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UFC 270 breakdown: Why Francis Ngannou will knock out Ciryl Gane

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 270.

Francis Ngannou (16-3 MMA, 11-2 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 263 lbs. Reach: 83″
  • Last fight: Knockout win over Stipe Miocic (March 27, 2021)
  • Camp: Xtreme Couture (Las Vegas, Nevada)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ UFC heavyweight champion
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ 12 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
+ Deceptive feints and footwork
^ Closes distance quickly
+ Accurate left hand
^ Jabs, crosses, check-hooks
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively

Ciryl Gane (10-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’4″ Age: 31 Weight: 247 lbs. Reach: 81″
  • Last fight: TKO win over Derrick Lewis (Aug. 7, 2021)
  • Camp: MMA Factory (Paris, France)
  • Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ UFC interim heavyweight champion
+ Regional MMA title
+ 2x French muay Thai champion
+ 4 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Creative feints and footwork
^ Changers tempo/shifts stances
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Goes to the body and attacks legs
+ Works well inside the clinch
^ Solid wrist controls and setups
+ Shows surprising submission game

Point of interest: Clash of styles

Francis Ngannou (red gloves) fights Jairzinho Rozenstruik (blue gloves) during UFC 249 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. (Jasen Vinlove, USA TODAY Sports)

The main event for UFC 270 features an intriguing clash of styles for the heavyweight title.

A former soccer player who found a taste for muay Thai, Ciryl Gane appears to represent the hopes of many in regards to the potential of heavyweight athletes transitioning into mixed martial arts.
Aside from looking the part aesthetically, Gane – more importantly – demonstrates an ability to both sponge and sequence techniques, as he certainly moves well beyond his years.

Showing that he can switch stances with substance, Gane seems competent from both sides as he smoothly shifts tempo on his attacks. From changing the speed on his kicks to pot-shotting punches and checks, Gane appears fully capable of both frustrating and punishing his opposition.

In addition, Gane’s somewhat fast-and-loose style has even proved to hold up in the smaller octagon, as the 31-year-old’s distance management and proprioception appear to be impeccable. Nevertheless, I still suspect that Gane will look to utilize the entirety of the regulation-sized octagon when he squares off with former training partner, Francis Ngannou.

A Cameroonian-born Parisian who practically came from nothing, the rise of Ngannou has been fascinating to watch.

Originally hailing from the same gym as Gane, Ngannou also stepped onto the UFC scene as a striker who could fight from either stance. Whether he’s hitting counter crosses from southpaw or taking heads off with shovel hooks from orthodox, Ngannou seems to favor conducting traffic off of his left side.

Although Ngannou still shows traces of the fighter that Fernand Lopez brought to market, the incumbent champion has made some clear strides since settling into his new home in Las Vegas at Xtreme Couture.

Under the care of coaches like Eric Nicksick and Dewey Cooper, Ngannou has shown solid fundamentals that help him stay on balance regardless of whether he is advancing or countering. Sure, Ngannou may have blitzed Jairzinho Rozenstruik like a madman back at UFC 249, but there’s no denying the skill and process that was on display during his rematch with Stipe Miocic.

Against Miocic, Ngannou demonstrated the poise and cage positioning needed to deconstruct high-level opposition.

From an educated lead hand to the smart body and leg work, Ngannou cleverly closed the distance with small steps and the occasional pivot. And when feeling in stride, Ngannou unleashed a sweet shifting combination that was the beginning of the end for the former champion in Miocic.

That said, I will be curious to see the “where’s” and “when’s” of Ngannou’s shifting tactics given the countering options that Gane will have laying in wait.

Point of interest: Coming through in the clinch

Ciryl Gane (blue gloves) reacts during the fight against Derrick Lewis (red gloves) during UFC 265 at Toyota Center. (Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports)

Considering Gane’s propensity to utilize the clinch in a multitude of ways, I will be curious to see how much the undefeated prospect elects to grapple with a hard-hitting threat like Ngannou.

Not only can Gane flip the script with things like reactive shots in the open, but the athletic heavyweight also conducts himself well inside of clinches. Utilizing diligent wrist controls, Gane can keep tabs on his opponent’s intentions, all while keeping hard knees or sneaky elbows in play.

Should Gane look to hit foot sweeps or takedowns in these spots, then Ngannou will have to be ready to defend everything from leg locks to head-and-arm chokes. That said, the Frenchman may have more obstacles than just uppercuts and knees when it comes to getting the champ down.

Ngannou is not so deceptively strong inside the clinch, commanding a solid base and balance for a man of his size. He also shows the competence to try and keep his opponent’s arms separated during their takedown attempts (a very important detail), as well as a solid sprawl in open space.

More importantly, Ngannou seems to have a knack for counter-wrestling, which is something that I suspect Gane and his team will need to be mindful of.

As we saw in his rematch with Miocic, Ngannou is not afraid to reverse the grappling initiative on his foes, displaying glimpses of some of the hallmarks that his new gym is known for. I’m not sure how much energy the champion will look to exert in that regard, but Gane will still need to be on his best behavior inside of scrambles given Ngannou’s propensity to throw strikes in transitionary phases.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

Despite the oddsmakers setting the sitting champion as a slight favorite, public money has come pouring in on the interim champion, listing Gane -155 and Ngannou +120 via Tipico Sportsbook.

Even with my stated bias toward coach Nicksick (given my history with Xtreme Couture), I can still completely understand the support coming in on the Gane side of things.

Gane is clearly a unique heavyweight whose technique, movement and proprioception are beyond his peers. Should Gane’s style frustrate Ngannou early and often, then no one should be shocked to see the MMA Factory representative pull away with prodding attacks and punishing checks down the stretch.

I once compared Ngannou to Sonny Liston and Alistair Overeem to Floyd Patterson in a previous breakdown.

Although the result above remains as one of my more proud calls as an analyst, I can’t help but wonder if Gane is the Cassius Clay of this equation. I mean, “Bon Gamin” may not be as brash as Muhammad Ali, but a lot of the proverbial pieces will be in play this Saturday.

That said, I can’t help but see certain defensive liabilities that have me going the other way.

Although Gane has a great feel for strikes and defense, I suspect that his habit of using the clinch to reset could cost him against the champion. Not only can Ngannou flip the script with counter wrestling, but his striking in and out of separations may also pay big dividends.

Should Ngannou demonstrate the same discipline and coachability that was on display back at UFC 260, then we will likely see him target the body and legs of Gane as he attempts to corrall him along the cage (a place where the Frenchman’s defenses start to show holes). Whether it be a shifting right hand or a counter left hook, the official pick is for Ngannou to find his mark by the second round.

Prediction: Ngannou inside the distance

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