Is this new Arms Race turning into the Cold War 2.0?
The status quo and the catalyst...
If the looming Evergrande catastrophe wasn’t enough, (a $300B debt bubble doesn’t just magically disappear and China could be looking at all in, a $4T debt bomb) or the fact that the world real estate markets are far from stable, there’s unfortunately a very relevant and much darker datapoint to be aware of….
In late August, China tested a new Hypersonic missile that caught America Intelligence services completely by surprise. This new technology circled the globe with incredible accuracy before hitting its designated target (within 25 miles). And being sub-orbit, it fast. VERY fast. Hypersonics travel at 5X the speed of sound (6,200 KPH/3,850 MPH). Its capable of such incredible speeds thanks to a new glide vehicle and can carry a nuclear payload. Although China says it was testing a “space vehicle,” it should be clear hypersonic technology is virtually undetectable and virtually impossible to intercept. But wait, there’s more. Because the design, altitude and speed, in theory, it could fly over the South Pole. That’s problematic for the US military as the America strategic defense tracking system (NORAD) is designed and focused on the Northern polar routes across the artic, not the South.
• Gravitas: China test Hypersonic nuclear missiles?
“Such a capability could potentially allow China to execute a nuclear strike on any target on earth with near-impunity and very little warning.” - The Drive
• China surprises U.S. with hypersonic missile test, FT reports
• Gravitas: China’s $4T Debt bomb explodes
What’s probably most unsettling is that the US Intelligence services were left scratching their head as yet they didn’t see it coming. “We have no idea how they did this,” one source said.
“China’s advancement on hypersonic weapons poses a very unique threat to US defense,” said Taylor Fravel to Financial Times. Fravel is an expert on Chinese nuclear weapon policy and believes that the hypersonic glide vehicle could potentially “negate” the US missile defense system. “Hypersonic glide vehicles fly at lower trajectories and can maneuver in flight, which makes them hard to track and destroy,” Fravel told Financial Times. That means the US’s system to destroy incoming missiles might prove ineffective in the event of an attack.
Historical Precedent:
One would hope that people learn from lessons of the past. Perhaps it’s the human condition but as we repeatedly learn, that is rarely the case. This wasn’t the first time.
Unfortunately, this isn’t the first case of American Intelligence being caught “asleep at the wheel” nor was this the first example of this technology. In the 60’s at the height of the Cold war (1.0), the USSR launched a System called a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) and was a nuclear deliver system (FOBS – Wikipedia). As it was based in kinetics, it had virtually no range limit – also with the ability to travel over either pole, - also designed for low orbit, - also virtually undetectable… and also a complete surprise the US Intelligence services… Sounds familiar…
I only wish we could do better at learning from the past….
The Black Budget may be gone but its not forgotten.
Bear in mind, despite Eisenhower’s dark warning “Beware the Military Industrial Complex,” its here, alive and well. In case you’re unfamiliar with the “Black Budget,” iorigins stem from the Manhattan project driven out of fear one could (in theory) backward engineer based on budgeting – thus they produced a impenetrable cloak of fiscal accountability (not subject to GAO oversight) – the Black Budget. By the end of Reagan/Bush, 25% of all pentagon spending was in the black and supported much of the intelligence budget. Today, more than half of America’s national budget is for defense… The current US for defense budget is so high, not only is it by far the highest in the world, its in higher that the next 10 countries - Combined. And most of them are considered allies. Now add this: since Vietnam, America has never stopped fighting and has been in conflict since, somewhere. Almost seems like a self-sustaining conflict engine. Makes ya think.
The World Economic Forum says that Global Defense Spending at the highest since the cold war. (Global defense spending is at a record high – 4 charts that show where the money goes
Are we moving into a COLD WAR 2.0?
Now, I’m not a hawk by any measure but I’m also not blind. Now, more than ever, I thinks it’s a categorical imperative foe each individual to think critically not driven by popularity to an FB or social media speciation, to pay attention to factual (the key being factual from a reputable source – and then cross check it), look at he evidence and the clues, not someone’s “interpretation” and draw your own conclusions. Its all about the data.
I draw no conclusions but encourage you to research for yourself and draw your own.
Disclaimer: Although I confess to be a recovering defense contractor from many years ago, there is nothing here but science, verifiable history, readily available data, methodical logic and cognitive processing without bias (as best one can).
Michael Fox
21 October, 2021
Owner, Wm. Morse Editions
2yVery interesting, Mike!