simulated mark-recapture:. Activity 1 – simple mark-recapture

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1 simulated mark-recapture:. Activity 1 – simple mark-recapture
simulated mark-recapture: Activity 1 – simple mark-recapture activity 2 – repeated mark-recapture succession on a small scale: Activity 3A – winogradsky column monitoring Week of March 19th 2018 Ver Last updated: 3/17/2018 8:23:21 PM

2 Simulated Mark-Recapture Activity 1 – Simple Mark-Recapture

3 Sampling An efficient way to accurately estimate population size with minimal effort. Not feasible to count every individual. Population Sample

4 Mark-recapture technique
Release back into natural population First capture Second capture Actually “capture- mark-release- recapture”. Important when sampling mobile organisms.

5 Place 4-6 small handfuls of light-colored beans into a paper bag.
Table 1.1. Population guess, count and calculated population estimate based on numbers of captured, marked and recaptured individuals using mark-recapture technique Place 4-6 small handfuls of light-colored beans into a paper bag. This represents a population of organisms. Guess how many beans you placed in the paper bag. Record guess (Table 1.1). Parameter Value Expression Guess of population size = 57 = uncounted guess of total number of beans placed in bag at beginning M = = # of beans in first handful “captured” n = = # beans in second handful “captured”, regardless of color m = = # beans in second handful “captured” dark (= marked) N = = population estimate (eqn 2) Count population size = = actual physical count of total number of beans in bag at end % accuracy of N = = percent accuracy of calculated N relative to actual count of population size

6 57 11 Take a handful of beans out of the paper bag.
Table 1.1. Population guess, count and calculated population estimate based on numbers of captured, marked and recaptured individuals using mark-recapture technique Parameter Value Expression Guess of population size = 57 = uncounted guess of total number of beans placed in bag at beginning M = 11 = # of beans in first handful “captured” n = = # beans in second handful “captured”, regardless of color m = = # beans in second handful “captured” dark (= marked) N = = population estimate (eqn 2) Count population size = = actual physical count of total number of beans in bag at end % accuracy of N = = percent accuracy of calculated N relative to actual count of population size Take a handful of beans out of the paper bag. This represents your first capture (sample) of a group of organisms (M) from the population. Count these beans and record the number as the value for M in Table 1.1. DO NOT return these beans to the paper bag.

7 Mark the organisms (beans) you just captured.
To mark these beans, simply replace them with dark- colored beans. Release marked beans back into bag. Shake bag to mix marked beans back into population.

8 57 11 14 Without looking, grab a handful of beans from paper bag.
Table 1.1. Population guess, count and calculated population estimate based on numbers of captured, marked and recaptured individuals using mark-recapture technique Parameter Value Expression Guess of population size = 57 = uncounted guess of total number of beans placed in bag at beginning M = 11 = # of beans in first handful “captured” n = 14 = # beans in second handful “captured”, regardless of color m = = # beans in second handful “captured” dark (= marked) N = = population estimate (eqn 2) Count population size = = actual physical count of total number of beans in bag at end % accuracy of N = = percent accuracy of calculated N relative to actual count of population size Without looking, grab a handful of beans from paper bag. This is your second capture (sample) of a group of organisms (n). Count the total number of beans you grabbed in this handful (regardless of color) and record the count as the value for n in Table 1.1.

9 57 11 14 3 Examine the handful of beans you just gathered.
Table 1.1. Population guess, count and calculated population estimate based on numbers of captured, marked and recaptured individuals using mark-recapture technique Parameter Value Expression Guess of population size = 57 = uncounted guess of total number of beans placed in bag at beginning M = 11 = # of beans in first handful “captured” n = 14 = # beans in second handful “captured”, regardless of color m = 3 = # beans in second handful “captured” dark (= marked) N = = population estimate (eqn 2) Count population size = = actual physical count of total number of beans in bag at end % accuracy of N = = percent accuracy of calculated N relative to actual count of population size Examine the handful of beans you just gathered. Count the number of beans that were "marked" (m) (dark-colored), record this number as m. When you are finished counting, return this entire sample to the paper bag (both the light-colored and dark-colored beans).

10 Use Equation 2 to calculate population estimate N.
Table 1.1. Population guess, count and calculated population estimate based on numbers of captured, marked and recaptured individuals using mark-recapture technique Parameter Value Expression Guess of population size = 57 = uncounted guess of total number of beans placed in bag at beginning M = 11 = # of beans in first handful “captured” n = 14 = # beans in second handful “captured”, regardless of color m = 3 = # beans in second handful “captured” dark (= marked) N = 51 = population estimate (eqn 2) Count population size = = actual physical count of total number of beans in bag at end % accuracy of N = = percent accuracy of calculated N relative to actual count of population size Use Equation 2 to calculate population estimate N. Equation 2: N = Mn / m Where: N = Population estimate M = Number of individuals captured in first sample (and marked) n=Total number of individuals captured in second sample m=Number of individuals captured n second sample (n) and marked N = (11 x 14)/3 N = 51.33 N = 51

11 (N/count) * 100 = % accuracy
Table 1.1. Population guess, count and calculated population estimate based on numbers of captured, marked and recaptured individuals using mark-recapture technique Table 1.1. Population guess, count and calculated population estimate based on numbers of captured, marked and recaptured individuals using mark-recapture technique Parameter Value Expression Guess of population size = 57 = uncounted guess of total number of beans placed in bag at beginning M = 11 = # of beans in first handful “captured” n = 14 = # beans in second handful “captured”, regardless of color m = 3 = # beans in second handful “captured” dark (= marked) N = 51 = population estimate (eqn 2) Count population size = 63 = actual physical count of total number of beans in bag at end % accuracy of N = 80.95% = percent accuracy of calculated N relative to actual count of population size Count actual total number of beans (both light-colored and dark-colored) in the paper bag, record count in Table 1.1. Calculate and record in Table 1.1 the percent accuracy of N relative to the count of the population size: (N/count) * 100 = % accuracy (51/63) x 100 = percent accuracy 80.95% = percent accuracy

12 Table 1.2. Group data for guess of population size, calculated N, count of population and percent accuracy of N using simple mark-recapture technique Values by Group Group # Parameter 1 2 3 4 5 6 Guess of population size N Count of population size % accuracy of N Record (Table 1.2) all group data for guessing the population size, calculated N, count of population size, and percent accuracy of N for simple and repeated mark-recapture technique.

13 Simulated Mark-Recapture Activity 2 – Repeated Mark-Recapture

14 # Marked Individuals in Population (M1)
Table 2.1. Population guess and count, and calculated population estimate based on numbers captured, marked and recaptured individuals using repeated mark-recapture technique. Capture # # Marked Individuals in Population (M1) # Captured (C1) # Recaptured (R1) 1 M1= C1= R1= 2 M2= C2= R2= 3 M3= C3= R3= 4 M4= C4= R4= Guess of population size= 382 N (calculated w/ Eq. 3)= Count of population size= Percent accuracy of N= Place 4-6 small handfuls of light-colored beans in paper bag. Do not count the beans. Guess how many beans you placed in the paper bag. Record guess in Table 2.1.

15 # Marked Individuals in Population (M1)
Table 2.1. Population guess and count, and calculated population estimate based on numbers captured, marked and recaptured individuals using repeated mark-recapture technique. Capture # # Marked Individuals in Population (M1) # Captured (C1) # Recaptured (R1) 1 M1= C1= 17 R1= 2 M2= C2= R2= 3 M3= C3= R3= 4 M4= C4= R4= Guess of population size= 382 N (calculated w/ Eq. 3)= Count of population size= Percent accuracy of N= Take a handful of beans out of the paper bag. This represents your first capture (sample) of a group of organisms (C1). Count beans, record as C1 for capture 1 in Table 2.1. DO NOT return these beans to the paper bag.

16 # Marked Individuals in Population (M1)
Table 2.1. Population guess and count, and calculated population estimate based on numbers captured, marked and recaptured individuals using repeated mark-recapture technique. Capture # # Marked Individuals in Population (M1) # Captured (C1) # Recaptured (R1) 1 M1= C1= 17 R1= 2 M2= C2= R2= 3 M3= C3= R3= 4 M4= C4= R4= Guess of population size= 382 N (calculated w/ Eq. 3)= Count of population size= Percent accuracy of N= Mark the organisms (beans) you captured. Replace them with dark-colored beans (# of marked individuals in the population). Record # of marked beans as M2 for capture 2 in Table 2.1. Note that M1 for capture 1 is 0 because there were originally no marked individuals.

17 # Marked Individuals in Population (M1)
Table 2.1. Population guess and count, and calculated population estimate based on numbers captured, marked and recaptured individuals using repeated mark-recapture technique. Capture # # Marked Individuals in Population (M1) # Captured (C1) # Recaptured (R1) 1 M1= C1= 17 R1= 2 M2= C2= 20 R2= 7 3 M3= C3= R3= 4 M4= C4= R4= Guess of population size= 382 N (calculated w/ Eq. 3)= Count of population size= Percent accuracy of N= Release marked beans bag into bag, shake to mix. Without looking, grab a handful of beans from bag, which becomes your second capture. Count total beans in handful (any color) and record as C2 in Table 2.1. Examine this handful, determine # of marked (dark-colored) record R2 in Table.

18 # Marked Individuals in Population (M1)
Table 2.1. Population guess and count, and calculated population estimate based on numbers captured, marked and recaptured individuals using repeated mark-recapture technique. Capture # # Marked Individuals in Population (M1) # Captured (C1) # Recaptured (R1) 1 M1= C1= 17 R1= 2 M2= C2= 20 R2= 7 3 M3= 30 C3= 23 R3= 5 4 M4= C4= R4= Guess of population size= 382 N (calculated w/ Eq. 3)= Count of population size= Percent accuracy of N= Mark unmarked beans from capture 2; return previously and newly marked to bag and mix. NOTE M3 is now total of ALL # marked beans. Without looking, grab a handful of beans from bag (third capture). Count # of beans in handful (regardless of color) and record as C3 in Table 2.1. Determine # of marked (dark-colored) record R3 in Table 2.1.

19 # Marked Individuals in Population (M1)
Table 2.1. Population guess and count, and calculated population estimate based on numbers captured, marked and recaptured individuals using repeated mark-recapture technique. Capture # # Marked Individuals in Population (M1) # Captured (C1) # Recaptured (R1) 1 M1= C1= 17 R1= 2 M2= C2= 20 R2= 7 3 M3= 30 C3= 23 R3= 5 4 M4= 48 C4= 26 R4= 8 Guess of population size= 382 N (calculated w/ Eq. 3)= Count of population size= Percent accuracy of N= Mark the unmarked beans from capture 3. Return previously and newly marked to bag and mix; M4 = total marked beans. Without looking, grab a handful of beans from bag, which becomes 4th capture. Count total # of beans in handful (regardless of color) and record as C4. Examine this handful, determine # of marked (dark-colored) record R4.

20 # Marked Individuals in Population (M1)
Table 2.1. Population guess and count, and calculated population estimate based on numbers captured, marked and recaptured individuals using repeated mark-recapture technique. Capture # # Marked Individuals in Population (M1) # Captured (C1) # Recaptured (R1) 1 M1= C1= 17 R1= 2 M2= C2= 20 R2= 7 3 M3= 30 C3= 23 R3= 5 4 M4= 48 C4= 26 R4= 8 Guess of population size= 382 N (calculated w/ Eq. 3)= 114 Count of population size= Percent accuracy of N= Equation 3: M2C2+M3C3+M4C4 N = R2+R3+R4 N = ((17x20)+(30x23)+(48x26))/(7+5+8) N = ( )/ 20 N = 2278/20 = = 114 Calculate the population estimate (N) using Equation 3 from the introduction and record the answer in Table 2.1.

21 # Marked Individuals in Population (M1)
Table 2.1. Population guess and count, and calculated population estimate based on numbers captured, marked and recaptured individuals using repeated mark-recapture technique. Percent accuracy of N = (114/125) x 100 Percent accuracy of N = x 100 = 91.2% Capture # # Marked Individuals in Population (M1) # Captured (C1) # Recaptured (R1) 1 M1= C1= 17 R1= 2 M2= C2= 20 R2= 7 3 M3= 30 C3= 23 R3= 5 4 M4= 48 C4= 26 R4= 8 Guess of population size= 382 N (calculated w/ Eq. 3)= 114 Count of population size= 125 Percent accuracy of N= 91.2% Count actual total number of beans (both light-colored and dark-colored combined) in , record count in Table 2.1 (p. 467). Calculate percent accuracy N = (N/count) x 100, record in Table.

22 Table 2.2. Comparison of class-level data of guess of population size, calculated population size (N), count of population size and accuracy of N for repeated mark-recapture . Value by Group # Parameter 1 2 3 4 5 6 Guess of population size= N= Count of population size= Percent accuracy of N= Record (Table 2.2) all group data for guess of population size, calculated N, count of population size, and percent accuracy of N for simple and repeated mark-recapture technique.

23 Value by Mark-Recapture Method
Table 2.3. Comparison of individual group-level data for guess of population size, calculated population size (N), count of population size and accuracy of N for simple mark-recapture versus repeated mark-recapture Value by Mark-Recapture Method Parameter Simple Repeated Guess of population size= 57 382 N= 51 114 Count of population size= 63 125 Percent accuracy of N= 80.95 91.2 Record (Table 2.3) your group’s data for guess of population size, calculated N, count of population size, and percent accuracy of N for simple and repeated mark-recapture technique.

24 Succession on A Small Scale – Activity 3 – Winogradksy Column Monitoring – Part A – Mid-Semester Observation

25 Winogradsky Column Mid-Semester Observation
Column: Standard (Control) Column: Treatment Qualitative only. DO NOT UNSEAL OR OPEN COLUMNS!!! Sketch or describe (Fig. 3.1).

26 What’s Due Weekly Data Sheets: (Due Today) P. 459, 467 and 637.
Weekly Write-Ups: (Due Next Class) P. 463 and 471. Remember: Bring your lab report drafts next week! PowerPoint available at