Brick by Brick: Manu Ginobili (Part 1)
Written by Isaac O’Neill with additional editing and contributions by Chris Howson-Jan
Should Manu have more than two All-Star appearances?
There are numerous suspect Hall of Famers who can be exposed by simply examining All-Star appearances. Bill Bradley and Calvin Murphy both have one appearance. Much to my chagrin, Andre Iguodala will likely make it in with just one appearance to his name in 2012. There are also numerous players who played the bulk of their career outside the NBA, such as Arvydas Sabonis, Drazen Petrovic, and Oscar Schmidt.
But the only current modern NBA player to make it to the Hall of Fame with two appearances (or less) is Dennis Rodman.
Now, I don’t think this gives Manu haters a foot in the door to spout on about how if he’s not the greatest rebounder of all-time, he shouldn’t be in. I don’t really think it’s an argument. Manu will get in and deservedly so. His international career puts him well over the top. But this is a more roundabout way of asking the question; was Manu underrated?
An important footnote often lost in NBA history is throwaway All-Star seasons. These are ones where fans voted in players who were injured or retiring, and therefore. undeserving, and not debatably so. Think Kobe in his final season taking Damian Lillard’s spot. It’s a shame these appearances are not always as reliable as we’d like.
These seasons include:
- George Gervin (1984–85)
- Jordan (1985–86)
- Kareem (1988–89)
- Penny Hardaway (1997–98)
- Alonzo Mourning (2000–01)
- Grant Hill (2000–00)
- Yao Ming (2010–11)
- Durant (2014–15)
- Kobe (15–16)
- Dirk & Wade (2018–19)*
- *Dirk and Wade did not take away an All-Star nomination, but were added after voting took place, in order to prevent another situation similar to Kobe in 2016.
We are going to examine Manu’s prime years, to see whether or not he was snubbed in any other season for All-Star.
We are taking a 7 year stretch of Manu’s prime, which are conveniently book-ended by his two All-Star appearances, in 2004–05, and 2010–11. Before we dive in, we can throw out the 2008–09 where he was injured due to a torn ligament in his ankle. He played 44 games, 1200 minutes total, and every advanced stat points to it being his weakest when he was on the floor. He was certainly not an All-Star. That leaves us with four seasons to look at.
There are 62 real-ish cases of All-Stars playing under 2000 minutes a season. In his first All-Star appearance in 2004–05, he played just under 2200 minutes. Manu played the most minutes of his career in 2010–11 with over 2400. In 4/5 of his other prime years (the 5th being 08–09), he played somewhere between 1800–2300 minutes.
A stat I want to use as a lens to examine Manu is Win Shares per 48 minutes, or WS/48. Simply put, Win Shares estimates the number of wins a player contributes to his team per season. We can be reasonably sure they are helpful metrics because Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the all-time leader in Win Shares with 273.4, and Michael Jordan is the leader in WS/48 minutes, with .2505. Like most solid advanced stats, the cream rises to the top. We are going to use WS/48 for Manu because he is not among the higher load carrying players who average 38 minutes a game and naturally rack up more total Win Shares. It is helpful for players of his type because it measures his actual contribution to the team, despite lower minutes.
If you look at his 6 prime years, 2010–11 is his worst entry in terms of WS/48, where he averages 0.195. It is still a serviceable number among All-Star appearances, but not his best. He averages 0.233 WS/48 among his other five seasons. I know that efficiency tends to go down the more minutes one plays, but it seems the efficiency does not drop enough to warrant much of a glance. He remains at an All-Star caliber.
Now, you might be saying that minutes per game is also a factor. A guy who plays 60 games at 32 MPG is more likely to make All-Star than a guy who plays 82 at 25 MPG. That’s true, and rightfully so. But if you look at MPG, and a list of the lowest MPG among All-Stars, there are many seasons that stand out considerably more than any of Ginobili’s non All-Star seasons.
Excluding the throwaway All-Star appearances, Manu’s 04–05 season stands as the 19th lowest MPG average to make All-Star. His 10–11 season is 36th lowest. They are 2 of 50 total All-Star appearances from guys playing under 31 minutes a game post-1980. They are also both among the very best seasons under that benchmark, in both Win Shares and WS/48.
By my approximation, here are the 7 best seasons from the 50 All-Star seasons under 31 MPG (post-1980):
*Giannis obviously did not finish the 2019–20 campaign, where his WS would increase (likely to the best of this group), and his MPG would likely not increase, as the Bucks sat comfortably in the overall 1 seed.
So as you can see Manu’s 04–05 season stands among the very best All-Star seasons under 31 MPG. His 11 WS shares is second only to Robinson (and Giannis). And Robinson’s is not a traditional season listed here. He was an elite player who took a back seat to Tim Duncan after the Spurs drafted him 1st overall 3 years prior when Robinson missed the entire season due to injury. It’s reasonable to call it an anomaly. Ginobili’s 2011 campaign wasn’t quite as good, but still among the best ten overall. And as we mentioned, it’s probably not even one of his best seasons. So before we even check to see if there were suspect All-Star nominations over Ginobili in the West in those 4 years, we can assume that they are worthy of All-Star status, given the rarity with which other players are able to put up such good numbers on such low minutes.
Here are some advanced stats for Manu’s prime.
- Again, in yellow, are his two AS appearances.
- In green are seasons with his top two showings in some categories.
So most of his best statistics show up in the 2006–07, and 2007–08. Almost across the board. In 08 he played the second most games of his career, at the highest MPG, on the most points, rebounds, second most assists and steals, and the best in every advanced statistic. We’ve already established his weaker seasons were All-Star worthy, so conservatively, he has at least one other worthy season.
However, we know that selections are not always distributed fairly. The West has been stronger for 20 years, and it’s not hard to drop out in a stacked season at your position. Just ask Mike Conley or Damian Lillard.
Western Conference All-Star Guards:
- *Injured
- ** T-Mac played in starting lineup as forward, but a fifth guard added to bench.
- ***Parker replaced Dirk on bench, who replaced Yao in starting lineup due to injury.
- Italicized — made All-NBA and therefore not worth investigating legitimacy.
Spurs record by year:
Let’s work backwards. So in 2009–10, a year where Ginobili statistics were as consistently excellent as ever, and there were 3 injuries to Western conference guards, neither Parker or Ginobili made the roster because the Spurs finished 7th. It is probably a legitimate decision, as two or three players should not make All-Star on a 7th seed.
The bigger question marks surround the ‘07 and ‘08 All-Star games. Was Allen at the end of his Sonics tenure, and Iverson on the Nuggets, better than Ginobili or Parker? Was Iverson on an 8th seed and sophomore Brandon Roy on a 10th seed better than Manu on a 3rd seed? Tough to say. What we do know is Manu made 3rd Team All-NBA in 2008. (Other Western conference guards Kobe, Nash, and Paul, also made All-NBA, so we will not be examining their place in the All-Star Game.)
All-NBA Guards:
So Iverson made the starting roster for the AS game, but didn’t make All-NBA? He was traded from the Sixers, as the first or second most iconic player in franchise history, midway through the previous season to the Nuggets? Would a franchise legend who makes All-Star starter really get traded midway through the season if he was deserving? I can’t imagine so.
Here are some basic and advanced guard statistics:
In almost every conceivable category, Manu is superior. And for the basic counting stats, I took his per game numbers, rather than his per 100 possessions numbers, which would have only made him look better (because he played substantially less minutes). The only major differences between Manu and the other two, are Iverson’s points, and Iverson and Roy’s assists. WS is a volume statistic, and Manu is miles ahead of Roy, and barely behind Iverson. When you exam, WS/48, TS%, Box Plus/Minus, and VORP (Value above Replacement Player) it becomes clear how much more valuable he was when he was on the court. If you want to talk defence and rebounding, Manu laps the field as well (as you can in part see by the BPM stat).
Fortunately, these details were ironed out during All-NBA voting, but clearly the fans got this one wrong. Iverson is a unique figure, and Roy helped lead his team to a 13-game winning streak. His play did decline in the weeks following the All-Star game due to a lingering ankle injury. I am not firmly against the workhorses who drag mediocre teams to the playoffs sacrificing efficiency for necessary volume. But an 8th seed and a 10th seed don’t fit that mould. Especially with those statistics backing them.
Here’s, 2006–07:
So this is a tougher one. It’s Parker and Manu with superior advanced statistics. Ginobili’s are certainly better, with WS/48 and VORP really standing out. But Parker was the lead ball handler on the Spurs. Iverson and Allen’s stats don’t look great, but again, it is extremely difficult to find that balance of volume vs efficiency. In terms of standings, the Spurs finished 3rd, the Nuggets 6th, and the Supersonics 14th. Iverson finished 3rd in Western guard voting. Allen finished 8th in Western guard voting, a product of playing in a small market, and then was selected as a reserve by the coaches. So though they arrived differently, both are suspect. I can be a big defender of high volume scorers, however 14th is such a low seed, it’s hard to grasp, especially with other options. And Iverson’s lack of efficiency became less acceptable when you remember he was playing beside early prime Carmelo Anthony. They are two of the NBA’s most infamous chuckers, and unsurprisingly did not equal close to anything greater than the sum of their parts.
Here is another article examining All-Star candidacy using a different approach, and the numbers say the same thing.
So to recap. Out of his five prime years where he was not named All-Star, he was injured for one, and the Spurs finished 7th in another. That leaves three seasons. And by looking at one season, he was not only worthy of a spot, but deserving, based on the play of others nominated ahead of him. Given that in those other two seasons he put up similar numbers — and the Spurs had as good or better finishes record-wise — it’s conservative to say that at worst Manu is deserving of at least one more All-Star appearance.
As stated previously, Rodman is the only modern Hall of Famer with only two All-Star appearances.There are still no current Hall of Famers with 3 appearances who A) played in the modern game (post-1980) and B) didn’t spend part of their career in the ABA or the watered down 1970s ABA. The closest eligible player to those requirements is Jamaal Wilkes who played in the NBA from 1974–1985 for the Warriors, Lakers, and Clippers. Like Manu, he is a 4-time NBA champion.
Draymond Green, Marc Gasol, and Derrick Rose, are the only active players with three. Rose is certainly finished contending for any (and it’s unlikely that he’ll get in). Gasol will certainly get in with his resume of a DPoY, an NBA championship, a FIBA World Cup, and being the key player on a strong Western Conference team for years. Draymond will also certainly make the HoF, and he might hold the best comparisons. He was probably more integral to the Warriors than Ginobili was to the Spurs, but all can agree that their teams don’t win three and four championships, respectively, without them. Rodman is also a good comparison. He is more transcendent at rebounding and defence, but it should go without saying he can’t hold a candle to Ginobili offensively.
I don’t think the lack of Hall of Famers / likely Hall of Famers with so few All-Stars is reason to hum or haw at Ginobili’s candidacy for the Hall of Fame, or for the Top 100. He is a unique player with a unique career, of which there are many in the quirky history of the NBA. There are many other players on this list who were really good but not great who benefited from playing a role on a team with other great players. Draymond, Klay, Worthy, Pippen, Sam Jones, Robert Parish. One championship is grounds to be skeptical. I would hear arguments about why someone else in the league could have filled Marc Gasol’s role on the Raps in 2019, Kenny Smith on the 90’s Rockets, or Bob Dandridge on the ’71 Milwaukee Bucks (better examples?). But you cannot turn your nose up to four titles with the same team. It is simply too hard to win, and Ginobili played too integral a role.
