Canada had long been the largest trading partner of the US. But this year, Mexico jumped over Canada to take the top spot. However, our biggest trade deficit is still with China.
Through July, total goods trade with Mexico, imports plus exports, is $462 billion. Total trade with Canada is $450 billion and China is a distant third at $322 billion.
US Balance of Trade
If you wish to give Trump credit for reducing the trade deficit with China from $375 billion to $308 billion, then also give him credit for increasing the deficit with Mexico, Taiwan, and Vietnam from $124 billion to $211 billion.
Since Biden kept all of Trump’s tariffs intact, give all the remaining credit to Biden.
Trade Deficits 2023
So far this year, our goods trades deficit in 2023 through July is 88 billion with Mexico, 57 billion with Vietnam, $25 billion with Taiwan and $26 billion with India (not subtotaled elsewhere).
Our goods trades deficit in 2023 through July is a combined $170 billion with Mexico, Taiwan, and Vietnam. It’s $156 billion with China.
Spotlight Europe and Japan
The above chart is amusing.
Our trade deficit with Ireland was not really $67 billion in 2022. That number results from corporate tax shenanigans that make it appear Ireland is some sort of global powerhouse equivalent to Japan and within spitting distance of Germany.
Ireland has the lowest taxes in Europe so US companies have regional headquarters there to play various legal tax games.
The EU is mad at Ireland and of course the US progressives are mad at US corporations.
The US runs a trade surplus with the UK which Trump would call winning. Otherwise, it’s a big string of losses despite trade wars being good and easy to win.
Bombing Mexico
Republicans are mad at Mexico, so mad that at least three of them want to bomb Mexico, not over trade, but drugs.
They did not say how but I suspect drones. It doesn’t much matter how because that would clearly be an act of war that Congress gets to declare.
So far, Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump, and DeSantis have spoken in favor of attacking Mexico.
To stop the drug trade, NY magazine reported Trump Wanted to Fire Rockets Into Mexico and Pretend Like the U.S. Didn’t Do It.
Politico reports GOP Embraces a New Foreign Policy: Bomb Mexico to Stop Fentanyl.
Using military force on cartels without Mexico’s permission “would not be the preferred option, but we would absolutely be willing to do it,” entrepreneur and conservative activist Vivek Ramaswamy said in an interview.
Ramaswamy Needs a Civics Lesson
“It is our responsibility to preserve the Constitution,” said Ramaswamy in a Tweet.
What a hoot.
It might behoove Ramaswamy to learn civics himself. It is an act of war todo what he suggests.
Constitutionally, Congress, not the president gets to declare war. Article I, Section 8, Clause 11: [The Congress shall have Power . . . ] To declare War,
Bombing or sending US troops to Mexico is a belligerent act of war that constitutionally requires such a declaration.
But here we are causally proposing bombing or sending troops to Mexico without Mexico’s permission.
DeSantis was the Johnny-Come-Lately to this warmongering parade. In an attempt to catch the others, DeSantis said he would strike on day one. Lovely.
Hello Republican Candidates, You Can’t Beat Trump If You Sound Just Like Him
For further discussion, please see Hello Republican Candidates, You Can’t Beat Trump If You Sound Just Like Him
On Twitter, several people told me to stick to economics for discussing this sorry state of affairs.
Apologies offered for thinking that bombing Mexico, the largest trading partner of the US, just might have economic repercussions.
What the hell was I thinking? Regardless, who is it again that gets to declare war?
The next recession, which might be closer than most people believe, might sink the
Mexican bubble and the ev fantasy. Mexico might bomb itself.
If and when the US ever weans itself off of fossil fuels, trade with Canada will pretty much drop off the table since 1/3 of Canadian exports to the US are oil and gas related.
Automotive may also drop too depending on EV subsidies being US made only vs North American made.
Comparative advantage. Our serfs love drugs from Mexico. We export bombs and war. Print currency world accepts. What could go wrong
What did anyone expect?
If you want a great mole sauce, like from home, you can’t order it from Canada.
One of my kids loved hot cheetos but she suddenly switched to this brand of spicy snack. She said her friends eat them too so the prudent investor that I am, I started researching who makes these things and if I should buy some stock in it. After she started requesting these things, I noticed them in all the grocery stores and gas stations around here so clearly they are selling.
link to barcel-usa.com
I did some digging and it turns out the company that makes this is a subsidiary of Grupo Bimbo stock ticker: BIMBOA.MX. Check out their stock chart, very impressive growth and it pays a dividend. This stock is one of the top 10 holdings in EWW.
Choo! Choo! The conductor has explained the money train….who will get onboard at the right time?
have traded bimboa. lived by one of their plants in phoenix. also owned EWW. i trade FX too and the mexican peso has decent long term trends.
You just discovered Takis?
There’s a drink that supposedly has a lot of electrolytes in it called Gatorade. Might want to look into that too.
But the best poutine comes from Canada
We used to have a small trade surplus with Mexico. Unfortunately the US has become a massive welfare state that can’t afford making most things since it’s not profitable for companies. We would have to sell it cheaper than them. Now who’s fault is that?
Partially unions. The UAW strike is going to result in more auto production in Mexico.
For Mexico, we should add in the drug trade. Also, add in remittances and we are even further in the hole.
With all that money flowing to Mexico, why is it still a place people want to leave?
They aren’t, as Mexico economy has improved the crossings by Mexicans has gone down. The “all other” category has gone up. I suspect if Trump starts bombing Mexico the border crossing would surge 10x fold.
link to migrationpolicy.org
Why aren’t Democrats warning them to stay away, since they claim the U.S. is a systemically racist country?
Research drug cartels operating in California, Washington, or Oregon.
You’ll quickly learn how much control they have already.
Just to add to the parade, Trump also suggested taking back the Panama canal. His logic: we built it, we own it, treaties be damned.
I expect war against the world when any of them get elected.
When trump was president, we didn’t get involved in any new wars. Who was the last president who could say the same?
Biden, Bibi & MBS peace plan collapsed yesterday. Biden blame Israel.
What was the last war that was approved by congress? I think it was WW2.
Global War on scary things, i mean TERROR. the most idiotic thing, but perfect for pax dumbfuckistan.
Much celebration in Chicago this past weekend!
Mexico ETF up 22.50% this year. Will it continue? I think I will sell naked puts on this baby next time it corrects.
link to finance.yahoo.com
Ah Ha! I knew you have been selling naked puts!
He mentioned selling them on the homebuilders too.
Wrong. I bought puts on XHB and home builders meaning I am short those equities. The puts go UP in value as the stocks value goes DOWN. They expire in January 2024.
Selling naked puts would obligate me to BUY/go long EWW at a certain strike price. I would sell the $45 strikes when they reach juicy premium levels, if ever. I expect an overall market correction in October or November, sooner if the Fed surprises.
Come on guys, you need to learn options trading. It’s one of the most valuable money trains…Choo! Choo!
No. He has been selling puts naked. There is a difference.
Lol. That too! You made me laugh Doug…
Consistency is key. The fact that we are running deficits with everyone (w/possible exception of Vietnam) shows that … our basis sucks … but we are consistent about it.
Hello All, Message from Mish:
Mike Shedlock
September 19, 2023
I am on the road much of the day. Two posts scheduled but I will not be able to approve comments that get caught in any filters.
Someone please repeat that for me on the next two scheduled posts this morning and shortly after noon Mountain Time.
Mike Shedlock
September 19, 2023
I am on the road much of the day. Two posts scheduled but I will not be able to approve comments that get caught in any filters.
Someone please repeat that for me on the next two scheduled posts this morning and shortly after noon Mountain Time.
whoops. you posted it too. sorry owners and serfs.