 . Indeed, one reference point in the context of stock investment is the<br />

starting point which enjoys a privileged role (Spranca et al. 1991). As well,<br />

investors partially update their reference point after a stimulus is presented to a<br />

price between the purchase price and the current price, but they do it incompletely<br />

(Chen and Rao 2002) 36 .<br />

The sequential weighting function presented in Fig. 3.1. is s-shaped: it is<br />

steep near 0 and 1 and mild in-between. Thus, a low interval �0,1 n � and a high<br />

��11 ,1��<br />

interval ��<br />

n�<br />

have more impact than a middle interval 1 n,1�1n� �<br />

110<br />

�� ��<br />

.<br />

To compute her next bid, the bidder takes into account a reference point,<br />

and adjusts her estimates upon the weighted sequential price vector. If the posted<br />

price is higher than her latest reference point, she revises her value and her bid<br />

upwards to increase her chance of winning the auction, given that she learns that<br />

she earns a null payoff with her previous bid: where she does not maximize any<br />

utility. This could simply mean that she has a higher reservation price for a good<br />

than the bid she posted in the first round. If the posted price is lower than her<br />

latest reference point, she will revise her value and her bid downwards in order to<br />

35 We are drawn to the s-shaped decision-weighting function partly because of convenience to<br />

represent some non-linear weighting.<br />

36 Another reference point used by individuals is the historical peak (Gneezy 2005) and<br />

expectations about future outcomes (Koszegi and Rabin 2006).


augment her payoff, as she learns that she can deviate and still take part to the<br />

trades: where she maximizes her expected gain and accordingly her utility 37 .<br />

Fig. 3.1. The sequential price weighting function<br />

As we can see, introducing the sequential price weighting function<br />

modulates the linear or uniform adaptation of the reference point. In point of fact,<br />

w is s-shaped, so the latest posted price and the anchor will most impact the<br />

valuation of the reference point. Their respective weights amount w�1n � and<br />

� � ��<br />

1�w 1� 1 n . The rest is distributed among the in-between, that is,<br />

�1 �1 ��<br />

�1 �<br />

w � n � w n .<br />

� �<br />

�1� � 1��1� w w n<br />

�1��1��� �1 �<br />

w n w n<br />

�1 � � �0� w n w<br />

This model lies between evolutionary dynamics and adaptive heuristics. In<br />

the evolutionary literature, inertia means that the bidder will invariably repeat a<br />

bid in i � 1 she used in i. If her bid is sincere, it implies that she is always bidding<br />

truthfully. In our case, she will adjust her bid in the direction of the last posted<br />

price, and an adaptive rule based on the posted prices has an important component<br />

of heuristics. Since we are dealing with posted prices issued from others‟ bids,<br />

37 Aumann has argued that rationality should be examined in the context of rules rather than acts,<br />

i.e. rules of behavior that are better to other rules.<br />

0 1�1 n 1<br />

1 n � �<br />

111


linear or uniform weighting supposed to reveal rationality (Van de Kuilen 2009)<br />

no longer holds. Bidders with well-defined preferences exploit the market<br />

mechanism to discover their true preferences. If their preferences satisfy standard<br />

theoretical requirements, the discovered preference hypothesis implies that<br />

irrationality is the results of individuals‟ errors, and these can be reduced by<br />

market experience. However, only later market trials can reveal their true<br />

preferences. According to this rationale, when the bidder has discovered her value,<br />

moving from it becomes irrational. In fact, because the bidder has discovered her<br />

preferences, adjusting her bid upon posted prices cannot be considered rational,<br />

for truth-telling is rational and affiliating private values on public signaling is not.<br />

Although we accept the model of discovered preferences, because we consider it<br />

to reveal the anchor, we believe that bidders can partially adapt their reference<br />

point according to posted prices and still be sincere.<br />

We thus model the concept of inertia as high weighting of the anchor,<br />

which stands for truthful bidding and high regard to freshly discovered<br />

preferences. Adjustment means adaptive rule based on adaptation of the reference<br />

point in the direction of the posted price. It helps a bidder to maximize her<br />

expected payoff, which is after all the only purpose that matters to rationality.<br />

From the above, the two components simply suggest that sincere bidders are<br />

boundedly rational. Once a bidder has discovered her preferences, she is<br />

considered insincere only if she scales her references point upon the posted prices<br />

issued from others‟ bids with uniform sequential weighting, i.e. null inertia, where<br />

her anchor – a result of discovered preferences hypothesis – would be drowned by<br />

the sequence of posted prices. The following proposition comes into existence.<br />

Proposition 3.2.: A bidder is truth-telling inasmuch as she behaves as a<br />

(boundedly rational) utility maximizer 38 , i.e. so long as she bids pursuant to the<br />

sequential s-shaped weighting function.<br />

Proof: In the appendix.<br />

38<br />

This can be connected to the equation [11] where � � � .<br />

112


The correlation between bids comes from the commonly observed history<br />

of play and each bidder‟s actions are determined by the history. Uniform<br />

weighting means that at round i each bidder knows the history of the repeated<br />

one-shot auction; that is, each bidder uniformly considers all prices that were<br />

posted in all previous rounds. We consider bidders to be sincere if they have<br />

limited memory and confine their reference point adaptation to their anchor and<br />

the latest posted price. S-shaped weighting mechanism reflects such a bidding<br />

strategy 39 .<br />

Our model predicts that different-type bidders will pursue a similar rule as<br />

they get into interactions via endogenous market-clearing prices, no matter what<br />

their anchors are. Of course, preferences are no longer invariable in time due to<br />

the local weighting function, but this guarantees the high weight given to freshly<br />

discovered preferences. Besides, bidders still seek to maximize their expected<br />

payoff. Although bidders would orthodoxically be regarded as irrational, this<br />

model shows that sincere bidders are just boundedly rational.<br />

3.5. The empirical study<br />

Let us now test the empirical relevance of the sequential weighting<br />

function. We reprocess the home-grown data from the BDM and NPA<br />

experimental auctions on the carbon offset (regarded as an unfamiliar good)<br />

realized by <strong>Dragicevic</strong> and Ettinger (2009). We analyze the five – out of ten – last<br />

rounds because we consider bidders and offerers to have discovered their<br />

preferences after a sufficient number of practice rounds. If bidders or offerers are<br />

to deceive and compute their bids or offers insincerely, they reasonably do it from<br />

this point of time.<br />

Under BDM, the market-clearing price is exogenously and randomly<br />

chosen from a price list, so the value of the good is worth any market-clearing<br />

39 Contrary to Dasgupta and Maskin (2000) we do not use all available information. In addition,<br />

we work with time series and accumulated ranks reflect such a sequential optimization.<br />

113


price. If every posted price is uniformly weighted, subjects are naïve. Under NPA,<br />

the market-clearing price is endogenously and randomly chosen, so the value of<br />

the good is worth anybody‟s value participating in the auction. If every posted<br />

price is uniformly weighted, subjects are insincere because they are copying<br />

others‟ values.<br />

As shown in equations 21 and 22, we correspondingly compute the<br />

following theoretical bids:<br />

� 1 i 1 �<br />

1 n<br />

bi m b pi<br />

i � � �� [21]<br />

�<br />

n�1<br />

� i�<br />

�<br />

� n�1� n�21<br />

bi � �1��h�b1��m� p<br />

1 i ��<br />

h pn<br />

[22]<br />

� n � n n<br />

We estimate bids and offers of the subsequent round according to the<br />

uniform and s-shaped reference point adaptations previously explained. We use<br />

one-parameter specification factors � m � 0.61 for moderate weighing and<br />

� � 0.69 for high weighting from Tversky and Kahneman (1992) 40 .<br />

h<br />

Table 3.1. Unitary sequential weight coefficients<br />

Round estimate Uniform weighting S-shaped weighting<br />

Anchor In-between <strong>La</strong>st Price Anchor In-between <strong>La</strong>st Price<br />

10th (5–8) 41 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.425 0.102 0.115<br />

Normalization 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.449 0.107 0.121<br />

9th (5–7) 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.448 0.122 0.138<br />

Normalization 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.471 0.128 0.145<br />

8th (5–6) 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.483 0.153 0.173<br />

Normalization 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.503 0.159 0.180<br />

7th (5–5) 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.540 0.203 0.230<br />

Normalization 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.555 0.209 0.236<br />

�<br />

40<br />

We rather use linear � �1 n�<br />

instead of power �1 n� underweighted otherwise.<br />

41 (. – .): in-between rounds.<br />

114<br />

factoring, because the anchor gets


Table 3.2. Summary statistics of the uniform and s-shaped theoretical estimates<br />

115<br />

WTP bids WTA offers<br />

Auction mechanism nth round 7 8 9 10 7 8 9 10<br />

BDM First bid or offer (5th round) 8.29 8.29 8.29 8.29 8.92 8.92 8.92 8.92<br />

<strong>La</strong>st posted price (n – 1) 1.50 5.00 6.50 13.50 1.50 5.00 6.50 13.50<br />

Average real bid or offer 8.39 8.71 8.82 8.61 9.53 9.19 8.67 8.03<br />

Average bond between two rounds 0.32 0.11 –0.21 –0.35 –0.56 –1.05<br />

Uniform bid or offer average estimate 7.92 7.20 7.06 8.15 8.13 7.35 7.18 8.25<br />

Average bond between two rounds –0.72 –0.14 1.09 0.78 –0.17 1.07<br />

t-test* of bonds between two rounds<br />

7.24 1.34 –3.87 1.19 –0.49 –5.02<br />

Average SSE 42 (uniform residual) 7.10 10.39 12.19 12.77 10.87 12.81 12.96 13.83<br />

S-shaped bid or offer average estimate 7.88 7.53 7.47 8.24 8.23 7.85 7.77 8.53<br />

Average bond between two rounds –0.35 –0.06 0.77 –0.38 –0.08 0.76<br />

t-test* of bonds between two rounds<br />

5.04 0.98 –2.98 0.08 –0.69 –4.11<br />

Average SSE (s-shaped residual) 3.85 5.49 6.62 7.33 6.56 7.17 5.90 7.04<br />

NPA First bid or offer 4.77 4.77 4.77 4.77 9.86 9.86 9.86 9.86<br />

<strong>La</strong>st posted price (n – 1) 1.50 8.51 7.84 7.03 10.00 5.00 5.88 7.96<br />

Average real bid or offer 6.18 6.12 6.85 6.72 9.17 9.14 9.23 9.37<br />

Average bond between two rounds –0.06 0.73 –0.12 –0.03 0.09 0.14<br />

Uniform bid or offer average estimate 4.14 5.33 5.83 6.04 9.11 8.09 7.65 7.71<br />

Average bond between two rounds 1.19 0.50 0.21 –1.02 –0.44 0.07<br />

t-test* of bonds between two rounds –2.41 0.67 –0.60 3.19 2.06 0.09<br />

Average SSE (uniform residual) 7.78 5.06 6.64 7.92 10.80 9.90 12.36 19.62<br />

S-shaped bid or offer average estimate 4.37 5.21 5.50 5.60 9.39 8.64 8.37 8.42<br />

Average bond between two rounds 0.84 0.29 0.10 –0.76 –0.26 0.05<br />

t-test* of bonds between two rounds<br />

–1.77 0.50 –0.40 2.66 1.42 0.10<br />

Average SSE (s-shaped residual) 6.41 4.22 5.84 6.14 8.66 6.56 7.27 14.81<br />

* H0: The difference between experimental and theoretical average bonds is zero at 5% significance.<br />

42 SSE: the sum of the squares of the residuals.


We normalize the sequential weights to one (Table 3.1.) in order to compute<br />

the reference point from which the bid or offer is figured out and to compare it to the<br />

real bid or offer (Table 3.2.). We study both the (insincere) uniform weighting and the<br />

(sincere) s-shaped weighting.<br />

Table 3.2. presents the summary statistics of the uniform and s-shaped<br />

theoretical estimates and their comparison to the experimental results of trials 7–10.<br />

The WTP market-side is analyzed as follows. If the real bid is greater than or equal to<br />

the theoretical bid, the bidder overbids regarding her reference point. If the real bid is<br />

lower than the theoretical bid, the bidder underbids regarding her reference point.<br />

When the bidder overbids, she values the good more than what her reference point<br />

suggests. She increases her chances of winning the auction but decreases her expected<br />

payoff regarding her true value. If the uniform residual is higher than the s-shaped<br />

residual, the bidder is considered insincere. The WTA market-side is analyzed as<br />

follows. If the real offer is greater than the theoretical offer, the offerer overoffers<br />

regarding her reference point. Otherwise, she underoffers. When the offerer<br />

underoffers, she values the good less than what her reference point suggests. She<br />

increases her chances of winning the auction but decreases her expected payoff<br />

regarding her true value. If the uniform residual is higher than the s-shaped residual,<br />

the offerer is considered insincere.<br />

Our first investigation reveals that within BDM, only 26% of offerers and<br />

22% of bidders stick to their discovered value. Within NPA these figures even<br />

collapse to 13% for both offerers and bidders, making the auctioning tactical until the<br />

last round. Let us now see whether agents‟ strategies are based upon market-clearing<br />

prices by looking at the average bonds in bids and offers between two rounds. Given<br />

that we believe that agents incorporate public signals into their bidding and offering<br />

strategies, we analyze the impact of posted prices on their bids and offers, i.e. their<br />

freshly discovered preferences. We thus look at Student‟s t distribution between<br />

experimental and theoretical data and regard whether they fit. With NPA and under<br />

both adaptation weightings, the theoretical bonds in bids and offers are not<br />

significantly different from the real bonds in bids and offers. The t-test fails to reject<br />

the null hypothesis that the theoretical bonds in offers and the real bonds in offers<br />

116


come from the same distribution at the p


3.3. All estimates are significant, i.e. all p-values amount less than 0.001, and all R-<br />

squares are higher than 0.9. Despite the fact that they are comparable, we find that<br />

each one of the market-sides has its own � . We do not identify � m in s-shaped<br />

weighting because the factor oscillates around zero and is not significant; therefore,<br />

bidders and offerers simply weight the anchor and the last posted-price, which proves<br />

their sincerity as well as the relevance of our descriptive model. As one notices, the<br />

regression factors we used to compute theoretical estimates are higher than those<br />

usually elicitated in the gain and loss perception. However, they are in accordance<br />

with experimental data <strong>sur</strong>passing our predictions.<br />

Table 3.3. � -factors statistics<br />

� estimate 43 Uniform weighting S-shaped weighting<br />

BDM NPA BDM NPA<br />

Bidders 1.18 (0.02) 1.24 (0.03) 1.24 (0.03) 1.16 (0.06)<br />

Offerers 1.19 (0.02) 1.17 (0.03) 1.15 (0.03) 1.21 (0.07)<br />

Let us now discuss about the implications of the differences between the<br />

uniform and s-shaped estimates and the real bids or offers. Because market-clearing<br />

prices are exogenously determined under BDM, even though the risk of a uniform<br />

reference point adaptation exists, it does not compromise the incentive-compatibility.<br />

In experiments, bidders and offerers are foreseen as sincere. At worst, they are naïve,<br />

for it is irrational to run after luck. On the WTA market-side, the average s-shaped<br />

SSE is lower than the average uniform SSE, indicating that offerers are sincere: they<br />

refine their values in time. We observe the predominance of the s-shaped weighting<br />

on the WTP market-side as well. Finally, we denote that the average SSE is higher on<br />

the offerers‟ side than on the bidders‟ side. This is due to loss aversion of three out of<br />

eighteen offerers, who systematically proposed a ceiling WTA. When we ignore<br />

them, the average SSE is similar between both market-sides.<br />

43 Standard errors in parentheses.<br />

118


Because market-clearing prices are endogenously determined under NPA, not<br />

only does the risk of a uniform reference point adaptation exist, but it compromises<br />

the incentive-compatibility of the market mechanism. Bidders and offerers are<br />

foreseen as potentially insincere. On the WTA market-side, the average s-shaped SSE<br />

is lower than the average uniform SSE, suggesting that the offerers are sincere.<br />

Furthermore, the average SSE is higher on the offerers‟ side than on the bidders‟ side.<br />

This can be explained by loss aversion of two out of sixteen offerers, who proposed a<br />

ceiling WTA in each round, and by one offerer who had no stable strategy. When we<br />

ignore them, the average SSE remains above the SSE of the buyers‟ market-side, but<br />

is similar to the average SSE of the BDM sellers‟ market-side. We also observe lower<br />

average s-shaped SSE on the WTP market-side, which illustrates sincere bidding. The<br />

NPA average buyers‟ SSE is the lowest, all auction mechanisms and market-sides<br />

taken into account.<br />

At last, we notice that average WTP estimates, under both auction<br />

mechanisms, are beneath the average real bids: the real bids and offers are always<br />

higher than what the model suggests. Given that the bidders and offerers were<br />

confirmed to be sincere, we believe this is due to the reference point adaptation<br />

overstated by the combination of regret and competitive pres<strong>sur</strong>e. Indeed, theory of<br />

disappointment aversion (Horowitz 2006b) says that a bidder reports a higher value<br />

than the true one, simply because she is more disappointed from not receiving the<br />

good than from receiving it overpriced 44 . Let us recall that the WTP and WTA value<br />

mea<strong>sur</strong>es approach equality more by virtue of the steady increase of the buyers‟ bids<br />

than the weak decrease of the sellers‟ offers. When we proceed to the computation of<br />

the NPA s-shaped estimates on the WTP market-side, but consider the posted prices<br />

issued from the offers instead of the bids, not only do we obtain an average SSE of<br />

4.17 but also average WTP estimates almost equal to the real bids 45 . This unexpected<br />

result can stand for a high influence of the sellers‟ clearing prices on the bidders‟<br />

44 An alternative formulation of joy-of-winning was tested by Goeree et al. (2002) but they find that it<br />

does not add anything to the explanation of overbidding.<br />

45 This cannot hold with BDM, because the market clearing price is the same for both market-sides and<br />

because it is exogenously and randomly drawn from a known list.<br />

119


eference point adaptation. It can also mean that the WTA posted prices – unlike the<br />

WTP posted prices – incorporate a behavioral effect of loss aversion combined with<br />

competitive pres<strong>sur</strong>e, which works as a catalyst, from the very beginning. The<br />

magnitude of disappointment aversion and loss aversion would then be similar, and a<br />

way to verify it is to call to mind the likeness of � -factors between bidders and<br />

offerers. The excess in these values could be the quantitative mea<strong>sur</strong>e of the<br />

competition‟s pres<strong>sur</strong>e.<br />

To end this section, let us verify if it is worthwhile deviating such as<br />

suggested by rational deviation. We compute the percentage of expected bidders and<br />

offerers who win some positive payoff by sticking to their anchor, and the percentage<br />

of expected bidders and offerers who win some positive payoff by deviating from<br />

their anchor according to the last market-clearing price. We then do the same<br />

computation on real payoffs obtained by not deviating and deviating from the anchor.<br />

The results presented in Table 3.4. show that deviating pays, since both expected and<br />

real deviating gainers outnumber.<br />

Table 3.4. Comparison between extra expected and real winners from deviation<br />

per cent BDM WTP BDM WTA NPA WTP NPA WTA<br />

Extra expected deviant<br />

gainers 2.63 4.17 10.00 10.94<br />

Extra real deviant<br />

gainers 0.00 2.78 3.33 3.13<br />

Second, we mea<strong>sur</strong>e up the average expected payoffs with and without<br />

deviation with real payoffs with and without deviation. The results are presented in<br />

Table 3.5. We observe that deviating is in general gainful, for only BDM offerers are<br />

penalized for having moved from their anchor (they get a negative payoff on average)<br />

which is un<strong>sur</strong>prising in view of the fact that the exogenous market-clearing price<br />

makes it inevitably a naïve strategy. Within NPA, adjusting the discovered value<br />

upon posted prices paid in both expected and real scenarios.<br />

120


Table 3.5. Comparison between extra expected and real gains from deviation<br />

on average BDM WTP BDM WTA NPA WTP NPA WTA<br />

Extra expected gain<br />

from deviation 0.13 –0.36 0.72 0.09<br />

Extra real gain<br />

from deviation 0.13 –0.22 0.26 0.08<br />

3.6. Concluding remarks<br />

The validity of incentives for truthful value revelation is questioned whenever<br />

someone‟s probability of winning depends on the moves of others, such as with<br />

endogenous market-clearing price auctions. Still, should this imply that results<br />

obtained from experiments in the random nth-price auction have no meaning because<br />

of the risk of uniform reference point adaptation? It amounts to saying that<br />

experimentalists have to choose between the absence of market learning under BDM<br />

and the risk of dependence of private values that exists under NPA.<br />

In repeated-round experimental auctions, the private-value-independence<br />

assumption behind the incentive-compatibility may be unrealistic and malapropos.<br />

When bids get correlated, the observed bid for a good after a round impacts the<br />

estimated price of the good at the next round. Individuals then revise their beliefs to<br />

reflect this information. With endogenous market-clearing prices, we believe that<br />

bidders start their valuation with a naïve anchor – their first reference point – and then<br />

adjust their value using market reference points encoded in the sequential price<br />

weighting function. They sort prices from present to past and weight these prices<br />

using an s-shape function.<br />

Although quite simple and sometimes looked upon with a critical eye, our<br />

behavioral model underlines the validity of incentive-compatibility of both the BDM<br />

and NPA auction mechanisms. Contrary to conventional models, it shows that<br />

accounting for posted prices without rejecting the incentive-compatibility enables to<br />

differentiate sincere from insincere bidding or offering. Until some proper method<br />

121


enables to distinguish learning from affiliating, we believe incentive-compatibility<br />

need not be excluded in presence of reference point adaptation, as long as one verifies<br />

the heavy weighting of the anchor. We thus suggest a different form of rationality<br />

within incentive-compatibility constraints where the correlated equilibrium plays a<br />

key role.<br />

Nevertheless, the nature of the market-clearing price plays a significant role.<br />

When it is endogenous, i.e. issued from the bids of offers instead of drawn from a<br />

uniform price list, subjects tend to fix it and refine their reference point according to<br />

it, even if it is randomly chosen. In detail, our results suggest that bidders tend to<br />

overstate their bids as if posted prices were of the WTA level, because these<br />

incorporate lifting behavioral effects. Accordingly, market discipline and competition<br />

seem not only to reveal preferences and to moderate early loss aversion, but also to<br />

unveil belated disappointment aversion and competitive pres<strong>sur</strong>e which can arise<br />

when buyers interactively value an unfamiliar nonmarket good. This avenue of<br />

research requires more attention.<br />

Instead of condemning behaviors that tie in and considering the NPA<br />

mechanism as a lesser evil, we believe that the good approach is to investigate<br />

conditions under which incentive-compatibility constraints can be remade. In this<br />

case, the notion of truth, which is undeniably contingent on human perception,<br />

convention, and social experience, should be reformulated. Our model is one attempt.<br />

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126


3.8. Appendix<br />

Proof of Proposition 3.1.<br />

Let us give evidence through a numerical example that deviation in repeated-<br />

round auctions, in terms of adaptation of the reference point, is preferable.<br />

Suppose an initial reference point value r . The last posted price amounts r � 1.<br />

The bidder faces an equiprobable trend of the value, i.e. bullish r � 1 or bearish<br />

r � 1.<br />

She can update her reference point according to the last posted price.<br />

Updating a reference point equals to the average differential such as:<br />

v �<br />

�r � r �1� � 0.5�r �1� r� � 0.5�r �1� r�<br />

3<br />

Let us now compare cases with and without adaptation of the reference point. In<br />

spite of the last posted price, the reference point is not updated and remains at r .<br />

In this case, the expected value is:<br />

� 1 � 1<br />

v � ( r � r �1) � 0.5( r �1 � r) � 0.5( r �1 � r)<br />

� �1��1���0.5 � 2 � 3<br />

The reference point is updated to r � 1 due to the last posted price. In this case,<br />

the expected value is:<br />

127<br />

� � 1<br />

v � ( r �1� r �1) � 0.5( r �1� r �1) � 0.5( r �1� r �1) � 2 � 0 �1 � � 1<br />

3<br />

One can directly see that v< v, which implies a larger expected payoff by<br />

reference point updating, or rationally deviating. Therefore, adaptation of the<br />

reference point is preferred to the current state of affairs.


Consider the following payoff matrix with a mixed strategy. Now suppose a third<br />

trusted party posts the market-clearing price which reveals some public signal.<br />

Each player has an incentive to rationally deviate instead of sticking to her anchor<br />

with some positive probability, if the public signal instructs to do so, by learning<br />

she has no chance of winning any positive payoff. While each player wants to<br />

deviate and to increase her expected payoff, she hopes that the other player does<br />

not act alike, as her payoff can depend on the bid of the other player: illustrating<br />

the endogeneity of the market price. Therefore, we have:<br />

� Each player discovers alone her preferences and thus her expected payoff � .<br />

� A player deviates to increase her expected payoff to � � 1 if she finds out that<br />

her expected payoff is close to zero, but she hopes that the other player does<br />

not move from her own anchor; conversely, she expects a payoff of � � 2 if<br />

she stays while the other player deviates.<br />

� The market price comes from the bids. When a player follows the market price<br />

or v� p,<br />

she risks a null payoff because v� p� � , explaining the absence of<br />

payoff in the last cell where all bids converged.<br />

stay deviate<br />

stay � , � � � 2 , � � 1<br />

deviate � � 1,<br />

� � 2 0 , 0<br />

The third party only tells each player what she is supposed to do. There is a<br />

correlated equilibrium if no player refuses to follow the instruction. So if the row<br />

player receives the signal „deviate‟ given she has no chance to win some positive<br />

payoff, she has no incentive not to follow, because she can make a positive payoff<br />

by deviating from her anchor, which is better in expectation. The row player<br />

assigns a positive conditional probability of 0.5 to each of the two pairs of signals<br />

(stay, deviate) and (deviate, deviate). If the column player follows the same rule,<br />

the (uncorrelated) expected payoff of the mixed strategy equilibrium by:<br />

128


1 1 1<br />

� � � � 2 � 2� � 2 � � � 1<br />

2 2 2<br />

- staying is: � � � � � �<br />

1 1 1<br />

� �1 � 0 � � �1 � 0.5� � 0.5<br />

2 2 2<br />

- deviating is : � � � � � �<br />

The expected payoff must be positive, that is, the row player‟s expected gain of<br />

staying must verify � >1,<br />

whereas her expected gain of deviating must verify<br />

� > � 1.<br />

Therefore, she is better-off by deviating, meaning that she is better-off by<br />

seeking the higher expected payoff. The game being symmetrical, the column<br />

player has no incentive not to follow her instruction either. We know that a player<br />

will never refuse to follow the recommendation resulting from the public signal in<br />

case of higher expected payoff.<br />

If we now look at the correlated equilibrium, as there is necessarily one, it yields<br />

probabilities of ⅓ to each combination that yields some positive outcome. In this<br />

case, the expected payoff verifies � greater than ⅓, which in return weakly<br />

dominates the strategy of staying (sticking to the anchor). Provided that expected<br />

payoffs are increased, each player takes the public price into account, making the<br />

decisions correlated and bids follow the same trend, which induces „affiliation of<br />

values‟ in view of the standard rationality. �<br />

Proof of Proposition 3.2.<br />

Then, let us show that a bidder who updates her reference point is sincere if she<br />

assigns a high weight on the anchor or she is subject to high inertia. Suppose a<br />

low-type bidder value and posted market-clearing prices issued from high-type<br />

bidders, such that market prices are greater than the anchor. For the purpose, let us<br />

once again take a numerical example. Assume a weight of 0.69 for the anchor and<br />

the last posted price and a weight of 0.61 for the in-between, after the losses and<br />

129


gains factors in Tversky and Kahenman (1992). Assume there are five rounds at<br />

stake.<br />

With an unnormalized uniform weighting, we obtain the following cumulative<br />

weighting:<br />

� 1��1��1��1��1��1� 0.61� � �0.61� � �0.61� � �0.61� � �0.61� � �0.61�<br />

�<br />

� 6��6��6��6��6��6� last price in-between posted prices anchor<br />

� 6� 0.102 � 0.610<br />

As one can see, each round receives an equal weight, which means that the anchor<br />

is drowned in time by the sequence of posted prices.<br />

With an unnormalized s-shaped weighting, we obtain the following cumulative<br />

weighting:<br />

� � 1 � � � � 1 � � 1 �� � � 1 ��<br />

�0.69� � � 0� � �0.61�1� � � 0.61� �� � �1� 0.69�1 � ��<br />

� � 6 � � � � 6 � � 6 �� � � 6 ��<br />

last price in-between posted prices anchor<br />

� �<br />

� 0.115 � 4� 0.102 � 0.425 � 0.947<br />

This graphical representation corresponds to the example of cumulated ranks on<br />

the x-axis and accumulated weight on the y-axis:<br />

130


1� 0.69�5 6�<br />

0.61�4 6�<br />

0.69�1 6� � 0<br />

�16� �56� As we can see, the anchor, i.e. the right-hand side of the graph, receives the<br />

highest weight. If the asocial valuation gets a high weight on the topic of the value<br />

refinement in time, the bidder‟s valuation is not fully captured by the sequential<br />

market-clearing prices. Regarding our low-type bidder, the risk of deviating from<br />

her anchor, while she updates her reference point, is lower with the s-shaped<br />

weighting than with the uniform weighting. �<br />

131


132


133<br />

Chapter 4<br />

Competitive Private Supply of Public Goods<br />

Abstract<br />

This chapter compares guilt alleviation and competition for social status in the private<br />

provision of a public good. When agents are intrinsically impulsed, that is, they<br />

mostly provide the public good in order to alleviate their guilt, they tend to free-ride.<br />

In contrast, when agents are extrinsically impulsed and compete for social status,<br />

their provisions become strategic complements. In the latter case, the aggregate level<br />

of the public good increases as the disparity between agents‟ incomes shrinks.<br />

Injecting competition for social status into utility functions increases provisions to a<br />

public good, and hence its aggregate level. Market competition thus creates incentives<br />

to overcome the free-riding issue.<br />

Keywords: public good private supply, guilt relieving, social status, competition,<br />

income transfer<br />

JEL Classification: A13, C7, H41


4.1. Introduction<br />

134<br />

"Guilt is the price we pay willingly<br />

for doing what we are going to do<br />

anyway." Isabelle Holland<br />

The voluntary offset market enables agents to pay for their negative<br />

externalities issued from carbon emissions by investing in projects that reduce<br />

emissions or sequester carbon, such as tree planting or renewable energy. The<br />

reduction of carbon emissions is a public good because, once provided, agents can<br />

enjoy the benefits devoid of rivalry, without excluding anyone from its consumption.<br />

Some people believe that the voluntary offset market is inefficient. One of the<br />

arguments put forward is that offsetting validates polluting behavior. Likewise,<br />

offsetting is said to operate like charities: voluntary supplies never provide enough<br />

public good because of the free-rider incentive. And when private arrangements<br />

finance a public good, free-riding on other people‟s provisions is rational.<br />

However, free-riding is limited to some extent because agents who purchase<br />

offsets may also derive private benefits. Olson (1965) advances the hypothesis that<br />

free-riding can be overcome through social incentives. According to him, agents do<br />

not privately supply a public good for its direct material benefit, but to achieve social<br />

objectives like prestige or respect; this would explain why individuals do less free-<br />

riding than what the economic theory suggests. Following this rationale, Hawkes et<br />

al. (1993) show that in ancient times hunters and gatherers tended to share their<br />

resources because the cost of exclusion from the group – where every agent prefers a<br />

supplier to a consumer as a neighbor – was too high to risk, thus making resources a<br />

public good.<br />

This impure approach of pro-social behavior has been modeled by Andreoni<br />

(1990) who justifies private provisions in terms of warm-glow or joy-of-giving. Our<br />

approach differs from Andreoni‟s and rejoins Olson‟s, for we consider social status<br />

gained by agents who privately supply a public good from its relative perspective. As<br />

a matter of fact, supplying to the public good can generate benefits of guilt relief –<br />

which we find more convincing than warm-glow – and/or social status. In the first


case, agents want to feel better about themselves, because they want to recover self-<br />

esteem after producing a public bad. If an agent feels guilty, because she believes she<br />

bears responsibility for carbon excesses, then guilt alleviation through carbon<br />

offsetting is a private benefit derived from the supply of the public good 46 . Despite<br />

the private benefit, the motivation for it is internal. It is thus an intrinsic incentive.<br />

Since guilt arousal is positively related to donation intention (Hibbert et al. 2007),<br />

guilt alleviation has positive impacts on environmental awareness. Then, agents<br />

compete to be formally acknowledged as being the most concerned about the public<br />

good. This prosocial behavior can be due to social pres<strong>sur</strong>e and norms and<br />

corresponds to an extrinsic incentive. An agent who offsets receives a proof<br />

acknowledging her provision to the public good. She thus sends a signal to make<br />

other agents aware of her polluting abatement. Following this rationale, producers<br />

will also promote their offsets as part of their corporate social responsibility policy<br />

(Kotchen 2009).<br />

People have a preference for showing altruism in situations that facilitate<br />

broadcast opportunities, and the provision of a public good is certainly one such<br />

situation (Smith and Bliege Bird 2000). De facto, what type of incentives should be<br />

introduced to increase private provisions? Are competitive settings such as auctions a<br />

good solution to the inefficient provision of a public good? Do agents become more<br />

generous by guilt or by craving for social status?<br />

If high status brings with it high earnings, then status seeking behavior can be<br />

explained as a part of economic behavior (Ball and Eckel 1998). According to<br />

competitive altruism, despite the dearness of being publicly generous, agents can<br />

promote their generosity as potential exchange partners, reaping the benefits later on<br />

(Roberts 1998). Agents also refuse transactions that are in their best economic interest<br />

when they feel they are an insult to their dignity (Bénabou and Tirole 2006).<br />

Experimental literature has confirmed the role of individual status as an incentive<br />

affecting market outcomes (Ball et al. 2001) and donors (Duffy and Kornienko 2005).<br />

Because of the rivalry and excludability in social hierarchy, agents have to compete<br />

46 Gilbert (1997) speaks about membership guilt over group wrongs. This collective guilt will be<br />

shared by members of the collective in question in their capacity as group members.<br />

135


efore attaining some desired social status: if an agent desires to be the first or among<br />

the first in some venture, she might have to make the most efforts to reach her goal.<br />

Making the most efforts means that she has knowledge of her challengers and of the<br />

efforts she has to invest. In this case, how does competition influence an agent‟s<br />

voluntary supply of a public good? Competitive mechanisms, such as contests, have<br />

shown to increase the voluntary provision of a public good (Kolmar and Wagener<br />

2008).<br />

This chapter investigates how competition influences private provisions of the<br />

public good when agents are stirred by an intrinsic impulse, meaning that they mainly<br />

maximize utility from guilt relief, as opposed to when they are stirred by an extrinsic<br />

impulse, suggesting that they mainly maximize utility from social status. Our public<br />

good game unveils several results: first, we find that when status seeking dominates<br />

guilt relief, private provisions become strategic complements: an attribute which<br />

increases the aggregate level of the public good. Then, we prove sufficient conditions<br />

for existence and uniqueness of a Nash equilibrium. At last, when agents behave<br />

according to their best-response functions, we find that the aggregate level of the<br />

public good depends on the disparity between agents‟ incomes, which – depending on<br />

the nature of the provisions – induces a particular income transfer policy.<br />

We give a basic account of the social status function and present the public<br />

good game in Section 4.2. We provide a model of logarithmic best-response functions<br />

and describe explicit properties of a Nash equilibrium in Section 4.3. Concluding<br />

comments are given in Section 4.4.<br />

4.2. The public good game<br />

Let us first introduce the social status function. Consider n agents who<br />

produce the public good by devoting some of their endowment w into the public good<br />

g . Following Frank (1985), let us suppose that each agent cares about her social<br />

status with respect to the other n � 1 agents.<br />

136


Definition 4.1.: The social status function is a continuously differentiable function<br />

� , �<br />

si � s gi g�i where i g is the provision of agent i, g� i is the provision of other<br />

agents. The level of the provision to the public good determines social status. If<br />

f �g � is the density function for g values which determines the social status of the<br />

agents and g 0 is the smallest provision to the public good g among the n agents, then<br />

an agent with 0 < g g n will have a social status function such that:<br />

g<br />

� � � �<br />

s g � � f g dg<br />

[1]<br />

n<br />

g<br />

0<br />

where f �g � increases as g moves towards the maximum value of its domain.<br />

Let us consider two agents i and j, with j � i.<br />

Let w i be agent i‟s endowment,<br />

let x i denote her consumption of the private good, let G be the aggregate level of<br />

public good and let g i account for her provision to the public good. The aggregate<br />

level of public good is the sum of the two agents‟ provisions G � gi � g j.<br />

Agent i‟s<br />

social status is determined by her relative contribution si � gi �gj<br />

preferences represented by the following utility function:<br />

� , , �<br />

i i i i<br />

137<br />

47 . Agents have<br />

u � u x G s<br />

[2]<br />

Considering agent j‟s provision g j as exogenous, agent i maximizes her<br />

utility by solving the following program:<br />

x , g<br />

� �<br />

max u x , G, s subject to xi �gi� wi<br />

and g � 0<br />

[2']<br />

i i<br />

i i i<br />

47 According to Auriol and Renault (2008), social status is a scarce resource: increasing an agent‟s<br />

status requires that another agent‟s status decreases.<br />

i


Let us now determine the Nash equilibrium of the public good game. Each<br />

agent‟s best-response function fully specifies her equilibrium strategy. This strategy<br />

involves choosing a level of private supply to the public good, the private supply of<br />

the other agent being exogenous. We first analyze the best response functions of each<br />

agent. We thus study the two motives for contributing to the public good: to relieve<br />

guilt and to acquire social status.<br />

Assume the marginal utility from the provision to the public good to be:<br />

� �<br />

H x G s<br />

�u �u �u<br />

� � � [3]<br />

i i i<br />

i i, , i � � �<br />

G si xi<br />

The first term denotes the marginal utility from the public good. The second term<br />

represents the marginal efficacy of social status. The last term is the marginal fall in<br />

the consumption of private goods. We then make three assumptions on H .<br />

A1:<br />

�H � u � u � u<br />

� � � � 0<br />

�x �x �G �x �s �x<br />

2 2 2<br />

i i i i<br />

2<br />

i i i i i<br />

A1 says that an increase of income increases the marginal utility of the supply of the<br />

public good. The assumption is referred to as the normality assumption because it is<br />

satisfied if we assume that both private and public goods are normal with respect to<br />

income. It simply says that agent i‟s demand for the public good increases with<br />

income and her demand for private goods does not decrease with income.<br />

A2:<br />

�H � u � u � u<br />

� � � � 0<br />

�G �G �G�s �G�x 2 2 2<br />

i i<br />

2<br />

i i<br />

i i i<br />

A2 states that the marginal utility of the public good decreases with G. As a matter of<br />

fact, if the level of the public good increases independently of agent i‟s supply, there<br />

138<br />

[4]<br />

[5]


is no incentive to contribute to the public good. This is a formal foundation for the<br />

free-riding issue. Considering negative externalities, it simply means that any agent<br />

can compensate for the damage caused, and all agents can profit from its reparation 48 .<br />

A3:<br />

�H � u � u � u<br />

� � � � 0<br />

�s �s �G �s �s �x<br />

2 2 2<br />

i i i<br />

2<br />

i<br />

i i i i i<br />

A3 implies that an increase in social status creates negative incentives: the agent<br />

tends to reduce her supply to the public good, because she no longer has to compete<br />

for social status.<br />

According to the previous assumptions and following the work on warm-glow<br />

by Andreoni (1990), we now consider that individuals obtain guilt relief and social<br />

status from their private supply of the public good. Following the first order<br />

condition, agent i‟s best response, that is, � , �<br />

� �<br />

ri wi g i , is to have i<br />

139<br />

g such as:<br />

r � H w � g , g � g , g � g � 0<br />

[7]<br />

i i i i j i j<br />

A Nash equilibrium of the public good game is a couple of strategies<br />

each strategy is the best response to the other agent‟s strategy:<br />

� , �<br />

* *<br />

i i i j<br />

* *<br />

i j<br />

[6]<br />

g , g such that<br />

g � r w g with j � i<br />

[8]<br />

Let us now look at the second order condition to see whether contributing to<br />

the public good does in fact maximize an agent‟s function. The second order<br />

condition is satisfied for:<br />

48 According to Gilbert (1997) since feeling guilt is unpleasant, it is liable to move one who feels it to<br />

act. And this will not necessarily be the personal undertaking of reparative action.


dHi �Hi �Hi �Hi<br />

� � � � 0<br />

dg �G �s �x<br />

i i i i<br />

The sign of the differential implies a diminishing marginal utility of the public good<br />

as the agent supplies the public good. Negativity depends on three terms. The first<br />

term mea<strong>sur</strong>es the outcome of any provision to the public good on the marginal utility<br />

of the public good. This is our indicator of free-riding. The second term values the<br />

outcome of a shift in the social status on the marginal utility of the public good. It<br />

allows us to study the interactions between the aggregate level of the public good and<br />

social status in the utility function. The third term assesses the impact of a decrease in<br />

private goods‟ consumption on the marginal utility of the public good.<br />

Let us now consider the effect of agent j‟s supply on the marginal utility of<br />

agent i‟s supply:<br />

dH �H�H � �<br />

dg �G�s i i i<br />

j i i<br />

This effect is ambiguous, for the first term is negative while the second one is<br />

positive. The first term denotes a typical free-riding issue: an increase of agent j‟s<br />

provision reduces agent i‟s incentive to contribute; except that the second term<br />

denotes status seeking, thus an opposite effect, as social status decreases with agent<br />

j‟s supply. Indeed, agent i suffers from the reduction in the level of public good due<br />

to carbon emissions, thus any private provision that increases the public good also<br />

increases agent i‟s utility. Provided that any supply removes her feelings of guilt, she<br />

can free-ride on others‟ provisions and allocate all her endowment to the private<br />

goods instead. This is a counter-incentive to supply the public good. In parallel, agent<br />

i suffers from status loss in social hierarchy every time others supply the public good.<br />

Therefore g j is also an incentive to contribute in order to maintain the level of social<br />

status.<br />

The sign of the best-response function slope of agent i is:<br />

140<br />

[9]<br />

[10]


�ri �<br />

dH dg<br />

i j<br />

�g�dHdg j i i<br />

The sign depends on which effect prevails: guilt relieving or status seeking.<br />

According to the terms of Bulow et al. (1985), if free-riding dominates social<br />

hierarchy or �r � g >0,<br />

we are in the presence of strategic substitutes, and strategic<br />

i j<br />

complements vice versa. Despite the fact that in standard public good games (even in<br />

the presence of an impure public good) the only effect at stake is free-riding and<br />

public good provisions are always strategic substitutes: injecting competition for<br />

social status converts the provisions into strategic complements in some cases.<br />

141<br />

[11]<br />

A Nash equilibrium is a set of provisions that satisfies the aggregation of<br />

supplies. Let us prove the existence and uniqueness of a Nash equilibrium. For a<br />

Nash equilibrium between agents to exist, one must verify:<br />

dHi dg j dH j dgi<br />

, 1,1<br />

dH dg dH dg ��<br />

� �<br />

i i j j<br />

� �<br />

The slopes of the best-response functions are bounds within the interval �� 1,1�<br />

. The<br />

binding conditions are sufficient for the existence of a unique Nash equilibrium.<br />

Proposition 4.1.: If [12] is satisfied, there exists a unique Nash equilibrium.<br />

Proof: In the appendix.<br />

[12]<br />

Let us now see what happens when the policy of income transfer is instituted.<br />

Consider the ratio which confronts the two motives involved in the public good‟s<br />

supply. The expression returns to an intrinsic impulse coefficient such as:<br />

�<br />

�H �x<br />

i i<br />

i �<br />

� i � i � � i � i<br />

� H x � �2 H s �<br />

[13]


The numerator mea<strong>sur</strong>es the marginal utility of the public good and stands for<br />

the intrinsic (contrite) impulse of guilt relief to supply the public good. It depends on<br />

agent i‟s income and thus on her opportunity loss when she doesn‟t purchase the<br />

private goods. Here, agent i is indifferent between consuming her own supply or<br />

benefiting from agent j‟s supply of the public good. In Andreoni‟s terminology, this<br />

phenomenon means pure altruism or selflessness of agent i. Here, we consider the<br />

numerator as a mea<strong>sur</strong>e of free-riding on others‟ provisions.<br />

The denominator represents the influence of social status on the marginal<br />

utility of the public good and stands for the extrinsic (social) impulse of status<br />

seeking to supply the public good. Just as with the numerator, it depends on agent i‟s<br />

income, but it depends on social status above all, that is, marginal utility of the public<br />

good derived from her own provision (analogue to Andreoni‟s impure altruism).<br />

Given that status is acquired by relative provisions, the effect of social status counts<br />

twice. First, consuming more of the x‟s decreases agent i‟s provision to the public<br />

good and thus her social status; second, more of g j implies lower social status for<br />

agent i, all else being equal. For those reasons, the intrinsic impulse coefficient is<br />

inversely proportional to status seeking.<br />

Proposition 4.2.: An income transfer from agent j to agent i , such that<br />

dwi � �dwj � 0 increases G if and only if � > � .<br />

Proof: In the appendix.<br />

i j<br />

Agents are unwilling to perfectly substitute their provisions to offset a<br />

transfer. If �i> � j then agent i can be considered to be less status seeking than agent<br />

j. Hence, the policy of income transfer will increase (decrease or not change) the<br />

aggregate level of the public good if and only if the income gainer is less status<br />

seeking than (more status seeking than or equally status seeking than) the income<br />

loser. This proposition is comparable to that of Andreoni, but our interpretation is<br />

different. In fact, since competition for social status encourages agents to supply the<br />

142


public good, only an increase in income will motivate the lower income agent to<br />

supply more 49 , for it enables her to compete for social status. Without transfer, her<br />

position discourages her to race for social status and she can only relieve her guilt.<br />

The direct consequence is free-riding on other agents‟ provisions. Another way of<br />

understanding the proposition is: since the higher income agent proves – with a<br />

higher level of supply which reflects higher income – to be more extrinsically<br />

impulsed, she does not have to contribute more to the public good. She is in no doubt<br />

to hold the social status ex ante.<br />

Our model is a way-out to Andreoni‟s impure altruism and warm-glow giving.<br />

What he calls pure altruism, we identify as guilt relief and free-riding, while his<br />

impure altruism corresponds to our willingness to compete for social status, which is<br />

observable via any non-anonymous donation. The model is thus an alternative and a<br />

more realistic way to explain prosocial behavior.<br />

4.3. The explicit logarithmic model<br />

4.3.1. The program<br />

Following the model by Kumru and Vesterlund (2008), agents have<br />

preferences represented by the following separable nonlinear utility function:<br />

� , , � ln � � ln �� � �<br />

u x G s � x � G � s<br />

[14]<br />

i i i i i i i<br />

where G � gi � g j and si � gi � g j.<br />

Private goods are included in the first term, while<br />

provisions are included in the second term which is nondecreasing in g i . The latter<br />

mea<strong>sur</strong>es utility derived from guilt relief based on the aggregate level of the public<br />

good G and social hierarchy s i which are separable.<br />

49 For example, OECD (2007) suggests monetary transfers in benefit of low income households when<br />

imposing environmental taxes.<br />

143


We assume that individuals originate guilt relief from their private supply of<br />

the public good. Agent i‟s preferences when she provides the public good by g i are<br />

defined by:<br />

�g g �<br />

� � for j � i<br />

[15]<br />

i i j<br />

The expression denotes the utility that agent i gets from supplying to the<br />

public good and the aggregate level of the public good scaled by a specific index<br />

� � 0 . The aggregation of provisions corresponds to the public good dimension of<br />

i<br />

the utility function. We assume that some willingness to relieve guilt is stated by<br />

either agent 50 . For example, either agent could relieve guilt with a single symbolic<br />

coin when participating in charity auctions.<br />

Agent i gets utility from social status when she provides the public good by<br />

gi 51 . Her status is given by the distance between her provision and that of agent j‟s<br />

such as:<br />

�g g �<br />

� � for j � i<br />

[16]<br />

i i j<br />

Agent i enhances her status in the social hierarchy if her provision<br />

outdistances agent j‟s; otherwise, her social status deteriorates. The status is scaled by<br />

a specific index � i , with �i � 0 , which mea<strong>sur</strong>es agent i‟s willingness to acquire<br />

social status. When agents provide identical provisions, the term vanishes. In the<br />

equilibrium, agent i knows whether she acquires social status through her private<br />

supply of the public good ( i g > g j ). The explicit maximization program is then:<br />

50 Social comparison theory suggests that individuals have a need to compare themselves to individuals<br />

whom they deem are similar to them (Goethals 1986).<br />

51 A status-based model of market competition has already been introduced by Podolny (1993).<br />

144


x , g<br />

� i � i j � � � � i � i � � �i�i�j���i�i�j� max u x , g , g , s ln w g ln � g g g g �<br />

� �<br />

i i<br />

subject to x � g � w, g � 0<br />

i i i<br />

145<br />

[17]<br />

The first term represents the utility derived from the consumption of private<br />

goods x i . The second term corresponds to the utility that agent i obtains from her<br />

supply of the public good. Agent j‟s provision is both a strategic substitute and a<br />

strategic complement of agent i‟s utility. As a strategic substitute, two obvious<br />

interpretations come out. First, agent i suffers from the public good diminishment due<br />

to carbon emissions, thus any private provision that increases the public good also<br />

increases agent i‟s utility indexed by � i . Second, since any provision removes her<br />

feelings of guilt, she can free-ride on others‟ provisions and allocate all her<br />

endowment to the consumption of the private goods. To consider agent j‟s provision<br />

as a strategic complement is to consider that agent i suffers from status loss in social<br />

hierarchy every time agent j provides the public good. Therefore, agent j‟s private<br />

provision decreases agent i‟s utility.<br />

4.3.2. Reaction functions<br />

Now suppose both agents decide to submit their provisions to the public good.<br />

Given g j , differentiating � � u � with respect to i g gives r i , agent i‟s best-response<br />

function:<br />

1 A<br />

� i<br />

wi w � i<br />

ri �wi , g j � � wi � g j if g j �max � , � �<br />

2 2<br />

�Ai Ai<br />

�<br />

A<br />

� � �<br />

� .<br />

� �<br />

i i<br />

where i<br />

i � i<br />

[18]<br />

Whether r i is constrained depends on the level of j g . For small values of g j ,<br />

agent i allocates a part of her income to the supply of public good. For sufficiently


high values of g j , agent i can supply either nothing or her full income. Whichever<br />

occurs depends on the sign of �i � �i.<br />

Corollary 4.1.: The difference between � i and � i determines whether provisions are<br />

strategic substitutes or strategic complements.<br />

Proof: In the appendix.<br />

When ><br />

i i<br />

� � or Ai � 0 , r i is the best-response only when g j � wi Ai<br />

, which<br />

is a nonnegative number. If agent j <strong>sur</strong>passes this threshold, agent i has fairly no<br />

incentive to make positive provisions. In point of fact, even a quasi-null level of i g<br />

(nonnegative by definition) enables agent i to maximize her utility by allocating her<br />

income to more private goods while alleviating her guilt through agent j‟s provisions.<br />

We could think of an individual who pays tribute to the collective high efforts in<br />

providing the public good while ending up self-pleased by giving a single coin.<br />

When �i � �i<br />

or A � 0 , agent i is equally concerned by guilt alleviation and<br />

i<br />

social hierarchy. This time, r i is equal to � � ½ w i for g j ��0, � � . Her provision is<br />

always the half of her income, but she has no incentive to contribute more than that.<br />

This is the behavior of an autonomous agent who disregards the provisions of the<br />

opponent. We could think of an individual who invariably contributes to the public<br />

good in order to alleviate her guilt – because some moral obligation incites her to do<br />

so –, but who does not discredit the positive spillover on her social rank, even if she is<br />

not centered upon the social ranking matter. This agent is either blind or denies the<br />

possibility of acting as a free-rider.<br />

At last, when <<br />

i i<br />

� � or Ai � 0 , r i holds if g j �� wi Ai<br />

, otherwise ri � wi<br />

and<br />

agent i allocates her full income to the supply of the public good. Provisions are then<br />

strategic complements: every time agent j increases her supply, agent i has an<br />

incentive to increase her supply to stay in the race for the social status up to the point<br />

where her full income is spent.<br />

146


According to the foregoing results, Fig. 4.1. illustrates the best-response<br />

functions which meet at the bisection line, observed from symmetric cases<br />

�i ��j � � and �i ��j � � . Each best-response function – initiated from the<br />

reference point which is the opponent‟s null provision – is v-shaped, i.e. separated<br />

into two segments following opposite slopes.<br />

The black straight lines depict agent i‟s best-response functions. The grey<br />

straight lines depict agent j‟s best-response functions. We have three cases: (i) when<br />

the intrinsic impulse dominates A >0,<br />

their best-response functions decrease in their<br />

opponents‟ provisions and the public good is weakly provided, for respective<br />

provisions are less than wi 2, w j 2 ; (ii) when the extrinsic impulse dominates A 0<br />

A �0<br />

wi<br />

A


�r<br />

�<br />

i<br />

igj ��<br />

�� � � �<br />

� �<br />

i i i<br />

2 0<br />

[20]<br />

The derivative �ri � �i<br />

is strictly positive and agent i‟s best-response function<br />

increases in � i , for all j g . As � i goes up, agent i is emulous and considers agent j‟s<br />

provision a threat to her status in the social hierarchy, which makes her increase her<br />

provision. In consequence, the higher � i , the higher the agent i‟s provision. The same<br />

reasoning applies to agent j.<br />

Corollary 4.3.: Agent i‟s best-response function increases in � i .<br />

4.3.3. The equilibrium


* *<br />

At a Nash equilibrium � i, j�<br />

g g each agent‟s provision is her best response to<br />

the other‟s. We first consider an interior equilibrium where both agents‟ provisions<br />

are strictly positive but inferior to their incomes:<br />

equilibrium, provisions amount:<br />

� 2w<br />

* i � Ajw j<br />

�gi<br />

�<br />

� 4 � AA i j<br />

�<br />

� 2w<br />

* j � Ai wi<br />

g j �<br />

�<br />

� 4 � AA j i<br />

� � �<br />

A � and A<br />

� �<br />

i i<br />

where i<br />

i � i<br />

j<br />

� j � � j<br />

� .<br />

� ��<br />

j j<br />

149<br />

*<br />

0 gi wi<br />

� � ,<br />

*<br />

0 gj wj<br />

� � . At such<br />

In this case, the aggregate level of the public good in equilibrium, that is,<br />

G � g � g , amounts:<br />

* * *<br />

i j<br />

1<br />

�2 � �2 �<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

*<br />

G � � Aj wi � � Ai wj<br />

4 � AA i j<br />

[21]<br />

[22]<br />

As one can detect, when agents apply their best-response functions, the<br />

aggregate level of the public good depends on the relative distance between the social<br />

status and guilt relief indices.<br />

Corollary 4.4.: When A i increases, (i) the equilibrium provision of agent i<br />

decreases; (ii) the aggregate equilibrium quantity of public good decreases; (iii) and<br />

the equilibrium provision of agent j increases (decreases) if Aj ��� �0 .<br />

Proof: In the appendix.


A policy of income transfer from agent j to agent i such that dw � �dw � 1<br />

impacts the aggregate quantity of public good:<br />

dG dg dg<br />

� �g �g<br />

� ��g �g<br />

�<br />

� � � �<br />

�� �� �� ��<br />

i i<br />

j j<br />

� i � j � � � �<br />

�wi �wj �wi �wj<br />

That is:<br />

1<br />

dG � �Ai �A�<br />

j<br />

4 � AA � �<br />

where<br />

i j<br />

A �A �2<br />

i j<br />

� � ��<br />

�<br />

i j j i<br />

��i ��i���j��j� 150<br />

i j<br />

[23]<br />

[23']<br />

Corollary 4.5.: At interior equilibrium, an income transfer from agent j to agent i<br />

increases (decreases) the aggregate level of the public good if and only if<br />

� �<br />

� � � � � > < 0.<br />

i j j i<br />

In equilibrium, when � �� � 0 and each agent is indifferent between her<br />

i j<br />

supply and the other‟s supply, we have dG � 0 which is the standard result of<br />

neutrality obtained by Warr (1983).<br />

Let us now consider corner solutions with either null or full-income<br />

provisions. In corner equilibria, in case of strategic substitutes, one of the agents<br />

provides a null supply. In the case of strategic complements, one of the agents<br />

allocates her full income to the public good supply. If we analyze income transfers at<br />

the corner equilibria in the symmetric case, Figs. 4.2. and 4.3. depict provisions with<br />

respect to the income inequality. The x-axes denote agents‟ shares of total income:<br />

� � �,<br />

wj �wi wj<br />

�<br />

w w w<br />

i i j<br />

� . The y-axis represents the aggregate level of the public<br />

good. The total income is fixed. The broken black curve represents the provision of<br />

agent i while the broken grey curve represents the provision of agent j. The broken


grey curve decreases while the broken black curve increases as the transfer between<br />

agents j and i occurs. The equality arises at 0.5. The solid black curve illustrates the<br />

sum of provisions, i.e. the aggregate level of the public good.<br />

G<br />

G<br />

0 0.5<br />

1<br />

*<br />

g j<br />

0 0.5<br />

1<br />

Fig. 4.2. Income transfer with strategic substitutes<br />

0 0.5<br />

*<br />

g j<br />

0 0.5<br />

Fig. 4.3. Income transfer with strategic complements<br />

In the case of strategic substitutes (the standard scenario in public good<br />

games), where guilt relief prevails, the aggregate level of the public good decreases as<br />

the incomes‟ disparity shrinks. Indeed, at a corner solution, the lower income agent<br />

151<br />

*<br />

gi<br />

*<br />

gi<br />

1<br />

1


invariably free-rides on the supply of the higher income agent. If the income is<br />

transferred from the lower income agent to the higher income agent, the latter should<br />

allocate the extra income into the public good supply 52 and the aggregate quantity<br />

should increase. This is a similar result to Theorem 5 from Bergstrom et al. (1986)<br />

who show that equalizing income by transferring income from contributors to non-<br />

contributors will decrease the equilibrium supply of the public good, in the case of a<br />

pure public good ( �i � 0 in our case).<br />

In the case of strategic complements (the novel scenario in public good<br />

games), where status seeking prevails, the aggregate level of the public good<br />

decreases as the agents‟ income disparity grows. This time, the lower income agent<br />

allocates her full income to the supply of public good in order to gain social status,<br />

thus saturating her supply capacity, whereas the higher income agent contributes less<br />

than her full income. An income transfer from the higher income agent to the lower<br />

income agent should increase the quantity of public good, because the lower income<br />

agent should allocate the money transfer to the provision of the public good.<br />

G<br />

–1<br />

Aj<br />

Fig. 4.4. The aggregate level of provisions<br />

52 For example, this suggests that cutting taxes on the higher income agent and raising taxes on the<br />

lower income agent may increase private supply.<br />

0<br />

1<br />

152<br />

0<br />

Ai<br />

–1


i<br />

At last, Fig. 4.4. shows the aggregate provisions to the public good in view of<br />

A and A j , in both interior and corner equilibria. The kinks in the slope correspond to<br />

corner equilibria. When A i


Therefore, status (market) competition in the form of auctions can be an<br />

answer to free-riding 53 . Our results could explain the institution of charity auctions,<br />

honor rolls of donors and the construction of socially responsible finance indices.<br />

More generally, it could relate to why institutions make use of agents‟ willingness to<br />

demonstrate their generosity if not their apparent selflessness. To some extent, our<br />

model could be an illustration of the theory of crowding out of intrinsic motivations<br />

by extrinsic incentives. Further work consists in verifying the relevancy of these<br />

findings with field data.<br />

4.5. References<br />

Andreoni, J. (1990), “Impure Altruism and Donations to Public Goods: A Theory of<br />

Warm-Glow Giving?”, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, 100: 464–<br />

477.<br />

Auriol, E. and Renault, R. (2008), “Status and Incentives”, RAND Journal of<br />

Economics, 39: 305–326.<br />

Ball, S. and Eckel, C. (1998), “The Economic Value of Status”, Journal of Socio-<br />

Economics, 27: 495–514.<br />

Ball, S., Eckel, C., Grossman, P. and Zame, W. (2001), “Status in Markets”,<br />

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116: 161–188.<br />

Bénabou, R. and Tirole, J. (2006), “Incentives and Prosocial Behavior”, American<br />

Economic Review, 96: 1652–1678.<br />

Bergstrom, T., Blume, L. and Varian, H. (1986), “On the Private Provision of Public<br />

Goods”, Journal of Public Economics, 29: 25–49.<br />

Bulow, J., Geanakoplos, J. and Klemperer, P. (1985), “Multimarket Oligopoly:<br />

Strategic Substitutes and Complements”, Journal of Political Economy, 93: 488–<br />

511.<br />

Frank, R. (1985), “The Demand for Unobservable and Other Nonpositional Goods”,<br />

American Economic Review, 75: 101–116.<br />

53 This is an opposite result to Holländer (1990) who finds that opening a market for the collective<br />

good lowers its provision.<br />

154


Gilbert, M. (1997), “Group Wrongs and Guilt Feelings”, Journal of Ethics, 1: 65–84.<br />

Goethals, G. (1986), “Social Comparison Theory: Psychology from the Lost and<br />

Found”, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 12: 261–278.<br />

Hawkes, K., Altman, J., Beckerman, S., Grinker, R., Harpending, H., Jeske, R.,<br />

Peterson, N., Smith, E., Wenzel, G. and Yellen, J. (1993), “Why Hunter-<br />

Gatherers Work: An Ancient Version of the Problem of Public Goods [and<br />

Comments and Reply]”, Current Anthropology, 34: 341– 361.<br />

Holländer, H. (1990), “A Social Exchange Approach to Voluntary Cooperation”,<br />

American Economic Review, 80: 1157– 1167.<br />

Kolmar, M. and Wagener, A., (2008), “Contests and the Private Provision of Public<br />

Goods”, University of St. Gallen <strong>La</strong>w and Economics Working Paper No. 2008-<br />

27.<br />

Kotchen, M. (2009), “Offsetting Green Guilt”, Stanford Social Innovation Review,<br />

Spring 2009.<br />

Kumru, C. and Vesterlund, L. (2008), “The Effect of Status on Voluntary Provision”,<br />

Australian School of Business Research Paper No.2008 ECON 02.<br />

OCDE (2007), “L‟économie politique des taxes liées à l‟environnement”, Les<br />

Synthèses de l’OCDE, available at: www.oecd.org/env/taxes<br />

Olson, M. (1965), “The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of<br />

Groups”, Harvard University Press, First edition.<br />

Podolny, J. (1993), “A Status-based Model of Market Competition”, American<br />

Journal of Sociology, 98: 829–872.<br />

Roberts, G. (1998), “Competitive altruism: From reciprocity to the handicap<br />

principle”, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences,<br />

265: 427–431.<br />

Smith, E. and Bleige Bird, R, (2000), “Turtle Hunting and Tombstone Opening:<br />

Generosity as Costly Signaling”, Evolution and Human Behavior, 21: 245–261.<br />

Warr, P. (1983), “The Private Provision of a Public Good is Independent of the<br />

Distribution of Income”, Economics Letters, 13: 207–211.<br />

155


4.6. Appendix<br />

Proof of Proposition 4.1.<br />

* *<br />

First, � i, j�<br />

g g is a Nash equilibrium if and only if<br />

� i � j � , j �,<br />

i � and � �<br />

x r r x w w<br />

�r � �<br />

�g<br />

j<br />

r g � g .<br />

* *<br />

j i j<br />

�r � �<br />

�g<br />

i<br />

j<br />

Second, if � 1,1�<br />

and � 1,1�<br />

point and<br />

dHi dH j<br />

�ri �g j<br />

dg j<br />

�<br />

�dH dg<br />

�rj<br />

dgi<br />

, �<br />

�g<br />

�dH<br />

i<br />

dg<br />

i j<br />

i j<br />

Proof of Proposition 4.2.<br />

i<br />

156<br />

*<br />

g i is a fixed point of the function:<br />

� , , �<br />

x � r r x w w has a unique fixed<br />

, � �<br />

i j j i<br />

Consider the ratio which mea<strong>sur</strong>es the relative incentives to contribute to the public<br />

good:<br />

dHi �Hi<br />

dxi � i �<br />

dHi dHi �<br />

dg j dgi �xi<br />

�<br />

��H i �H � � i �Hi �Hi �H<br />

� i<br />

� �<br />

G s<br />

� � � � �<br />

i G si x<br />

�<br />

� � � � � � � � i �<br />

First of all, it is worth writing � i according to the partial derivative of the reaction<br />

function r i :<br />


�Hi �Hi �ri<br />

�xi �xi �wi<br />

� i � � �<br />

�Hi 2�Hi<br />

�Hi �Hi �ri<br />

� � 1�<br />

�x �s �g �g �g<br />

i i j i j<br />

The income transfer corresponds to dw � �dw � 0 . At the unique equilibrium<br />

i j<br />

*<br />

G �wi, w j�,<br />

agent i ‟s provision satisfies � , �<br />

relation gives<br />

�r �r<br />

dg � dg � dw .<br />

* i * i<br />

i<br />

�gj j<br />

�wi<br />

i<br />

Since<br />

dg dG dg<br />

* * *<br />

j i<br />

r g w � g and differentiation of this<br />

* *<br />

i j i i<br />

�r �r<br />

dg � dG � dg � dw . That is:<br />

* * *<br />

� � , we have � �<br />

i i<br />

i<br />

�gj i<br />

�wi<br />

i<br />

�ri �ri<br />

�ri<br />

�g * j<br />

dgi �<br />

�ri 1� �g * �wi<br />

dG �<br />

�ri 1� �g �gj<br />

dwi �<br />

�ri<br />

1�<br />

�g<br />

*<br />

dG � � idwi ,<br />

j j j<br />

A similar expression holds for<br />

� �ri �rj<br />

�<br />

� �g �<br />

j �<br />

�gi<br />

1�<br />

� � � � � �<br />

� �ri �rj<br />

�<br />

�<br />

1� 1�<br />

g j g<br />

�<br />

� � � i �<br />

*<br />

dg j and summing both expressions gives:<br />

� �<br />

*<br />

dG � idwi � jdw j � i � j dwi<br />

Because of [12], the first factor of the left hand side is positive thus:<br />

*<br />

dG 0 �i � j<br />

� � � �<br />

157<br />

,


Proof of Corollary 4.1.<br />

Given g j , differentiating � � u � with respect to g i gives best-response<br />

interior solution the first order condition is satisfied:<br />

1<br />

�i � �i<br />

� � � 0.<br />

w � r � r � g � � r � g<br />

� � � �<br />

i i i i j i i j<br />

Therefore, ��i �i �� wi ri � �i �ri g j � �i<br />

�ri g j �<br />

� � � � � � , and<br />

��i ��i�<br />

�� ��<br />

�<br />

1 1 1 1<br />

r �g , w � � w � g � w � A g<br />

2 2 2 2<br />

i j i i j i i j<br />

i i<br />

158<br />

*<br />

g i . At an<br />

This equation holds if the right hand side is between 0 and w i which is the case if<br />

g j � wi Ai<br />

when A � 0 (i.e. �i � �i)<br />

and g j �� wi Ai<br />

when A � 0 (i.e. �i � �i).<br />

When �� � �=0<br />

� , �½� i i<br />

i<br />

r � w for any g � 0.<br />

The same reasoning applies to agent<br />

i i<br />

j. �<br />

Proof of Corollary 4.4.<br />

At an interior equilibrium, the two following equations are satisfied:<br />

* *<br />

�� 2gi<br />

� Ai g j �wi<br />

�<br />

�� A g �2g�w * *<br />

j i j j<br />

� � �<br />

� � �<br />

i i<br />

j j<br />

where A � , A � ���1,1� i j<br />

�i ��i�j��j The aggregation of provisions amounts:<br />

.<br />

j<br />

i


� gi � 1 � 2 �Ai��wi�1 �2wi�A1wj� �<br />

g<br />

� � � �<br />

4 A A �A2 � �<br />

w<br />

� �<br />

4 A A 2w�Aw<br />

�<br />

� �<br />

� j � i j � j � � j � i j � j 2 i �<br />

And the total provision is:<br />

1<br />

�2 � �2 �<br />

� �<br />

� �<br />

*<br />

G � � Aj wi � � Ai wj<br />

4 � AA i j<br />

When � �� � 0 and agents are exclusively intrinsically impulsed<br />

i j<br />

2w2 * i � wi � wj � wj<br />

1<br />

G � � w � w<br />

4 �1<br />

3<br />

� i j�<br />

159<br />


160

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