Abstract
Climate change presents a serious threat to endangered plant species within a restricted habitat. Lilium polyphyllum D.Don ex Royle is a species indigenous to the coniferous forests of the Western Himalaya. However, over exploitation, due to its high medicinal properties and demands of industry, has resulted in a steep decline of its natural habitats. Consequently, the species is listed as critically endangered on the IUCN Red List. The present study was carried out in the Western Himalayan region using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the potential distribution of L. polyphyllum in respect of IPCC future climatic scenarios. The modeling used mutually least correlated bioclimatic variables and topographic data over 53 occurrence locations. Future scenarios include IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 (representing less harmful and harsh climatic conditions) for the years 2050 and 2070. The main predictor variables contributing to the habitat are the precipitation of the driest month (52.7%), elevation (13.9%) and temperature seasonality (7.8%). Current potential habitats for L. polyphyllum have been located in the north-west and south-east regions of the Western Himalaya. Future climate change scenarios predict that the potential habitats of this species will shrink by 38–81% in these regions and moreover the habitats will shift towards the south-east, making Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand state of India as favourable habitats in the future. These findings assist in the identification of the potential conservation areas and provision of protection against climate change.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdelaal M, Fois M, Fenu G, Bacchetta G (2019) Using MaxEnt modeling to predict the potential distribution of the endemic plant Rosa arabica Crép. in Egypt. Ecol Inform 50:68–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.01.003
Abolmaali SMR, Tarkesh M, Bashari H (2018) MaxEnt modeling for predicting suitable habitats and identifying the effects of climate change on a threatened species, Daphne mucronate, in central Iran. Ecol Inform 43:116–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2017.10.002
Adhikari D, Tiwary R, Barik SK (2015) Modelling hotspots for invasive alien plants in India. PLoS One 10(7):e0134665. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0134665
Ahmad R, Khruoo AA, Charles B, Hamid M, Rashid I, Aravind NA (2019) Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change. Sci Rep 9:11395. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47859-1
Applequist WL, Brinckmann JA, Cunningham AB, Hart RE, Heinrich M et al (2020) Scientists’ warning on climate change and medicinal plants. Planta Med 86:10–18. https://doi.org/10.1055/a-1041-3406
Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Thuillers W, Erhard M (2005) Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 11:1504–1513. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.001000.x
Babar S, Amarnath G, Reddy CS, Jentsch A, Sudhakar S (2012) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction of an endemic and endangered plant species (Pterocarpus santalinus L.f.). Curr Sci 102(8):1157–1165
Barik SK, Tiwari ON, Adhikari D, Singh PP, Tiwary R et al (2018) Geographic distribution pattern of threatened plants of India and steps taken for their conservation. Curr Sci 114(3):470–503. https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v114/i03/470-503
Behroozian M, Ejtehadi H, Peterson AT, Memariani F, Mesdaghi M (2020) Climate change influences on the potential distribution of Dianthus polylepis Bien.ex Boiss.(Caryophyllaceae), an endemic species in the Irano-Turanian region. PLoS One 15(8):e0237527. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237527
Cuena-Lombrana A, Fois M, Fenu G, Cogoni D, Bacchetta G (2018) The impact of climatic variations on the reproductive success of Gentiana lutea L. in a Mediterranean mountain area. Int J. Biometeorol 63:1283–1295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1533-3
Deka K, Baruah PS, Sarma B, Borthakur SK, Tanti B (2017) Preventing extinction and improving conservation status of Vanilla borneensis Rolfe- a rare, endemic and threatened orchid of Assam, India. J Nat Conserv 37:39–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2017.03.001
Dhaliwal DS, Sharma M (1999) Flora of Kullu District (Himachal Pradesh). Bishen Singh Mahendra Pal Singh. Dehradun, India
Dhyani A (2012) Ecophysiology, multiplication and domestication of a critically endangered medicinal herb, Lilium polyphyllum D.Don ex Royle of north western Himalaya. Ph.D. dissertation, H.N.B. Garhwal University, Srinagar Garhwal, Uttarakhand, India
Dhyani A, Bahuguna YM, Semwal DP, Nautiyal BP, Nautiyal MC (2009) Anatomical features of Lilium polyphyllum D.Don ex Royle (Liliaceae). J Amer Sci 5(5):85–90. https://doi.org/10.7537/marsjas050509.11
Dhyani A, Nautiyal MC, Nautiyal BP (2010a) Phenology of Lilium polyphyllum: in Garhwal Himalaya, India. Acta Hortic 855:107–112. https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2010.855.13
Dhyani A, Nautiyal BP, Nautiyal MC (2010b) Importance of Astavarga plants in traditional system of medicine in Garhwal, Indian Himalaya. Int J Biodivers Sci Ecosyst Serv Manag 6:13–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2010.521490
Dhyani A, Phartyal SS, Nautiyal BP, Nautiyal MC (2013) Epicotyl morphophysiological dormancy in seeds of Lilium polyphyllum (Liliaceae). J Biosci 38:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12038-012-9284-5
Dhyani A, Sharma G, Nautiyal BP, Nautiyal MC (2014) Propagation and conservation of Lilium polyphyllum D.Don ex. Royle J App Res Med Aromat Plants 1(4):144–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jarmap.2014.10.001
Dhyani A, Nautiyal BP, Nautiyal MC (2018a) Distribution, status and conservation of Lilium polyphyllum (Liliaceae), a critically endangered medicinal plant from India. Plant Biosyst 152(4):608–611. https://doi.org/10.1080/11263504.2017.1330777
Dhyani S, Kadaverugu R, Dhyani D, Verma P, Pujari P (2018b) Predicting impacts of climate variability on habitats of Hippophae salicifolia (D. Don) (Seabuckthorn) in Central Himalayas: future challenges. Ecol Inform 48:135–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2018.09.003
Dhyani A, Baskin CC, Nautiyal BP, Nautiyal MC (2019) Overcoming root dormancy and identifying the storage behavior of Lilium polyphyllum seeds. Bot 97(2):161–166. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjb-2018-0161
Dhyani S, Kadaverugu R, Pujari P (2020) Predicting impacts of climate variability on Banj oak (Quercus leucotrichophora A. Camus) forests: understanding future implications for Central Himalayas. Reg Environ Chang 20:. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01696-5
Elith JH, Graham CP, Anderson R, Dudik M, Ferrier S, Guisan A et al (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29(2):129–151. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x
Fois M, Cuena-Lombrana A, Fenu G, Cogoni D, Bacchetta G (2016) The reliability of conservation status assessments at regional level: past, present and future perspectives on Gentiana lutea L. ssp. Lutea in Sardinia. J Nat Conserv 33:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2016.06.001
Gaur RD (1999) Flora of the district Garhwal, North West Himalaya: with ethnobotanical notes. TransMedia-publications, Srinagar Garhwal
Giordani A, Mari L (2012) Measurement, models, and uncertainty. IEEE Trans Instrum Meas 61:2144–2152. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIM.2012.2193695
Gogol-Prokurat M (2011) Predicting habitat suitability for rare plants at local spatial scales using a species distribution model. Ecol Appl 21:33–47. https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1190.1
Hengl T (2018) Soil texture classes (USDA system) for 6 soil depths (0, 10, 30, 60, 100 and 200 cm) at 250 m. https://zenodo.org/record/1475451. Accessed 20 Sept 2020
Hijmans RJ, Phillips S, Leathwick J, Elith J (2017) dismo: species distribution modeling. R. https://rspatial.org/raster/sdm/. Accessed 30 Apr 2017
Hooker JD (1988) The flora of British India. Bishen Singh Mahendra Pal Singh. Dehradun, India
Li JW, Zhang XC, Wang MR, Wen LB, Faisal M et al (2019) Development, progress and future prospects in cryobiotechnology of Lilium spp. Plant Methods 15:125. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13007-019-0506-9
Liu C, White M, Newell G (2013) Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data. J Biogeogr 40:778–789. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12058
Mir AH, Tyub S, Kamili AN (2020) Ecology, distribution mapping and conservation implications of four critically endangered endemic plants of Kashmir Himalaya. Saudi J Biol Sci 27:2380–2389. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sjbs.2020.05.006
Naimi B (2017) Package “usdm”. Uncertainty analysis for species distribution models. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/usdm/usdm.pdf (Accessed 10 Oct 2020)
Pearson RG, Raxworthy CJ, Nakamura M, Peterson AT (2007) Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar. J Biogeogr 34:102–117. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01594.x
Pecl GT, Araújo MB, Bell JD, Blanchard J, Bonebrake TC et al (2017) Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science 355(6332):eaai9214. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aai9214
Pelkonen VP, Pirttila AM (2012) Taxonomy and phylogeny of the genus Lilium. In: Tuyl JM, Arens P (eds) Floriculture and ornamental biotechnology 6(2) 1-8. Global Science Books, London
Phillips SJ, Dudík M, Schapire RE (2004) A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling. Proceedings of the 21st international conference on Machine learning, Banff, Canada, ACM 83. https://doi.org/10.1145/1015330.1015412
Phondani PC, Bhatt ID, Negi VS, Kothyari BP, Bhatt A et al (2016) Promoting medicinal plants cultivation as a tool for biodiversity conservation and livelihood enhancement in Indian Himalaya. J Asia Pac Biodivers 9(1):39–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japb.2015.12.001
Pramanik M, Paudel U, Biswas M, Chakraborti S, Deb P (2018) Predicting climate change impacts on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica in the Western Ghats, India. Clim Risk Manag 19:94–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.11.002
R Core Team (2017) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna
Rajpoot R, Adhikari D, Satyam V, Saikia P, Kumar A et al (2020) Climate models predict a divergent future for the medicinal tree Boswellia serrata Roxb. In India. Glob Ecol Conserv 23:e01040. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01040
Rana MS, Samant SS (2011) Population biology of Lilium polyphyllum D.Don ex Royle- a critically endangered medicinal plant in a protected area of Northwestern Himalaya. J Nat Conserv 19:137–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2010.08.001
Remya K, Ramachandran A, Jayakumar S (2015) Predicting the current and future suitable habitat distribution of Myristica dactyloides Gaertn. using MaxEnt model in the Eastern Ghats, India. Ecol Eng 82:184–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2015.04.053
Robinson MM, Zhang X (2011) The World Medicines Situation 2011. Traditional medicines: global situation, issues and challenges. World Health Organization, Geneva
Roman-Palacios C, Wiens JJ (2020) Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival. PNAS 117(8):4211–4217. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1913007117
Saha D, Ved D, Ravikumar K, Haridasan K, Dhyani A (2015) Lilium polyphyllum The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species:e.T50126623A79918170 https://doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2015-4.RLTS.T5012662379918170.en
Sen S, Gode A, Ramanujam S, Ravikanth G, Aravind NA (2016) Modeling the impact of climate change on wild Piper nigrum (Black pepper) in Western Ghats, India using ecological niche models. J Plant Res 129:1033–1040. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10265-016-0859-3
Sourabh P, Thakuar J, Priti SP, Uniyal PL, Pandey AK (2018) Habitat distribution modelling for reintroduction of endangered medicinal plants- Ephedra gerardiana, Lilium polyphyllum, Crepidium acuminatum, Pittosporum eriocarpum and Skimmia anquetilia in India. Int J Ecol Environ Sci 44(2):207–216
Stohlgren TJ, Ma P, Kumar S, Rocca M, Morisette JT et al (2010) Ensemble habitat mapping of invasive plant species. Risk Anal 30:224–235. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01343.x
Urban MC (2015) Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science 348(6234):571–573. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4984
Wang H-H, Wonkka CL, Treglia ML, Grant WE, Smeins FE et al (2015) Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid. AoB Plants 7:plv039. https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/plv039
Wang R, Li Q, He S, Liu Y, Wang M et al (2018) Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China. PLoS One 13:e0192153. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0192153
Wani AM, Raj AJ, Kanwar M (2013) Impact of climate change on forests of Eastern Himalayas and adaption strategies for combating it. Int J Agric For 3(3):98–104. https://doi.org/10.5923/j.ijaf.20130303.05
Warrier PK, Nambiar VPK, Ramankutty C (1997) Indian medicinal plants. A compendium of 500 species. Arya Vaidya Sala, Kottakkal, Oriental Longman, Chennai
Wei T, Simko VR (2017) package “corrplot”: visualization of a correlation matrix
Wiersema JH, León B (2016) World economic plants: a standard reference. CRC press Taylor and Francis Group. https://doi.org/10.1201/b13945
Yang XQ, Kushwaha SPS, Saran S, Xu J, Roy PS (2013) MaxEnt modeling for predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant, Justica adhatoda L.: in lesser Himalayan foothills. Ecol Eng 51:83–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2012.12.004
Zhao Q, Li R, Gao Y, Yao Q, Guo X et al (2018) Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of medicinal plant Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don. Plant Biosyst 152(3):349–355. https://doi.org/10.1080/11263504.2017.1289273
Acknowledgements
We thank Irene Hopton Scott, Membership Secretary, Royal Horticulture Society Lily Group, UK, for English language editing and review.
Funding
The field work was financially supported by the G. B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment and Sustainable Development, Almora, Uttarakhand, India (Grant No. GBP/IERP/UA/04-05/12/305). First author is grateful to Indian National Science Academy (INSA) for Visiting Scientist fellowship (Sanction No. INSA/SP/VS-16/2017-2018/505).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Communicated by Anne Bousquet-Melou
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dhyani, A., Kadaverugu, R., Nautiyal, B.P. et al. Predicting the potential distribution of a critically endangered medicinal plant Lilium polyphyllum in Indian Western Himalayan Region. Reg Environ Change 21, 30 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01763-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01763-5