Tropical Storm Don: Latest Predicted Path In Atlantic

FLORIDA — Unless there's a sudden shift in the tropical storm's trajectory, it looks as if the only Don making waves in Florida this week is the former U.S. president.

During its 10 a.m. Tuesday outlook, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Tropical Storm Don is continuing to move southeastward with little change in strength after forming in the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend. Its forecast patch keeps it well off the East Coast of the U.S., it may brush Canada's maritime provinces.

The cyclone's motion is expected to continue curving clockwise over the next several days, steered by a building mid-level ridge that is forecast to shift southwestward to northwestward. Eventually, this ridge will move to the northeast.

TS Don is about 705 miles west of the Azores, an archipelago in the mid-Atlantic about 3,270 miles from the United States. It is moving at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

"Don is forecast to turn southward later today or tonight or so, followed by a turn westward and then northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively," said NHC forecaster Jack Beven. "On the forecast track, Don should remain over the open waters of the central Atlantic."

Beven said there could be a slight strengthening of the storm over the next couple of days with tropical storm-force winds extending up to 105 miles northeast of the center.

This could make things rocky for fishing boats and ships in the Atlantic, with the storm whipping up 12-foot seas. The NHC will issue reports every three hours to ships within 300 miles of the storm to keep the crews apprised.

TS Don is the latest tropical storm in a season that began relatively early this year with Arlene on June 2, followed by Brett and Cindy. The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

Related:

• Rare June Tropical Storms Bret, Cindy May Be Tied To Climate Change
• Storm Surge Forecast, Better Communication Priority For NHC Head
• 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What It Means In Florida

• 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released By CSU Researchers
• 2023 Hurricane, Tropical Storm Names Released For Atlantic Season

New Forecasting Tools Unveiled

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization's National Hurricane Center — a division of the National Weather Service — unveiled a new model last week to help produce hurricane forecasts this season.

The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) was put into operation on June 27 and will run alongside existing models for the 2023 season before replacing them as NOAA’s premier hurricane forecasting model.

"The quick deployment of HAFS marks a milestone in NOAA's commitment to advancing our hurricane forecasting capabilities, and ensuring continued improvement of services to the American public," said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. "Development, testing and evaluations were jointly carried out between scientists at NOAA Research and the National Weather Service, marking a seamless transition from development to operations.”

Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 showed a 10-15 percent improvement in track predictions compared to NOAA’s existing hurricane models.

HAFS is expected to continue increasing forecast accuracy, therefore reducing storm impacts to lives and property.

Like the existing hurricane models, HAFS can forecast a storm's intensity but is better at predicting rapid intensification, Spinrad said.

HAFS was the first model last year to accurately predict that Hurricane Ian would undergo secondary rapid intensification as the storm moved off the coast of Cuba and barreled toward southwest Florida.

Over the next four years, HAFS will undergo several major upgrades, ultimately leading to increased accuracy of forecasts, warnings and life-saving information. An objective of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is to reduce all model forecast errors by nearly half in 2027 compared to errors seen in 2017.

Spinrad said HAFS provides more accurate, higher-resolution forecast information both over land and ocean.

“With the introduction of the HAFS forecast model into our suite of tropical forecasting tools, our forecasters are better equipped than ever to safeguard lives and property with enhanced accuracy and timely warnings,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “HAFS is the result of strong collaborative efforts throughout the science community and marks significant progress in hurricane prediction.”

HAFS is the first new major forecast model implemented using NOAA’s updated weather and climate supercomputers, which were installed last summer to improve hurricane prediction and warnings under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program.

Webinars For Coastal Communities

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center will host the Blue Water Mariner webinars on Hurricane Forecasting in two live online seminars Thursday, July 20 from 2 to 3 p.m. and Friday, July 21 from 3 to 4 p.m.

Geared to city and county elected officials and staff, emergency management directors and state leaders who want to learn more about protecting their communities, the free webinars will focus on flood-prone communities along the coast.

The webinar on Thursday will highlight hurricane analysis and prediction. Click here to register.

The Friday webinar will focus on wind and wave forecasting. Click here to register.

Hurricane Season Predictions

In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its hurricane outlook for the 2023 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, saying the Atlantic coast of the U.S. can expect a "near normal" year that could include four major hurricanes that are a category 3 or higher.

NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these named storms, anywhere from five to nine could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher.