It’s rare in life that you get a do-over. But when it comes to picking who will the national title in this unpredictable college basketball season, we should all be given multiple chances.
In the preseason, we asked our experts to forecast the 2024 NCAA Tournament champion. The top two vote-getters were Duke and Michigan State. Who then proceeded to play a very ugly game in the Champions Classic, with the Blue Devils prevailing. Either or both could still make some March magic, but neither would be among the betting favorites today.
So, with almost three months of games in the books, we gave our panel another shot at making a title pick. And since no clear, dominant team has emerged yet this season, we wished them good luck. Here’s how it turned out:
Now let’s hear the reasoning behind these selections …
UConn
I picked Duke back in the preseason, but I don’t have quite as much confidence in the Blue Devils now to win six straight games in March. Jon Scheyer’s team has finally rounded into form after a rough first month of the season, but Duke’s lack of size, its dependence on shooting well, and a few injury concerns have given me pause. Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach have been sensational this season, but if Duke runs up against a longer, athletic team in the tournament — like it did against Tennessee last season — then this roster could have some trouble.
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So I’m pivoting. Instead, at the midway point of the season, give me … UConn, and our first repeat national champion since Florida almost two decades ago. (We are old.) The Huskies have been near unbeatable this season, and that’s with a pretty wild lack of roster continuity. First Stephon Castle was injured and out, then Donovan Clingan — whose Cling Kong nickname we collectively need to use more — and even Cam Spencer was dealing with a toe injury. And yet, Dan Hurley’s team has pretty much kept it rolling. I truly don’t know how you defend a full-strength UConn, which can beat you in any number of ways. The Huskies’ defense isn’t perfect, but with an offense like this — not to mention valuable experience and good length — there’s a lot to write home about. Tristen Newton has cooled off some from his nuclear-hot start to the season, and Clingan is still getting back to full strength, but UConn’s ability to win despite not looking its best has me convinced the Huskies could realistically go back-to-back. — Brendan Marks
If not a full-blown wart, I can find a legitimate worry with every other title contender. Other than staying healthy (not a small thing!), I have none with the Huskies. Full-strength UConn is the most complete team in the country. There’s just so many ways to hurt you, inside and outside. Not only is the offense lethal, with shooters all over the floor, but no team in the country has such an elite combo-ability to score and deny scoring around the rim. Hurley is the hottest architect in college basketball right now, and he’s built another winner. — Kyle Tucker
This season has been a rollercoaster for top-15 teams, but the Huskies stand out. Despite challenges without Clingan, their mix of youth and experience is impressive. Since the Florida Gators in 2006-07, no team has clinched back-to-back national championships, but the Huskies are poised to change that this year. Ranked within the top 15 in effective field goal percentage and top 35 in defensive efficiency, the Huskies possess a potent combination come tournament time. With a roster boasting championship experience and a standout player like Newton, a likely All-America candidate, the Huskies are well-equipped to repeat — Tobias Bass
Purdue
The Boilermakers have looked like the most dominant team when they’re on. Zach Edey is the most unguardable player in the country, and he now has a true Robin in Braden Smith, who has been one of the best point guards in college basketball. Smith has benefitted from the addition of Lance Jones. The game plan that Fairleigh Dickinson used last year — full-court pressure and surrounding Edey — no longer works against this group. Jones and Smith can handle the pressure, and Purdue is shooting the ball so much better that it’s making defenses who give too much attention to Edey pay. Matchups will be important, because a stretch center and scoring point guard can give Purdue issues, but Matt Painter has the best team and a group that, like Virginia in 2019, is after redemption. — CJ Moore
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In a year where nothing feels reliable, I am going with the one constant force in college basketball: Zach Edey. The Boilers are also just different enough from last year’s team — thank largely to the athleticism injected via Lance Jones — to fix what ailed them. And I believe that emotion (in this case anger/humiliation) when properly channeled, can carry a team in March. — Dana O’Neil
Arizona
A new pick for me with about the same nonexistent level of confidence as I have with preseason picks. I shifted off Duke because, while the Blue Devils may yet improve given some of the youth in the rotation, the defensive issues seem ripe for exploiting before they make it to April 8. Arizona, meanwhile, has a top=5 offense and defense. The Wildcats shoot it extremely well but don’t live or die by the 3-pointer. There are multiple options if one primary scorer goes cold. They’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, if EVERYONE goes cold. The recent conference road losses don’t faze me, because everyone is losing on the road. Arizona has a lot of paths to winning if one part of its operation goes haywire. — Brian Hamilton
Baylor
Fun fact: Each of the last six national champions entered the NCAA Tournament with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked sixth or better nationally. So, if the tournament began today, I’d narrow my final pick strictly to those with a top-10 offense: Alabama, Purdue, UConn, Kentucky, Baylor, Wisconsin, Duke, Arizona, Auburn and Illinois.
Of that group, only Purdue, UConn, Baylor and Arizona were ranked in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP poll. Why does that matter? As ESPN’s John Gasaway has long noted, each of the last 19 national champions have all been ranked in the top 12 in that season’s Week 6 AP poll.
Of this group, I don’t trust Purdue. The scar tissue is real, both theirs and mine, and I can’t reasonably pick a champion that lost to Northwestern and Nebraska in the same season. So they’re out, sorry. I am also dropping UConn (whom yours truly successfully predicted to win it all midseason last year, fwiw) solely because it’s reallllly hard to win back-to-back.
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So, that leaves Arizona and Baylor. The Wildcats are the more obvious choice. Probably a better team. More talent. More depth. Balance. Inside-outside scoring. Which of course means, I’ll take the Bears. It’s not far-fetched. Yes, the defense needs to improve, and I don’t like picking title winners reliant on multiple freshmen, but let’s just call it a gut play. (But maybe also put a futures pick on Zona, too.) — Brendan Quinn
North Carolina
I think Kansas and Houston are at the top and legit contenders, but I fear the gauntlet of Big 12 regular-season play will hinder a March Madness run for them and their fellow conference members. North Carolina defends, has experience, can play inside out with RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, has a freshman breakout candidate in Elliot Cadeau, takes care of the ball, rebounds, can shoot the 3 well enough and guards it even better. Plus, the Tar Heels should have a smoother path to the postseason thanks to a significantly weakened ACC slate on the heels of a challenging non-conference schedule. — Justin Williams
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Tennessee
I picked Duke in the preseason in large part because I anticipated a huge breakout for Tyrese Proctor. Still waiting on that one. I have no idea who’s going to win this thing, so I’m going bold. Why the Volunteers? Because Rick Barnes finally has the offense to match his manhandling defense, starting with microwave scorer Dalton Knecht. We’re used to seeing Tennessee struggle to score 60 points as they bow out of the NCAA Tournament, but that shouldn’t happen this year. These have been the Vols’ point totals in their last four SEC wins: 91, 85, 85 and 90. Since Zakai Zeigler regained his pre-ACL tear form in December, Tennessee has been hard to beat; per Bart Torvik, they rank No. 3 in adjusted efficiency since Christmas Day, behind only Houston and Tennessee.
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There are size concerns here; if Jonas Aidoo gets in foul trouble, this team gets pretty small pretty quickly, and that could be fatal against an Edey or a Clingan. And of course, the elephant in the arena is Barnes, who’s not exactly known as Mr. March. Then again, if you’re banking on a Purdue breakthrough in the tournament, why not Tennessee? In a season where very few preconceived notions have held true, let’s go for a true paradigm-shifter. But ask me — and all of us — again on Selection Sunday. — Brian Bennett
More midseason coverage:
Shot Takers: And the midseason college basketball awards go to …
Midseason catch-up: Title contenders, Cinderellas, the bubble and more
Midseason All-America team: Zach Edey, R.J. Davis, Jaedon LeDee and more
(Top photo of North Carolina’s Armando Bacot and UConn’s Donovan Clingan from December: Rich Schultz / Getty Images)