Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Policies for C C Impacts on the Nile Delta Coastal Zones By Prof. Dr. Ibrahim Abdelmagid Elshinnawy Director of.

Presentation on theme: "Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Policies for C C Impacts on the Nile Delta Coastal Zones By Prof. Dr. Ibrahim Abdelmagid Elshinnawy Director of."— Presentation transcript:

1 Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Policies for C C Impacts on the Nile Delta Coastal Zones By Prof. Dr. Ibrahim Abdelmagid Elshinnawy Director of Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) National Water Research Center (NWRC)

2 Global Perspective

3 Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land ice and ice sheets

4 Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year 0.8 mm/year 2.0 mm/year Global Mean Sea Level from Tidal Gauge observations around the world

5 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time 100 0.074  0.018 50 0.128  0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate Years  /decade

6 Contribution to Sea Level by Thermal Expansion Rate = 0.4 mm/year (1955-2004) -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 19601970198019902000  MSL (mm) Year

7 Contribution to Sea Level by Mountain Glaciers 1961-2003: 0.5 mm/year 0 5 10 15 20 25 196019701980199020002010  MSL (mm) Year

8 Sea Level Budget (IPCC-2007, mm/year) Thermal Expansion Mountain Glaciers Greenland Ice Melt Antarctic Ice Melt Land Water Storage Total of Observed Contributions + + + = Observed Sea Level Change 1.6 ± 0.5 0.8 ± 0.2 0.2 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.3 ? 2.8 ± 0.7 1993-20031961-2003 0.4 ± 0.1 0.5 ± 0.2 0.1 ± 0.1 0.1 ± 0.4 ? 1.1 ± 0.5 3.1 ± 0.71.8 ± 0.5

9 1.According to observations and measurements, average global increase in sea level is 1-2 mm/year. 2.Mean Sea Level is projected to rise by 0.18 m to 0.59 m by 2100, But with Significant Regional Variations, IPCC 2007)

10 (Chappell & Shackleton, 1986) Global sea-level change over the past 160,000 years Sea level highly variable due to natural processes Sea level highly variable due to natural processes Sea level -120 m lower and +4-6 m higher than present Sea level -120 m lower and +4-6 m higher than present

11 Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase during the 21st century according to special report on emission reduction scenarios (SRES)

12 Projected global averaged surface warming and sea level rise till 2100, IPCC-2007 Sea Level Rise (m) (Relative to 1980-1999) Temperature Change (Relative to 1980-1999 °C) Scenario Model-based range excluding future rapid dynamical exchange in the ice flow Best EstimateCase Not available0.6Constant year 2000 concentrations 0.18-0.38 0.20-0.45 0.20-0.43 0.21-0.48 0.23-0.51 0.26-0.59 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.0 B1 Scenario A1T Scenario B2 Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario A1F1 Scenario

13 Scenarios by Projected SLR for the Nile Delta.

14 Global Models

15 Attributed trends depend on observations not model simulated trends Original model trend Observations Time Temperature + internal variability

16 Attributed trends depend on observations not model simulated trends Original model trend Observations Scaling Lower Upper Attributed trend Time Temperature + internal variability + uncertainty estimate

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18 Rain Gauge Network 1950-2000

19 CoRI Activities

20 Impact of climate changes on coastal zones was investigated by MWRI, Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) and Delft Hydraulics, Netherlands (1989-1992) The study at that time has estimated the sea level rise impact on all the entire coastal zones of Egypt (3500 km) in terms of quality and quantity. The study focused on the Nile Delta coast as it has been considered the most vulnerable area in the coastal zones of Egypt The study estimated the impacts of sea level rise if water has raisin by 1m, 2m, and 3m as shown in the figure.

21 Egyptian Coastline 15 Coastal Segments for Vulnerability Assessment Study

22 Results of the study show the vulnerable areas to sea level rise in the Nile Delta with different water levels 1m zone 2m zone 3m zone

23 Areas of Ecological interest in the Red Sea area

24 Vulnerability Analysis Physical Mechanisms Shoreline erosion/accretion Flood frequency Directly exposed hydraulic structures : e.g. ports, commercial facilities, fish farms Salinity intrusion Major Impact and possible losses Water level, waves characteristics, sediment flow, salinity levels Ecological sustainability Socio-economic responses, recreational capacity, tourism Agricultural activities and drainage conditions Fresh groundwater availability

25 Conclusion & Recommendations (1992) Conclusions If no response strategies are planned, major adverse impacts and serious losses are expected in terms of: Deficiency in infrastructure functionality Community displacement Ecological deterioration Penetration of salt wedge Deficiency in drainage capacity Recommendations A comprehensive national response strategy Coordinative actions to minimize risks and maintain ecosystem Preparation of integrated coastal zone management scheme Regular monitoring of vulnerable regions Further studies & follow up of technological developments

26 Vulnerable areas defined by CoRI and Delft in 1992. Vulnerable areas defined by IPCC in 2007 Results by CoRI & Delft (1992) and IPCC (2006) are comparable Because both studies ignored the morphological features of the coastal zone of the Nile Delta as (coastal sand dunes and ridges).

27 MWRI (Coastal Research Institute) increased its activities to define precisely the vulnerable areas taking into account the morphological features of the Nile Delta coastal zones (Sand dunes and Ridges) About 200 hydrographic beach profiles along the Nile Delta coast

28 Mediterranean Sea BURULLUS Idku Lagoon NILE DELTA Manzala Lagoon Gamasa ROSETTA PROMONTORY DAMIETTA PROMONTORY Port Said Suez Canal Baltim Burullus Lagoon Abu Quir Bay  20km 0 30 o 00'30 o 30'31 o 00' 31 o 30' 32 o 00' 32 o 30' 31 o 00' 31 o 30' 32 o 00' Beach and backshore DesertCoastal Dunes Old Dunes Cultivated Land Northern Coast Ridge توزيع الكثبان الرملية على طول دلتا نهر النيل

29 Accretion and Erosion Patterns, Nile Delta Coasts

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31 City Population (Thousands) Increase of Population (Thousands) % of Increase 2006200720082006/20072007/20082006/20072007/2008 Alexandria412441654238417311.7 Damietta10971112113715251.42.2 Port Said5715765885120.92

32 Trend and Accelerated Sea Level Rise (ASLR) Measured Along the Nile Delta Coast. (CoRI-2007), First Scenario Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2100 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2075 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2050 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2025 Average Annual ASLT (Cm) Station 16.012.08.04.00.16Alex. 23.016.2511.55.750.23 A l- B urullus 53.039.7526.513.250.53Port Said

33 Two Modules have been developed and in each module three scenarios were established The first scenario was established by assuming that the same rate of temperature change (0.6 ºC over the last century) will occur till 2100. The second scenario was established by temperature projection till 2100. Temperature change is assumed to be 1.8 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century. The third scenario was established by temperature projection to be 4.0 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century.

34 Mediterranean Hydrological Factors Area = 2.5 million km2 Max Depth = 4400 m Ave Depth = 1500 m Water Vol. = 3.7 million km3 Water body comprises 3 layers with different temperature and salinity profiles Surface layer (75-300 m depth) Intermediate layer (300-600 m depth) Lower layer (more than 600 m depth)

35 Mediterranean Annual Water Balance Evaporation 4144 km3 Income rainfall 1000 km3 River flow230 km3 Black Sea flow152 km3 Total Inflow1382 km3 Deficit2762 km3 This deficit is compensated by 40,000 m3/s from Atlantic Ocean through Gabal Tarek straight in an anti-clockwise flow as water level in eastern side of the sea is 80 cm lower than that in the ocean due to increased evaporation rates difference.

36 Preliminary Results Module (1) Business as usual

37 Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100, (CoRI 2007) 2050 2025 20752100

38 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area According to CoRI measurements till 2100 (Without Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders) 2100207520502025 Year 832.7748.4691.8633.8 Total Area Affected (km2) 3.333.02.572.53 Total % of the Nile Delta Area

39 Expected SLR Till 2100 by Projected Increase in Air Temperature (B1 Scenario( 2100207520502025Year 1.8 1.30.9 Temperature ( ºC) 28 cm27 cm16.0 cm7.0 cm ASLR at Alexandria 35.0 cm32.25 cm19.5 cm8.75 cm ASLR at Al-Burullus 72.5 cm64.3 cm39.5 cm18.12 cm ASLR at Port Said

40 Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario 2050 2025 2075 2100

41 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area According to B1 scenario till 2100 (Without Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders) 2100207520502025 Year 1058.81021.9752657.7 Total Area Affected (km2) 4.234.13.02.63 Total % of the Nile Delta Area

42 Expected SLR Till 2100 by Projected Increase in Air Temperature (A1F1 Scenario( 2100207520502025 Year 4.03.22.21.2 Temperature ( ºC) 72.0 (cm)55.0 (cm)34.0 (cm)13.0 (cm)ASLR at Alexandria 79.0 (cm)60.30 (cm)37.5 (cm)14.75 (cm)ASLR at Al-Burullus 144.0 (cm)109.6 (cm)68.8 (cm)27.9 (cm)ASLR at Port Said

43 Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario 20252050 2075 2100

44 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders) 2100207520502025 Year 29382348766.5701 Total Area Affected (km2) 11.759.43.12.8 Total % of the Nile Delta Area

45 Final Results Module (2) Considering Natural and Man-made Protection Systems

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47 Difference between Al-Manzala Lake water level and Al-Salam Canal Bank level Difference in Levels between the canal bank and lake water (m) Distance from the beginning of Al- Salam Canal (km zero at the Nile Damietta Branch) (km) Section Number 3.2881 2.84122 3.21163 3.6274 3.13385 2.68436

48 Al-Rodah (12 km) (2.84 m) Al-Lithy (27 km) (3.6 m) Al-Shipool (38 km) (3.13m) Al=Atwy (8km) (3.28m) Al-Manzala Lake Borders

49 West Al-Burullus Port (+1.5 m ) N Baltim (+2.0 m) E New Road to Kafr Al-Sheikh (+2.15) S Brimbal Area (+1.75 m) W West New Port (+1.5 m) - N Baltim (+2.0 m) - E New Road (+ 2.15 m) S Al-Burullus Lake Borders

50 Mohammed Ali Sea Wall at Abu Quir Bay

51 ِAlexandria Cornish Level

52 Final Results Module (2) Considering Mohammed Ali Sea Wall and Lakes Borders

53 Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100, (CoRI 2007) 2025 2050 2075 2100

54 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta Area According to CoRI measurements till 2100 (With Mohammed Ali wall lakes borders) 2100207520502025 Year 183.8139.2134.093.68 Total Area Affected (km2) 0.740.560.540.37 Total % of the Nile Delta Area

55 Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario 2025 2050 2075 2100

56 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (B1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall lake's borders) 2100207520502025 Year 243.1221.83169.45118.5 Total Area Affected (km2) 0.970.890.680.45 Total % of the Nile Delta Area

57 Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario 2025 2050 20752100

58 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall and lake's borders) 2100207520502025Year 761.4450256.27152.86 Total Area Affected (km2) 3.011.81.030.61 Total % of the Nile Delta Area

59 On-going Projects Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Nile Delta Coastal Zone, Egypt, 2009-2012 Funded by International Development Research Centre (IDRC)International Development Research Centre Main Objective Research project addresses vulnerability assessment and adaptation options for potential impact of SLR in coastal zone Case study application in Ras ElBar - Gammasa Region

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61 Project Overview Project Components Expected OutcomesExpected Outputs 1. Regulatory Framework and Institutional Capacity Enhanced capacity to improve resilience of coastal settlements and development infrastructure is strengthened  Output 1.1 Coastal development legislation and regulations modified (focusing on ICZM and EIA);  Output 1.2 Institutional capacity of NCZMC strengthened;  Output 1.3 Information systems established that reflect climate change impacts/research on coastal zones  Output 1.4 Budgetary planning of Shore Protection Agency enacted to reflect climate change risks; 2. On the ground measures Innovative and environmentally friendly adaptation measures enforced within the framework of Nile Delta ICZM.  Output 2.1 Innovative adaptation pilot activities implemented to protect vulnerable coastal lagoons;  Output 2.2 Socio-economic assessment and adaptation option appraisal undertaken;  Output 2.3 Integration of climate risk assessment into the ICZM framework for the Nile Delta 3. Knowledge management M&E framework and knowledge management system in place  Output 3.1 M&E system with measureable indicators introduced;  Output 3.2 Lessons codified and disseminated through the Adaptation Learning Mechanism (ALM)  Output 3.3 Lessons disseminated throughout Egyptian Institutions.

62 Main Objectives Assess vulnerability for key infrastructures and prediction of changes in soil salinity Survey of drainage system infrastructure; main canals, hydraulic structures ;pump stations, WWTP; and important buildings/roads Field investigations in selective profiles for collecting data of soil and ground water properties Results Majority of drainage infrastructures can be considered in safe zone Predicted changes in soil salinity as a result of SLR showed expand of affected distance to reach 1 Kilometer from shoreline of the study area by year 2100 Progress in Project: Selective results Vulnerability of Drainage System Infrastructures and projected changes in soil salinity with Expected SLR

63 Progress in Project: Selective results Impact of SLR on Groundwater and Salinity Intrusion Main objective Predict changes in salt intrusion and elevation in groundwater levels Results Potential advancement of saltwater/freshwater interface and groundwater rise for SLR scenarios in years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 Vulnerability analysis that highlighted spots with low resilience capacity and hence need for special attention Mitigation strategy with alternative policies for adaptation to be considered within the study area

64 Predicted Movement of Salinewater/Freshwater interface 2025 2050 2075 2100

65 Expected GW depths in 2100 due to SLR

66 Vulnerability assessment Regions of concern spots more susceptible to water logging as a result of land level, soil properties and GW depth

67 Changes in Wave Climate and Sediment Transport Main Objectives Check the effect of global warming in wave climate and sediment transport in front of the Nile delta coast Follow the effect of changes in bed morphology on wave characteristics and sediment transport Process Measurements of wave data in years1998 and 2010 Simulation of wave distribution using ImSedTran-2D model Simulation of sediment transport using GENESIS

68 Changes in Wave Climate

69 Changes in Wave Characteristics

70 Changes in Wave Climate Wave Climate19982010 Significant wave height0.94 m1.31 m Average wave height0.5 m0.76 m Predominant wave directionNorth NorthWest (NNW) NorthWest (NW) Average storm height2.75 m2.46 m Total duration of storms1.6 day/year3.5 day/year predominant storm directionNorthNorthWest

71 Changes in Sediment Transport Locationgross sediment transport rate Gamassa to Damietta harbor348000 m3/year east of Damietta harbor1342000 m3/year west of the Damietta harborno noticeable change in sediment transport

72 Regular Gathering with Civil Society Stakeholders & local community categories In cooperation with the project partners, CoRI rganizes and hold meeting with civil society stakeholders and various categories of the community in the study area for: Raising awareness Encourage involvement Guaranteed advocacy and cooperation from their part in upcoming stages Consultation for optimized adaptation policies

73 Positions of the surveyed beach profiles analyzed in this study

74 Significance Short-term and long-term shoreline change Locationlong-term changeShort-term change Damietta Promontory between profiles P41 and P47 Emotional processes (- 38.2 m/year) Erosion along Damietta promontory tip has been terminated as a result of the construction of the 6-km long seawall in 1996-2002 East of Damietta Promontory (The Damietta spit ). No spit Accretion with a rate (3 m/year) and formation of the spit. Ras El Bar BeachErosion with a rate (- 7.7 m/year) Accretion with a rate (15 m/year) due to building eight detached breakwaters.

75 Significance Short-term and long-term shoreline change Locationlong-term changeShort-term change East of Damietta harborNo erosionA maximum rate of erosion -13 m/year West of Damietta harbor Erosion with a rate (5 m/year). Accretion with a rate (15m/year). Gamasa EmbaymentAccretion with a maximum rate of 20m/year. The maximum rate of accretion become 16 m/year Erosion appears east of Gamasa drain with a rate( -9 m/year and -4 m/year)

76 Continuity & Application GEF project Adaptation to Climate Change in the Nile Delta through Integrated Coastal Zone Management Global Environment Facility Goal Enhance Egypt’s resilience and reduce vulnerability to Climate Change impacts through ICZM in context of CC

77 Adaptation Assessment

78 Adaptation Supporting Systems

79 Adaptive Supporting Systems According to IPCC summary report for decision makers, Nov. 2007, it is recommended to create wetlands in areas vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in low lying deltas. (Al-Manzalla, Al-Burullus, Idku, and Maryot Lakes are one of the natural adaptation processes). Protection constructions carried out by Shore Protection Authority (SPA) (Damietta, Rosetta, and Al-Burullus). Natural sand dunes systems Mohammed Ali Wall which protects low lands at Abu-Quir Bay in the western region of the Nile Delta.

80 Resources and capacities of Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) built since 1971 and other related-research institutions in Egypt. The international road could act as the second defensive line to protect north zone of the country. In this concern, it should be mentioned that UNDP in 1992 had a roundtable meeting about considering the road as a mitigation measure against the impact of sea level rise. Al-Salam Canal goes by Al-Manzalla Lake and its banks have levels more that two meters above lake's water level. Aerial-photos used in the study do not consider the canal as they were established before its construction.

81 Natural chain of coastal sand dunes and the international coastal road International coastal road

82 Sand Dunes at Middle Delta Coast and coastal protection works

83 Sand Dunes At the West Side of Rosseta Region

84 Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Protected Cultivated Low Lands (1.5m - 2.5m Below Sea Level) حائط محمد على

85 Abu Quir Bay Low Lands (1.5 – 2.5 m Below Sea Level) Protected By Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Muhammed Ali Sea Wall

86 Ras Al Bar Ras Al-Bar Resort Under Sea Attack Before the Construction of Protection Works

87 Detached Breakwater Ras Al-Bar Resort Has Gained Lands After the Construction of Protection Works

88 Adaptation Process and Policies

89 Sand dunes systems should be treated as the first defensive line for the Nile Delta. Decision makers in coastal governorates as well as concerned ministers should be aware of the importance of sand dunes systems and their role in protecting the coastal zone of the Nile Delta. Consideration should be paid to coastal lakes as one of the most appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise. Coastal international road should be considered as the second protection measure and studies to support it are urgently required. Coastal protection constructions need regular maintenance and should be considered in any coastal zone management plans. The northwest coast extended from Alexandria to the Egyptian-Libyan borders is not vulnerable as it has elevation more than 10 m above average sea water level.

90 Recommendations Capacity building in terms of staff, technologies, modeling, ….etc. A comprehensive national and regional response strategy Coordinative actions to minimize risks and maintain ecosystem Preparation of integrated coastal zone management scheme Research budget and funds should be increased to cope with the national and international crisis regarding climate change and its impacts and adaptation studies. Building co-operative mechanizm to integrate all efforts Awareness program and media campaign Regional monitoring and observation system Regional data base and knowledge exchange system Regular Maintenance program for protection structures The following aspects are recommended to be covered in further studies for the coastal zones:  Potential impacts on land and groundwater salinity  Potential impacts on patterns of waves and currents

91  Potential impacts on erosion and accretion systems due to currents, waves, and wind actions  Potential impacts on lakes ecosystems  Potential impacts on water resources and drainage systems  Potential impacts on fisheries due to changes expected in current patterns  Potential impacts on infrastructures and natural resources of the coastal zone of the Nile Delta  Potential impacts of climate changes on evaporation from oceans and seas open waters and their role in reducing SLR  Potential impacts of temperature increase on phyto- plankton role in absorbing CO2 and generating A2.

92 Thank You All