Introduction to Futures Studies
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Introduction to Futures Studies
- 1. Introduction to Futures Studies By: Vahid Shamekhi Aug 2014
- 2. 9 Billion happy people on this planet?
- 3. Why Future Studies? systematically explore, create, and test both possible and desirable futures to improve decisions The purpose of futures methodology
- 4. strategically it is better better tomorrow without
- 5. Positive visions, untested by futures analysis
- 6. • If no general agreement exists about an organization's or nation's future direction, then how can one know what is useful or useless? • The lack of vision promotes aimlessness and apathy
- 7. The understanding of time is changing the perception of time is more open, what is possible and desirable? cyclical, rainy season more progressive and linear, more efficiency
- 8. identify what you don't know, but need to know, to make more intelligent decisions.
- 9. Why? To Succeed in Your Career To Prepare for Change To Choose Your Future To Make Better Decisions To Prevent Disasters To Seize Opportunitie s To Understand Today's World To Develop Self- Confidence To Expand Your Horizons
- 10. the only place from which to change the future is while past, present & future are all somehow interconnected
- 11. 9 Billion happy people on this planet?
- 23. Future???
- 24. Philosophical Assumptions Humans will have more influence on the future than they did in the past You cannot know the future, but a range of possible futures The likelihood of a future event or condition can be changed by policy, and policy consequences can be forecasted Gradations of foreknowledge and probabilities can be made; we can be more certain about the sunrise than about the rise of the stock market No single method should be trusted
- 25. What is Future Studies? To study potential change, not simply fads, but what is likely to make a systemic or fundamental difference over the next 10 to 25 years or more. As historians are supposed to tell us what happened and journalists tell us what is happening, futurists tell us what could happen and help us to think about what we might want to become. Multi-disciplinary examination of change in all major areas of life…
- 26. Not Prophecy Do not produce completely accurate or complete descriptions of the future,
- 28. Goal 1: Preferable to Probable Goal 2: Avoid Danger of Probable BP Disaster
- 30. Time Periods for Studying the Future Near Term: t<1 Short Range: 1<t<5 Middle Range: 5<t<20 Long Range: 20<t<50 Far: 50<t
- 32. Subjects Studied by Futurists The Global Mega crisis Issue •Global Population Growth; •Food and World Hunger; •Energy Sources (Traditional, Nonrenewable Fossil Fuels & Alternative, Renewable Energy Sources); •Environmental Pollution; •Sustainable Development; •Global Climate Change Global Peace, Conflict, and War Global Economic Trends Global Political Trends The End of the East-West Conflict and the Cold War The United Nations System and Global Governance North-South Relations and the Increasing Gap The Emergence of Larger Regional Economic Blocs
- 33. (A) High Technologies, such as: •Computers, Telecommunications, •Multimedia, Internet, Virtual Reality Technology •Genetic Engineering, •Space Exploration, •Nanotechnology (B) Appropriate or Intermediate Technologies, tied to Sustainable Development Societal Fragmentation Educational/Learning Trends; New Scientific Paradigms; Changing Cultural Paradigms; Global Spiritual/Religious/Consciousness Traditions and Trends Workplace Trends, including: New Management Styles; Employment/Job Trends; Technology & Jobs; Diversity and Women Working.
- 35. Planners Vs Futurists Multi-Disciplinary Time Horizon Output/ Input
- 37. Futures Studies and Culture Some believe the future is pre- determined by God Some believe the universe to be a dynamic self-creating God with humans as part of the process Some believe the future depend on chance, chaos theory,…
- 38. Plan for the Future Vs Plan or Invent the Future
- 39. Utility and Pitfalls of Analogy as a Short Cut
- 41. Correlations and Lead Indicators Four years before the fall of the Shah, Iran's ratio was 38 to 1.
- 43. Macro Micro
- 44. Quantitative Qualitative Normative Exploratory Agent Modeling * * Casual Layered Analysis * * Chaos and Non-Linear Dynamics Cross- Impact Analysis * * Decision Modeling * * Delphi Techniques * * Econometrics and Statistical Modeling * * Environmental Scanning * * Heuristic Modeling * * Field Anomaly Relavation * * Futures Wheel * * * Genius Forecasting, Vision and Intuition * * * Multiple Perspective * * * Participatory Methods * * Relavance Trees and Morphological Analysis * * Roadmapping * * * Robust Planning * * * Scenario Planning * * * * Simulation- Gaming * * Structured Analysis * * * System Modeling * * Technological Sequence Analysis * * Text mining * * * Trend Impact Analysis * *
- 47. Roadmapping
- 48. Kazakhstan Upstream Oil and Gas Technology and R&D Roadmap More than 300 industry representative… *10 Billions $ 230 possible technology 1. R&D Focus 2. Industry Opportunities 3. Learning & Skills Development The main benefit of technology roadmapping is that it supplies information to help make better technology investment decisions.
- 49. The client’s Board had set aggressive production targets for the new gas resources. development, acquisition and application of a number of technologies new to the company
- 50. For each technology, a detailed roadmap, including technology descriptions, business challenges, anticipated business impact, resource requirements, inter-dependencies with other technologies, expected deliverables, timings… Quick wins – relatively easy to implement and with the potential to recognize strong short-term impact 25 technologies new to the company Big wins – critical to reach production targets and/or increase ultimate recovery
- 51. What about MAPNA Group?
- 53. Next Step… Description of Methods/ Techniques Case Studies
- 55. References • Jerome C. Glenn, Futures Research Methodologies, 2009. • Curtis W. Roney, Intersections of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies, Journal of Future Studies, Nov 2010. • Ulf Pillkahn, Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development, 2008. • John Holmberg, Introduction to Future Studies, Barcelona, June 2011. • Linda Groff and Paul Smoker, Introduction to Future Studies, State University of California, 1999. • Stephen M. Millett, Should probabilities be used with scenarios?, 2008.
Editor's Notes
- The Goal is to make preferable or desirable futures more probable, by visualizing clearly what we want to create (including the values that we want a future world to be based on), and then committing energy, resources, time, and our lives to creating that future world. Another Goal is to also note possible futures, that though they might not be probable or likely, if they did occur, would have a great impact on people's lives. We should thus be aware of such possibilities.
- If there is no sanctions till 2020, What will be Mehran position in his business? Is there any joint venture possibilities with major competitors of the world for Mehran? Is there any strategic acquisition opportunities for mehran? What was way of development for a company like schlumberger? Which development strategies?