The UFC Vegas 86 Prelims will conclude on ESPN+ as we're set for coverage of our Featured Prelim of the night, taking place in the Welterweight (170) Division. We'll bring you our betting prediction and pick as Houston's own Trevin Giles will take on Carlos Prates of Sao Paolo, Brazil. Check out our UFC odds series for our Giles-Prates prediction and pick.
Trevin Giles (16-5) has gone 7-5 since joining the UFC roster in 2017. He's gone 2-3 in his last five fights and suffered back-to-back losses to now-champion Dricus Du Plessis and Michael Morales. He rebounded with impressive consecutive wins over Louis Cosce and Preston Parsons, but dropped his last fight to a monster in Gabriel Bonfim. Giles will look to get back on track as the underdog yet again. He stands 6'0″ with a 74-inch reach.
Carlos Prates (17-6) will be making his UFC debut on Saturday after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series late last year. He came in against Mitch Ramirez as a slight betting favorite, but he completely floored Dana White with his left-hand KO in the second round. He'll be excited to make his official debut as his long life of fighting comes to this. Prates stands 6'1″ with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Vegas 86 Odds: Trevin Giles-Carlos Prates Odds
Trevin Giles: +210
Carlos Prates: -250
Over 1.5 rounds: -135
Under 1.5 rounds: +100
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Why Trevin Giles Will Win
Trevin Giles is coming into this fight following a bad loss to Gabriel Bonfim in one of his first few fights with the UFC. Giles has been around the block and has faced the likes of killers like Du Plessis, Roman Dolidze, and Preston Parsons. He's typically solid against tough competition, but it's clear he can struggle with a young, energetic opponent making his debut. While it'll be Prates' first UFC fight, Giles is just a year his senior and the two will have a long line of experience behind them. Giles should treat Prates as an equal veteran, but he'll certainly have the advantage in being the longstanding UFC fighter here. He'll have to dig deep into his veteran prowess to get it done as the underdog here.
We've seen Trevin Giles struggle against ultra-aggressive opponents and while he's great at throwing counter shots, he can often get overwhelmed by constant pressure. Movement will be a big part of his game and he should look to stick his jab and move to the outside of Prates. Giles has solid power in his hands with six wins by KO/TKO, but he's hand to withstand some wars in the process. He should look to avoid another war against Prates and not test his chin at this point of his career.
Why Carlos Prates Will Win
Carlos Prates comes into this fight as an experienced kickboxer with an MMA career spanning back to 2012. He's certainly not a newcomer in this game and he offers a different look from a debuting fighter than you would usually see in the UFC. At 30 years old, he's in his athletic prime and has a solid frame for the division. While he's usually skinnier and more wiry than his opponents, Prates hardly cuts any weight to make 170 pounds and fights right around his natural weight. This allows his power to stay the same and he's got extremely long limbs to leverage power from into his strikes. He certainly won't look the part of a debuting fighter once he steps in on Saturday.
Carlos Prates fights with a very bouncy Muay Thai stance and throws his strikes from a number of angles. He sits down and plants his feet when striking, but uses upper body movement to turn away any strikes coming back. He's extremely active with his kicking game and will throw to all three levels. His fighting style is reminiscent of Alex Pereira's stance, with the constant movement of a Wonderboy Thompson. He'll have the toughest test of his career in a UFC vet like Trevin Giles, but look for him to bring some fireworks during his debut.
Final Trevin Giles-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick
Carlos Prates has all the makings of a UFC-ready prospect and it's great to see him getting his shot after over a decade in the sport of MMA. His striking is tremendous and he'll have the advantage there, but we've seen him get taken down in previous fights due to his active kicking. Trevin Giles is known to be a tough fighter and if he's able to secure the takedowns and negate Prates' offense, he could shock the betting lines with an upset win here.
However, Prates is too active to get held down and he's always fighting with a sense of urgency. It's not often that a debuting fighter is this heavy of a favorite against a UFC vet, but it speaks volumes to how ready for this moment Prates is. Let's ride with him as he gets the win in his debut.
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Final Trevin Giles-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick: Carlos Prates (-250); Over 1.5 Rounds (-135)
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