Nils Höglander has been chasing Elias Pettersson for a long time.
As a 16 year old, Höglander found himself playing junior hockey for Timrå, the hockey club in central Sweden where the Canucks’ No. 1 centre first rose to prominence.
Two years Pettersson’s junior, the speedy, industrious Höglander looked up to Pettersson, knowing he was going to be a player to know in the years to come.
Like Pettersson, Höglander was playing well above his age grade: Höglander bumped up from the U16 squad to the U18 squad, Pettersson from the U18 squad to the U20 squad and then to the full senior men’s team.
Höglander, though, found his own game. Whereas Pettersson had a long frame to fill out and work with, working toward an all-around skillset that would control the game with his feet, vision and puck skills, Höglander had to focus on being able to get underneath bigger defenders, to fight for position, to win pucks down low and get shots off quickly.
He was very good at these things in his draft year, by then playing for Rögle in the Swedish Hockey League — he had a star performance for Sweden at the World Juniors along the way — the question going forward was to enhance his talents enough to become a dependable, if not outstanding, NHLer.
He has been in the NHL for four seasons now, but it took a while for him to get to where he is today : finally on Elias Pettersson’s wing.
On draft day 2019, Höglander said he hoped to model his game after the likes of Kevin Fiala and Viktor Arvidsson , both powerful, creative, puck-possession-focused wingers.
He’s not quite the passer those players are, but he is proving to be a finisher of their ilk.
Let’s take a closer look at Höglander’s season, which saw him skate away from being a potential trade-chip to a key player for the Canucks’ five-on-five attack.
3
Heading into Thursday’s home game versus the Detroit Red Wings, Höglander had scored in three straight games, all while on Pettersson’s wing.
That he has scored three in a row isn’t a surprise — he’s scored 17 goals this season — nor is it a big surprise that he has slotted quite nicely onto a line that is looked to to provide offence.
He is three goals away from scoring 20 goals and when he hits that mark, there will be cause for the likes of former scouting director Judd Brackett and current assistant to the general manager Ryan Johnson to puff their chests out a little bit.
Brackett, of course, was raving about Höglander’s potential on draft day in 2019, saying he had some of the best hands in the draft and highlighting his “motor” — aka his relentless work on the forecheck and strong abilities in puck battles. His feet never stop moving.
Höglander was re-assigned to AHL Abbotsford halfway through last season, where Johnson and his staff were tasked with helping Höglander rediscover the strengths of his game. By the end of the regular season and the playoffs, Höglander was Abbotsford’s best player, head and shoulders above his peers in how he dominated shifts, how he created scoring chances for himself and his peers, how he won puck battles all over the ice.
He is a credit to Johnson’s program, one that is hoping to refit Vasily Podkolzin’s game in similar terms.
5.45
If there’s one number that tells us Höglander’s thriving by getting to the net, it’s the fact he’s getting 5.45 high-danger chances on his own per 60 minutes of ice time, according to Natural Stat Trick.com .
That’s the best rate of his career. It is also the best rate on the team this year.
High-danger chances isn’t a perfect stat — it doesn’t account for how the puck got to the shooter, for instance, or what the goalie is doing — but it does tell us how often a player is getting the puck off his stick within a few feet of the opposition goal.
As everyone likes to say, goals are hard to score in the NHL, but if you’re getting chances from in tight, you have a good chance of scoring.
2.35
The takeaway stat is another imperfect metric, but it does seem to be reflective of forechecking prowess. And there are only two forwards on the Canucks with a better takeaway rate than Höglander: Conor Garland and Elias Pettersson.
Höglander is responsible for 2.35 takeaways every 60 minutes of even-strength ice time, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Garland is obviously one of the Canucks’ best at getting the puck off the opposition, and it’s no surprise that Höglander’s new centre is also very good at it.
If Höglander and Pettersson stay together, it’s easy to imagine them dominating possession, shift in, shift out.
23.6
The final number to take note of today is Höglander’s even-strength shooting percentage: 23.6 per cent.
That’s high. A large portion of scoring success is simply down to luck. So, yes, Höglander has had some luck this season.
But it does also help that he is getting so many chances close to the net. The closer your shot is to the net, generally the higher the chance of it going in.
To stick on Pettersson’s wing, then, will be more than just about scoring. How well will he manage the puck and sustain forechecks from here on?
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