What is trend forecasting, and why is it relevant for my brand?
Our world is changing and the way we work needs to adapt to these unprecedented times.
It's safe to say that the creative process of designing products for consumers has been dramatically impacted by COVID-19. It is vital for designers to develop relevant products to fit consumers’ demands. Trend forecasting provides designers with consumer insights to strengthen their product ranges for a post coronavirus world.
Trend Forecasting is the process of researching and formulating predictions on consumers future buying habits. By identifying the source, tracing the evolution, and recognising patterns of trends, forecasters are able to provide designers and brands with a ‘vision’ of the future. Forecasters research and identify social, cultural, ethical or environmental shifts, and how they are likely to affect future consumer behaviour. Through this process, they can identify products and services that consumers will be looking to buy.
There are different types of forecasts; Long term forecasting, also known as ‘macro trends’, look at broader directional pointers that indicate the way society is changing. A macro trend forecast provides a picture of consumer lifestyles, and offers predictions that affect across categories. Short term forecasting and close-to-season reports, provide a much more prescriptive sense of what consumers will be wanting in the next 6–12 months. These Seasonal forecasts typically provide information on colour, fabric, print and pattern, styling, key items, and overall aesthetics.
How are trend forecasts created?
Trends are a response to a consumer need, or to a cultural change which pushes them towards a new, more acceptable product. There are methodologies to identify emerging trends and techniques in predicting their scale and longevity.
Identifying what has ‘sparked’ a consumer trend is often a good starting point. There are common ways a trend occurs such a new technology or fabric innovation being introduced, a ‘Pendulum swing’ or a ‘Fashion cycle’.
The pendulum swing refers to the movement of fashion between extremes, for example, fluctuations between long and short hemlines, fitted or oversized silhouettes. A historic example would be Dior’s ‘New Look’, characterized by full skirts and volumes of fabric, it was a dramatic shift away from restrictive wartime garments. A more recent pendulum swing example is the move away from the dominating Activewear or the 2010s, toward a much more feminine and romantic aesthetic.
Fashion and Interior trends can also be cyclical. As ‘fashion looks’ or interior styles move further into the past, the perception of it changes, it somehow looks ‘fresh’ again. First introduced by James Laver in the 1930s, cyclical fashion theory explains that when an aesthetic or style is neglected for some time it is ripe for revival.
Once a trend is identified, a range of tools can be used to hypothesise the impact (level of adoption) and length of a trend. A ‘product diffusion curve’ or ‘innovation curve’ is a visualization of the spread of innovation through a social system.
How can trend insights benefit my business?
Trends signal the emerging needs of the consumer, and as a designer, you can capitalize on their potential for turning a profit. By understanding consumer shifts and product trend predictions, businesses can both avoid bad product choices and capture market opportunities.
A common dilemma for a Designer or Buyer is having the confidence to really ‘back’ a style. Trend forecasting can help validate a design idea or direction you have for your brand, helping you know which trends to act on and when. Using trend insights effectively can strengthen your brand’s DNA, providing you have a clear knowledge of your customer, your brand’s USP, your limitations (delivery, MOQ’s etc), by adding a layer of trend insights you can harness the power of trend forecasting to help your business grow.
Now more than ever it is important for forecasters to support businesses and designers with their professional expertise. Access to professional trend forecasting has traditionally been expensive, however, the landscape is changing with many independent consultants and services offering more bespoke and tailored reports and solutions. It is time to really invest in trend and insights in order for your brand to survive.
Nice article! Ash A.
Futures Researcher, Strategist & Consultant | Holistic & Speculative Designer | Educator
3yLove it Ash 😊👌🏻
Debaterly Founding Partner, Chief Strategy & Growth Officer - Helping all students have fun learning how to think and communicate better, so they can improve their lives and the fabric of society
3yGreatly appreciate your perspective, Ash. would like to add a bit of mine. Creative disruption is occurring at an ever-accelerating rate, which to a futurist means that the disrupted have simply missed the curve and been forced to play catch-up by invoking “fast-and-lean” processes. That game will only become more and more intense as Big Data, Machine Learning, and Artificial Intelligence drive their roots deeply into every facet of industry and our lives. A seemingly chaotic cluster of evidence–signs and (even weak) signals of disparate exogenous market forces–hold the answer. But without a way to codify them, to understand why and how the dots between them connect, it is difficult not only to distinguish their meaning and how they will manifest and evolve but also what their impact will be on consumers and businesses. That is where insight begins: Identifying the reductive truths of how these meta-forces shaping the future will change human needs. And not just in the future, rather the evolving now-next-future. That requires a validated, repeatable process combined with instructive, strategic application. In other words, a roadmap to the future of (name your category, industry, geography, or consumer cohort, here). Only by identifying at the root level those human needs that have not yet manifested in marketplace behavior but lie ahead buried in a significant weight of highly credible evidence, will it then possible for creators to anticipate rather than react when it’s too late. To seize market primacy instead of spending heavily to capture market share from the first-to-market leader. To transform one’s business to be future led, rather than chasing after it. To have a durable roadmap to guide and optimize positioning, go-to-market strategy, branding, design innovation, and even cultural activation.