Cesarewitch 21st Century trends

The jumps stars will soon be dusting off their hooves to get underway for the year, but before all that, the flat still has a few treats in store.

The Breeders Cup and Melbourne Cup fixtures are now firmly on the horizon, as are a selection of big-field domestic handicap puzzles for punters to solve.

Topping the pile for the stayers is the historic 2m2f Cesarewitch Handicap at HQ, which, according to NewBettingSites, is scheduled to be one of the most popular betting events of October.

Here, we look back at the 23 editions of this cracking contest to have been held in the current century and pick out a few trends which may assist when attempting to zero in on the winner.

Age of winner

There is no overwhelming trend in evidence here. The four and six-year-old age groups fare best with six wins apiece over this period.

On balance, focussing on the 4-7 year range seems the most sensible approach, with 19 of 23 winners (82.61%) falling into this bracket. The one major outlier is 2008 champ Caracciola, who defied Father Time to come home in front for Nicky Henderson.

Weight carried by winner

These days, the minimum weight for the Cesarewitch is 8st2lb. Nevertheless, it appears the more lightly weighted runners in the line-up hold a slight edge.

When looking at the above graph, 16 winners carried less than 9st, compared to 7 who carried 9st or more, resulting in a roughly 70%-30% split in favour of those with a lower weight.

Official rating of winner

In common with many high-value handicaps, the quality of the Cesarewitch winner has been slowly edging up over time, as evidenced by the ascending trend line.

Overall, the average rating of the winner over this period comes in at 91.57, with the Median value slightly lower at 89. Over this period, 16 of 23 winners (70%) have carried within 6lbs of the average value.

Trainer trends: National Hunt yards just hold the edge

Given the nature of this event - and the £200,000 in total prize money on offer - it is no surprise that many of the top National Hunt trainers can’t resist taking a shot at Cesarewitch glory – and they often do so with excellent effect.

When looking at the past 23 editions, 13 have fallen to an exclusively National Hunt or Mixed yard, with Alan King (1 win), Charles Byrnes (1 win), Martin Pipe (2 Wins), Nicky Henderson (3 wins), Philip Hobbs (2 wins), Tony Marin (1 win), and Willie Mullins (3 wins) all chipping in.

Topping the recent table amongst the flat trainers are Brian Meehan and Mark Johnston, with two wins apiece.

Fate of the favourite

30+ runner handicaps are invariably tricky to solve. The tally of four winning favourites from the past 23 editions is, therefore, a respectable result – but one which would have still resulted in a £0.50 loss to £1 level stakes.

Overall, the 21st century has seen six winners at a single figure SP, ten winners at 10/1-20/1 and seven winners at 25/1+ - the biggest boilovers coming in the shape of 66/1 shots Aaim To Prosper, who was winning the race for a second time in 2012, and Scatter Dice one year later in 2013.

Interesting contenders

Gordon Elliott’s Pied Piper is the one the market has latched onto in 2023 and ticks many boxes as a five-year-old from a top National Hunt yard.

Currently set to carry 9st3lb, he sits just outside the preferred weight range but otherwise has plenty going for him.

Hughie Morrison’s Vino Victrix is another to catch the eye, as a 90-rated five-year-old set to carry 8st11lb.

Whilst more commonly associated with his flat string, Morrison also regularly has over 100 runners per season over jumps, bringing him into the favoured mixed trainer's category.

Further down the betting list, Goshen’s flat rating of 88 certainly looks workable on the pick of his hurdles exploits.

The seven-year-old doesn’t score highly in the reliability stakes but could go well if putting it all together for Gary Moore, whilst Syd Hosie’s Temporize ticks a lot of the right boxes and arrives in form having landed a competitive event at Goodwood on his most recent outing.