Deterring would-be putschists in Africa is getting harder

Africa’s young democrats often employ only black humour at the frequent sight on TV of uniformed men announcing that they have overthrown the government. Some find levity in discussing the sartorial dilemmas they must face (dress uniform or camouflage, beret or bare head?). Others mock state television stations for running interminable wildlife documentaries to avoid screening the unfolding chaos.

Jokers would once have had little to work with. In 2000 the African Union (AU) set out a “no coup policy” based on the threat of swift suspension from African institutions, isolation and sanctions. Regional blocs like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) held a firm line, too. It seemed to work. In the 1990s Africa suffered 16 successful coups. In the 2000s that fell to eight, a figure that was repeated in the 2010s. Yet since the start of 2020 there have been nine successful coups, including one in Gabon on August 30th. What happened to deterrence?